Sunday, December 29, 2013

NFL Week 17: Putting A Bow on a Ho Ho Ho Hum Year

For the final week of the season, I turned over prognosticating duties to The Legend. It was a rather disappointing season for yours truly. Lets face it, when you're a documented (and as Gary Koch once said, "better than most") 57% ATS since the start of the 2009 regular season-including a non LVH Contest year (unfortunately) in 2011, when I went 38-17-4 ATS (69%), going 50% ATS is unacceptable. Its a juice loser, and its as un-watchable and disgusting as some dope snapping his leg in half in one of those idiotic UFC matches.

So I truly do want to apologize to anyone who might've followed my picks to the letter. I can only say that I will try harder next year. And there will definitely be a next year. The Legend and I have already committed to the 2014 LVHSC and its $1,500 buy-in. So as they've said around Ashburn ever since Daniel Snyder bought your Washington Redskins, "we'll get them next year!"

The following 5 are The Legend's picks. And for the fuck of it, I picked every remaining game that he did not take. Please note, that although I finished .500, I did not have one single week where I won at least 4 games ATS. I had a lot of 3-2 and a couple 3-1-1 weeks, to offset the misery that was Week 2 (0-5 ATS). So if The Legend goes 4-1 or 5-0 this week, I will be crucified by him over electronic message, and I will be sure to share it with you on Monday or Tuesday.

The Legend's Five
Atlanta (+7)
Chicago (-4.5)....nice job Legend, picking this game prior to the Aaron Rodgers news, you dipshit...
NY Giants (-3.5)
Baltimore (+6)
Arizona (+1)
*Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book*

Yack's Shits and Giggles Picks
Jax (+10.5) at Indy
Jags were boat raced by Colts in Week 4. But Jags have played better the second half of the season, and have now covered 4 of last 5. Heading into the last week of the season, Andrew Luck is still contending for NFL's goofiest laugh and ugliest gums award, and it will deter his focus in this one. 24-16 Colts.

NY Jets at Miami (-6.5)
The Flippers have won three of the last four between these two, including absolute beat downs in the last two. And with the playoffs on the line, no need to change that now. Rumor has it Richie Incognito will be giving a pre-game pep talk to his estranged team, that he's entitled "Let's Go Kick Their Asses, You Fucking Ni**ers, Cr**kers, and Fa**ots!!!!" 31-14 Dolphins.

Detroit at Minnesota (-3)
The Lions have lost 5 out of 6, and the head banging coach who hates stronger than usual post game hand shakes could be on his way out. AP is out, but don't be discouraged from this easy ATS winner. The Vikings have covered 6 of their last 8, included 3 straight ATS and SU wins at home. Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out, Schwartzy. 29-23 Vikings.

Houston (+7) at Tennessee
I would feel guilty not to play the Texans this week, as they spent the entire 2013 f**king me like a 50 cent whore. And since I have only slightly more couth than Elliot Spitzer would have at a group home for troubled teenage women, I'm going back to the well for another piece of that Texans' ass. Don't look now, but these Texans who have lost 13 games in a row, last won a game when they played....24-23, Texans win a nail biter.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-7)
As much as it troubles me to bet against my adopted "second favorite team" while typing this from a stone's throw from downtown Cleveland, the Steelers have been one of the best teams ATS the second half of the season. And with a slight chance at post season play, they will lay the wood today to their hated divisional foe. The Big H.A.T. Nation has covered 6 of their last 7, including a 27-11 beat down of these Brownies in Cleveland a month ago. 26-14 Steelers.

Washington (+3) at NY Giants
RG3 is already in pre-production for a documentary that is set to be released the second week of next August. The working title is "All In For Preferential Treatment From My Owner". Kirk Cousins, in his final audition for one of the other 31 teams who eventually trades for him and then goes on to make the playoffs, keeps the Redskins hanging around in a game that pits two absolutely horseshit teams. Sidenote: next time someone wants to waste 10 minutes of your time telling you how an "elite Quarterback" is needed to win in the National Football League, tell them that a guy named Eli, whose won two rings in the last 6 years, currently has a 69.8 passer rating, which ranks worse than guys named Brandon Weeden and Matt McGloin. Shanahan goes out a winner (insert Jackie Martling laugh). 27-23 Redskins.

Buffalo (+7.5) at New England
The Patriots (somehow) with injuries up and down the field, and a bunch of no name players Tom Brady is throwing to, are a home win away from securing at least a 2 seed in the AFC playoff tournament. (Now tell me to go re-read what I just wrote about not needing an elite quarterback in the NFL, and then tell me to shove it up my stupid ass). Unfortunately for Pretty Boy Brady, he doesn't play run defense for the Pats, and you can expect Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller to murder (no pun intended, Pats fan) a Pats D that's yielding 130 yards+/per contest. 30-23 Patriots.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-11)
Remember when the Saints were many's pick to represent the NFC in the Snow Bowl in early February? Now they're a team who is bad day away from making tee times next weekend instead of playing post season football. No fear, N'Orleans. This game has boat race written all over it. After playing two tough road games against teams who can actually play defense, Drew Brees will have a field day against a  Bucs team who after showing some mid season life, has packed it in again. 44-23 Saints.

Denver (-10.5) at Oakland
Peyton Manning told Ron Burgundy during a Sportscenter interview this week, that he has done a pretty good job playing quarterback for a guy who doesn't have a mustache. On a side note, Kordell Stewart had a respectable career for a guy who had a beard. (He did have a beard, right? Or was that a goatee, I'm having trouble remembering). Question: Whose starting at QB for the Rai-duzz this week? Answer: Who gives a shit, who gives a fuck? It doesn't matter, I know whose starting for the Denver Broncos, and that dude can play. 38-17 Denver.

Kansas City at San Diego (-9.5)
Andy Reid is pulling his starters at halftime not because he wants to rest them for the playoffs next week, but because Chiefs' starting QB Alex Smith is a very good cook, and Reid wants Smith to make him some Turkey Mac and Fritters for Reid to eat in between the end of the 3rd Quarter and the start of the 4th. 27-6 Chargers.

St. Louis (+12) at Seattle
Hey Seattle, you've been crowned by virtually every talking head on the planet. You and that midget QB of yours might want to get back to scoring some points (16 points/per over their last 3 games).  I'll take Jeff Fisher (+12) over Pete Carroll 7 days a week and twice on football Sundays. 17-12 Suckhawks.

Philadelphia at Dallas (+6.5)
Philly gave up 48 points to a 4 win Vikings team two weeks ago. They also got stymied by this same Dallas team in Philly 8 weeks ago. Oh yeah, and LeSean McCoy was held to just 55 yards rushing in that 17-3 loss. The focus here should not be Tony Romo's injury. It should be that of two very average teams whose defenses absolutely suck (Philly 30th, Dallas 32nd), playing a win or go home game, and the home team is catching over a touchdown. Where do I sign up for easy money? Here, apparently. 26-24 Eagles.

Thanks for following along this year. The ATS picks will be back in September 2014. 

Sunday, December 22, 2013

NFL Week 16: Doing It Doggy Style

Minnesota (+7) at Cincinnati
Bungholes' punter Kevin Huber won't be sending a Christmas card to Steelers special teamer Terence Garvin this year. Unless, of course, the Christmas card says, "Best Wishes This Christmas Season, You Cocksucker. I Really Appreciate You Breaking My Fucking Jaw and Cracking My Vertebra. Eating-errrrrrrrrr, Drinking Liquid Foods From a Straw is About as Appealing as The Stank That Emits From The Crotches of 95% of The Steelers' Female Fan Base. I Hope You Get Your Dick Stuck in an Elevator Door or Something., You Asshole. Ho!Ho!Ho!"

The Bungholes will probably win this game, in fact, they will win this game. But this is entirely too many points against a team who has found their stride during the second half of the 2013 campaign. Here is the dilly-yo: the purple people eaters have covered 4 straight, 6 of their last 7, and they've scored 20 points or more in 8 straight games, which is the stat that I'm actually more impressed with. In fact, during that 8 game span, they're averaging 28.6 points per contest, which relative to season totals vs the rest of the league, would rank them 3rd. Not to go college football angle on you, but next week's tilt vs divisional foe Bal'more could be creeping in Marvin Lewis and the Bungholes minds already. 27-22 Bungholes.

Denver at Houston (+10.5)
I've lost so much money and so much ground in this stupid contest betting on Houston this year, that I've decided to bet on Houston again this week. On a side-note, I enjoy punching myself in the balls repeatedly, just for the fuck of it. (Does anyone recall my "NFL Game of The Year", the weekend I was in Vegas visiting The Legend? I do. I had to blow the cabbie just to give me a ride back to the airport.....#LostAllMyMoneyOnTheTexans)

Think of this as a game of roulette, and you see that the tote board has posted 12 straight reds (Texans losses). Black is due, right? And in this case, black represents a win or for what I'm concerned about, a win against the number. During Houston's 12 game slide into oblivion, the Toxins have been a 7 point dog or higher twice, and they've covered both times.

Here's the deal, folks. SI's Sportsman of The Year and his bucking Broncos, not only aren't going to win the Super Bowl, they're not even going to go. Their defense is shaky, and Peyton Manning's January stumbles cannot be ignored. However, just focusing on the last month; the Broncos have lost 2 of their last 4 straight up, and are giving up 28.5 points/per during that stretch. Houston is (+400) on the money-line. I'd pound the Toxins with the points, and make a second (smaller) wager on them on the ML. 30-28, maybe the Toxins pull off the upset. 

Dallas at Washington (+3)
There are so many leaks coming out of Redskins Park as of late, that Depends has offered to build an adult diaper around the entire facility. There are so many leaks coming out of Redskins Park lately, that RG3's Thanksgiving Day Dinner partner Dan Snyder just signed Roto Rooter on to be the official plumber of the Washington Redskins. There are so many leaks coming out of Redskins Park lately, that in 2 weeks or 2 months or 6 months, 19 different reporters and 95% of the (expert) Redskins fans, will all turn to the guy next to them, and although talking about completely different things, will say, "See, I told you so..."

Tony Romo is coming off another brilliant Tony Romo in December performance. Blowing a 26-3 lead at halftime, and then pissing that game away at the end like Dallas did was so bad on so many levels, that Jerry Jones was caught by Fox's cameras with a frown on his face. Or at least I think that's what his face was doing. That loss made it two straight losses for Dallas, and 5 losses out of their last 6 against the number.

An independent poll of West Virginia residents who are Redskins fans, showed that they'd prefer Kirk Cousins over RG3 as the future Redskins quarterback. But then again, most people from West Virginia do prefer Cousins.....(bada-bing). The underdog in this series is 23-8 ATS in the last 31 played between these two teams who both suck. I'll take my chances on the sucky team who also happens to be at home catching a field goal. 30-23 Washington.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (+5.5)
The Jags have covered and won straight up three of their last four tilts. So won't you join me in a flashback to last week, when I explained to you how easy the Steelers (+3) Sunday night was. Big H.A.T. Nation was a 5-4 team (now 6-4) since their atrocious 0-4 start, and had just lost a tough game at home to Miami. They were then back at home catching points against a divisional foe. Such an easy like Sunday night football winner, and it was.

So here we are, in a similar situation. The Jags are a 3-1 team over the last month, catching a descent amount of points at home against a divisional foe whom they already beat earlier this season. (remember when I said one of my angles is playing against the divisional team who won the first game between the two? Well, I'm going against it again #YackLogic)

I mean, call me crazy, and yeah I know Vegas isn't stupid, so spare me the "how do you think they built all those beautiful hotel/casinos?" speech, but the TITans have lost 5 of their last 6, and this line makes absolutely zero point zero sense. The Jags have won three of the last four these two have played in Georgia south. I like the team at home, getting points, who also happens to be riding the surge train right now. 24-19 Jaguars. 

Oakland (+10) at San Diego
Speaking of divisional match ups, consider these numbers; the last 9 match ups between these two teams have gone Chargers 5 wins, Raiders 4 wins. And over that span, the games have been decided by an average of 8.2 points. I like the Raiders here, who until last week's reaming they took at the hands of the Chiefs, have been competitive. Sure, this is loser talk and probably a loser angle considering the barely over .500 horseshit season I'm having, but the Raiders prior five games read: lose by 10, lose by 7, lose by 4, win by 5, and lose by 4. And I might add, 4 of those 5 games were on the road (like this one), so its not as if they roll over and die when away from the friendly confines of that insane asylum they play at.

The Chargers have been a weird team this year. One minute they show hope and look like they're one of a handful of teams to contend for spots 5 and 6 in the AFC, and the next minute their coach is calling 2 of 3 pass plays from 1st and goal from the half yard line, Redskins fan. And I can't lay my money on that nonsense.

The Raiduzz are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 following an ATS loss. Conversely, the Bolts are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 following a straight up win. I like lots of points, and I like the silver and black to stick around. 33-27 Bolts. 

Last Week                                                                 3-2 ATS
Overall Year To Date                                      37-36-2 ATS (51%)
Reg. Season ATS Since '09                     184-142-12 ATS (56.4%)

Follow along as 'Yack' pursues excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on Twitter. *Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book*

Friday, December 13, 2013

NFL Week 15: It Took 14 Weeks, But I'm Finally At The Mendoza Line. Now What?

Jason Campbell's 2013 Passer Rating: 88.0
Robert Griffin The Third's: 82.2
Chicago at Cleveland (-1)
That popping sound you hear? The back field judge in the Browns/Patriots game last weekend, just now removing his dick from the Browns' collective ass. That pass interference call in the end zone, to set up the Patriots for a 1st and goal from the 1 and an improbable come back win was so bad, that Jeff Triplette just called for an internal affairs investigation.

Jay Cutler returns for the Bears after being on the shelf for 4 weeks. Jason Campbell will make his second start since returning from a concussion, induced from a shot to the head that was not called in the Browns/Steelers game. I'm not sure what games your officials are watching, Roger Goodell, but the officiating this year has been fucking abysmal. And the "bitchers" thought the replacement refs were bad....

Jason Campbell has played well in his role as the backup to the back up to Brian Hoyer. Whose on first, whose on second, you might ask? His 391 yard, 3 touchdown effort against the Patriots was all for naught because of the before mentioned ream job. But no fears, Browns fan. The Brownies get a defense this week,  that's even worse than the very much under the radar bad defense that's in New England, as da Bears come to town yielding almost 28 points/per, and (28th ranked) 382 yards/per. Not good. What is good, is a Cleveland defense that is ranked 7th overall, against a very average team from the Windy city. 24-20 Browns.

Philadelphia at Minnesota (+5)
I'm playing the Vikings here for a couple of reasons. (1) Minnesota has actually been pretty descent over the last month. I broke this down quite eloquently in last week's post, as I had them as an easy ATS winner and should've had them as a money-line winner as well. (why do they call this gambling?). And (2) I'm still not sold on the current division leaders of the NFC Least. Yes, they've won 5 games in a row, but I'm not ready to crown a team whose Napoleon Dynamite phenom QB is due to shit the bed, on the road, laying a lot of points, against a Vikings team whose covered 5 of their last 6.

Besides, throw out last week's Blizzard Bowl against Detroit, and who have the Uggles beaten that's worth a flip (Colin)? West Coast to East Coast Arizona? Ok, descent win at home, but that's mixed in around awful Washington, awful Oakland, and an Aaron Rodgers-Less Packers' team. I'm not impressed. The Vikings have covered 6 straight in December. 27-24, somebody wins.

"I wonder if I have time to take a shit at halftime."
Kansas City (-4.5) at Oakland
Rumor has it that Andy Reid's pre-game meal will consist of 95% saturated fats, 5% shit that's actually good for you. The only problem with that equation, is that prior to stuffing the food into his fat face, Reid will pick off the 5% good shit, and give it to kicker Ryan Succop.

Speaking of Reid, he has seen this movie before- a playoff run in December and a game he must win against an inferior division opponent. I'll take the fat boy with his game manager quarterback, and his defense who is still only yielding 17 points per contest. Not to mention, and call me crazy Bronco fan, but a chance to pull into a tie with Denver (and still contend for the division title???), who by the way, has to finish their 2013 campaign on the road. Yes, those are games the Broncos should win, but did anyone see their "10 point favorites" performance at home Thursday night? I guess the Chargers are a little better than the Titans, huh, Peyton?

Oakland has nothing, having lost 5 of their last 6. And don't sleep on the Chiefs' role as road warriors, covering 5 of their last 6 away from Arrowhead. 22-13 Chiefs.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (+3)
Unlike the previous divisional game I just broke down, I'm getting my chips in the middle with the home dog in this divisional tilt. Not just because Big Ben and Side Steppin' Mike have some pride on the national stage, but because (1) The Bungholes are 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS this year on the road vs divisional opponents, and (2) I'm a big fan of playing the divisional team who lost the last time the two teams played. (That's one of my secret angles.... Except of course in the KC/Oak game this week......)

The Steelers are a 5-4 team since their atrocious 0-4 start. So just focus on that for a minute. They're a "5-4 team"- at home, against a divisional opponent they lost to in week 2, and the Steelers are coming off a tough home loss. When presented that way, I'm taking the Steelers plus points seven days a week and twice on Sunday nights at 8:30 pm Eastern.

The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the AFC North. Give that girlfriend a congratulatory slap on her fat ass, and fire up a menthol, Steelers fan. Its Terrible Towel Time, bishes! Ruff-Ruff, 23-19 Steelers.

Baltimore at Detroit (-6)
If the Lions don't get their heads out of their collective asses, head coach Jim Schwartz will find himself pulling roadie duty for one of those awful heavy metal bands he listens to on his iPod. The PUSSY cats have now lost 3 of their last 4, and appear to be in typical Detroit Lion shit the bed mode. Not so fast, you cynical cocksucker, Yack. This game is going to be a Monday Night beat down.

Don't think I haven't been watching you, Raven fan. While most of the MSM and talking heads are pimping you as the "team nobody wants to play in round 1" or that "here comes the Ravens", I've watched you pull rabbits out of your ass and/or lose SU, for virtually the entire season. I'm not buying that horseshit for one minute. And this is a very, very bad match up for the Charm City Crowes.

Besides the fact that the Lions are on that 3 of last 4 slide (due factor), Detroit gets back home to the friendly confines of their climate controlled (and fast track) dome, and not that debacle I attempted to watch on TV last week in Philly. And I hate a lot of the match-ups for the Crowes here.

Baltimore cannot run the ball (29th), and conversely the Lions defense is 6th against the run. Maybe Joe Flacco will have to go back to those gimmicks he was bitching about a few weeks back, because Baltimore will get nothing on the ground this week. And as far as Matthew Stafford is concerned,  I like the helter skelter antics of that gunslinger. Yeah, he gets erratic at times, but he's commanding the 3rd best pass attack in the league against what is an average Baltimore pass D. Lastly, that line looks fishy "big", which I think will entice most of the uninformed betting public to get down on Bal'More. Bad bet, suckers. 45-17 Lions, in a track meet.

Last Week                                                      3-2 ATS
Overall Year To Date                           34-34-2 ATS (50%)
Reg. Season ATS Since '09          181-140-12 ATS (56.3%)

Follow along as 'Yack' pursues excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on Twitter. *Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book*

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Some Thoughts on RG3 Getting Benched

Your Starting Quarterback, Bravehearts Fan
By. Mike Baxter @Sportsyack

I said on twitter last night that regardless of what is done/not done over the final three weeks of the season, Redskins' fans (including myself, on occasion) would find a reason to bitch. Because like Mike Shanahan said at his Monday presser, "We're 3-10."

In any case, I'm not sure why the negative reaction to Shanahan's decision to bench Griffin over the last 3 weeks. Actually, I do know the reason. (See paragraph 1). But to those of you who are bitching about the benching, I'd like to know why? The coach you hate is coaching his last 3 games, and the decision guarantees that Griffin is 100% healthy and ready to go for 2014, when the next coach who comes in here and fails under Snyder's ownership, takes over.

Seriously, considering the last 96 hours of Days of Our Lives, Ashburn, can you think of a worse scenario for your Washington Redskins then the following?

Your hated coach, who you're sure is leaking information to some media members, is coaching his final 3 games for The Dan. And in a meaningless game against Atlanta or even worse, Dallas for instance, Griffin rolls out and gets Rob Gronkowskied by Morris Claiborne or Sean Lee.

How would that make you feel? Your 2013 shit show of a season just went from a small rash to full blown AIDS.

So relax, bitchers. Its the right decision. Besides the fact that myself (and others) don't even think Griffin has been 100% healthy all season. He certainly was not over the first month or so, and as Shanahan pointed out on Monday, Griffin has been crushed as of late, being sacked 24 times over the last 5 games. So is it really a big deal to sit the guy?

But if you want to play devil's advocate and say that sneaky Mike is sitting him based off of performance, then lets take a look at that and see if sneaky, lying Mike has a point. Here is Robert's last 4 games:

17/35, 264 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 81.1 passer rating

16/26, 118 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 56.3 passer rating

24/32, 207 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 102.0 passer rating

12/26, 164 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 63.6 passer rating

That's 4 games, 4 losses, and other than the NYG game, games the Redskins were never in. And your Quarterback completed just 58% of his passes (which based on season totals vs the rest of the league, ranks 32nd out of 32 teams), averaged just 188 yards passing, during a time, by the way, when Kyle had Alf less involved, and had a 4 game passer rating of 77.2 (which based on season totals vs the rest of the league, ranks 30th out of 32 teams).  That, Redskins fans, is brutally awful. But I'm not here to bash Griffin.

One last thing I'd point out, which will not be the word of a Jason Reid or Sally Jenkins or Dan Graziano or anyone else for that matter, since many of the bitchers suspect nothing but lies out of Redskins Park, is that actions will speak louder than words on Sunday.

And if (1) The Redskins do beat Atlanta, and (2) The Redskins beat Atlanta and Kirk Cousins looks good in doing so, and (3) The Redskins beat Atlanta, and the effort by the other 52 players on the roster is overwhelmingly better than what we've seen over the last month, then Mike Shanahan will be validated, and it will be officially "worse case scenario" for Snyder and his franchise QB. Except for the fact, of course, that the following week against Dallas, Fed Ex Field will have more people in the stands than an average Washington Mystics game, and that $hould make the owner happy.

Sunday, December 8, 2013

NFL Week 14: Wanna Whole Lotta Winners?

The Steelers' 12th Man Won't Be Needed Against Miami
Miami at Pittsburgh (-3)
Really? My choices are Ryan Tannehill or Ben Roethleisberger? Regis Philbin's brother or my main man Mike "Side Step" Tomlin? Puhh-leeeze. I'll take the latter of the two in both, at home (and in weather), riding a 4 game ATS heater. Plus, its Big Hair, Big Ass, Big Truck Nation, what's not to love?

I like the extra days rest for the Steelers (played Turkey night), and I do not like the Flippers on the back end of consecutive roadies. And for Flipper fan, this is no New York Jets squad. This is a Steelers team, as mentioned, on a bit of a heater. They were a two point conversion away from (possibly) winning their 4th straight in Baltimore 10 days ago. In fact, ever since the ass raping that New England gave them 5 weeks ago in Foxboro, Pittsburgh has yielded just 17 points per game, and Big Ben's TD/INT ratio is an impressive 9 to 1.

The Flippers are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 roadies, and they're 0-4-1 ATS last 5 on road vs a team with a losing record. And Sunday won't feel like South Beach either, Flipper Fan. Game time forecast is for 30 degrees with a wintry mix of snow and sleet. That should be fun. 26-17 Steelers.

Indy at Cincinnati (-6)
I've forced myself to overlook the fact that I am a perennial hater of Marvin Lewis and the Cincinnati Bengals, and I'm not only betting on them and laying points here, but I'm betting against Andrew Luck and the Colts, who I love getting underdog value with. But I just can't overlook The Nati's resume, and what I think is a Colts team regressing right now.

I'm giving The Nati a lot of credit for what I think was a tough road win just last week at San Diego, against what was a surging Bolts team. That was a game where a bad "good" team would've just laid down. But I think there is hope, Bunghole fan. Because not only was that win impressive, but so were wins this year against (healthy Aaron Rodgers) Green Bay, Detroit, and New England.

The Bungholes still have a chance to finish strong, and possibly get a 1st round bye if they can beat out (what looks like is going to be) New England. And if that happens, that's going to be a tough draw for whomever has to go to The Nati in the second round. The Holes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home tilts. Conversely, Colts fan, your horseshoes aren't so lucky on the road as of late, losing 4 of their last 5 ATS vs teams with winning records. 30-20 Bungholes.

Minnesota (+7) at Baltimore
In yet another East Coast game that will be affected by weather on Sunday (33 degrees, 90% chance of snow, 1-2" expected), I will take the team catching a bunch of points who can also run the ball (AP #1 ranked in entire NFL), against a team who cannot (Baltimore, 29th ranked rushing attack). 

Over the last month, I think both of these teams are about equal. The Ravens have won 3 of 4, and the Vikings went 2-1-1 over that same span. Minnesota has had a Quarterback carousel due to injury, but I don't think that it really matters. Choosing between Christian Ponder or Matt Cassel as your quarterback, is like choosing between peas or Lima beans as your vegetable; both are just Ok, and neither would be anyone's first choice, but the Vikings offense has been effective as of late.

Minnesota have scored 20 points or more in 6 straight games (26 points/per contest over that span), and they've racked up 943 yards of total offense, just in their last two games. Baltimore is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in December. Conversely, the Vikings have covered 5 straight played in month number 12. This will be a sloppy, ugly, turnover filled game, that Minnesota wins. Take the points, and play the money line too. Ruff-Ruff, 26-24 Vikings.

Seattle at San Francisco (-3)
The Suckhawks certainly looked like world beaters last Monday night, making a very good Saints' team look like a JV squad. But I'm selling Seattle this week, against a 49ers team who is playing just as good as anyone right now.

Frisco's last 4 weeks reads as follows: tough low scoring home loss to 9-3 Carolina, brutal road loss against 9-3 New Orleans, in a game in which I feel that Roger Goodell's Two Hand Touch rules totally fucked Frisco out of a hard fought road win, and then the last two weeks of dressing down bad teams in Washington and St. Louis. Now they get Seattle coming off a short week, and riding a media high, essentially being told by every talking head that they're the ones to beat in the NFC. Its a bad spot, Seattle fan.

Also, the Suckhawks are not the same team outside of that airport hanger that they play in at home. I hate the could've, would've, should've game like the next guy, but for the sake of prognosticating, one must sometimes take their head out of the sand, and acknowledge it. They have one road loss (at Indy), but were given two (late in the game) gifts on the road (at Carolina and at Houston), and then played a very sloppy, uninspired game against a bad St. Louis team on MNF, basically escaping in a game that came down to the last play.

These two teams, other than in 2011 when the 49ers had the brooms out, have split their season series 4 of the last 5 seasons (Seattle won the first game between these two in Week 2). Also, the favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Don't be surprised if Frisco lays the f**king wood here. 31-12, Frisco. 

Just 4 More Weeks Until Golf Season
Starts, Cowboy Fan
Dallas at Chicago (-1)
Don't expect a defensive struggle here, as this Monday night tilt pits two of the worst defenses in football against each other. I'm not sure it will be as bad as that shit show we saw Saturday night between Auburn and Missouri, but it might be close. I'll put it to you this way; whatever Cowboys and Bears players you have on your stupid fantasy squad, make sure those sorry bastards are starting.

Dallas enters the game with the worst defense in the NFL, relative to yards yielded per game. Chicago, in that department, is 28th. And although the Cowboys are battling it out with Philly for the divisional lead in the NFC Least, they nor Chicago comes in very hot. Da Bears enter this contest on a 4 game ATS slide, while Dallas has lost 3 of their last 4 against the number, and were sort of lucky to beat Oakland at home on Thanksgiving.

I'm taking Josh McCown over Tony Romo here. I'm giving McCown the home field advantage, his numbers over the last 3 weeks are actually not bad (103.4 passer rating), and in case you haven't checked your calendars, Cowboy fan, its officially December. (Romo 11-15 as a starter in the month of December)

I like McCown, along with Matt Forte and the smoking hot Alshon Jeffery, to put up big numbers in this spot against a Dallas squad whose given up 29.8 points per contest over their last 5 games. Also, and quite surprising if you ask me, America's Team is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 prime time tilts on Monday night. 31-27 Chicago. 

Last Week                                                            3-2 ATS
Overall Year To Date                                  31-32-2 ATS (49%)
Reg. Season ATS Since '09                  178-138-12 ATS (57%)

Follow along as 'Yack' pursues excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on Twitter. *Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book* 

Sunday, December 1, 2013

NFL Week 13: December Clouds Are Now Covering Me (Still Sub .500...But Barely) #Sunlight

These Hillbill-errr, I mean, Panther Fans Have Plenty
 of Reasons to Cheer This Year
Tampa at Carolina (-8)
I've been off and on the Panther Train this year, and on the heels of 7 straight wins and 6 of 7 covers, yours truly is hopping back on board. I've loved this team all year. The Panthers' defense is stellar and good enough with the job Mr. Newton is doing on the other side of the ball, to get them to the Super Bowl this year. Carolina's D is giving up the fewest points per contest (13.7) in the entire league, and the 3rd fewest yards allowed per game. 

Tampa is on a mini-heater of their own, winning 3 straight and covering 4 in a row. Mike Glennon, quite frankly, has been en fuego. I'm not sure how anyone can overlook his numbers over the last month. With the exception of the Miami game, which Tampa did end up winning, his stat line is beyond sick. Against Seattle, Atlanta, and Detroit- collectively, he threw for 6 TDs, just 1 pick, completed 76% of his passes (51-67), and had a QB rating average of 133.0. Uhhhh....what??

For Tampa, in this spot, I think the jig is up. They're due to lose (hey, they started 0-8. They know how to do that.), they're on the back end of consecutive roadies, and they're playing a team whose defense is a far cry from an Atlanta team (27th) or last week's Detroit (22nd) opponent. Also, Fuc fan, the Panthers don't turn the ball over. Unlike your almost win at Seattle (Seahawks turned ball over 3 times, twice in the Red Zone) and last week's road upset vs Detroit (the Lions turned the ball over 5 times), Carolina has turned the ball over the 3rd fewest times (14) in the entire league.

Don't look now, Who Dat Nation, but after you get beat Monday night in Seattle, next week's tilt against these Carolina Panthers will be for sole possession of first place. 29-16 Panthers.

Hopefully for Mike Smith, Home Depot is Hiring
Atlanta at Buffalo (-3)
This might be my favorite game on the card this week. You have one team in Atlanta, who has been a total disappointment this year following last year's 13-3 regular season campaign, who is absolutely dreadful on the road (0-5 SU and ATS), versus a team who is very good at home (5-1 ATS- although this game is in Toronto), who in their last game absolutely dismantled division foe NYJ, AND who is also coming off their bye week.

Atlanta really is just dreadful. Their defense is ranked 27th in yards allowed, and 28th in points allowed per game. Offensively, they're next to DFL in rushing yards per game. Hence their 2-9 record. Buffalo, though just 4-7, has been competitive in virtually every game this year. They beat before mentioned Carolina, a descent Miami team on the road, and should've and could've beat 7-4 Cincinnati and 8-3 New England.

Don't be surprised if the 2013 Fantasy Football bust of the year, CJ Spiller, busts out against a run D that is total horseshit. Part of the reason the ATL's defense is so bad, is because they can't stop the run. Check this out:

*Atlanta has allowed 100 rushing yards or more in 8 straight, 130 rushing yards or more in 5 of those 8 games, and in 2 of those 8 games, teams (Seattle, Arizona) ran for over 200 yards.
*During this stretch, two nobodies (by NFL standards), Bobby Rainey and Andre Ellington, ran for 163 and 154 yards respectively, against the Fuccans. #Garbage

Just like when Dean Wormer told Flounder that "fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son..", a shitty run offense and a shitty run defense, is no way to win football games in the NFL, Mike Smith.  This may never even be a game. 34-22, Bills.

Denver (-4.5) at Kansas City
Its beginning to look like the Chefs are possibly just a descent to average team, who had the benefit of a soft schedule early on. Back to back losses, including last week's very bad home loss against Phillip Rivers and the Bolts (sounds like a cool name for a band), and Chef fan is looking like they're going to be limping into the Wild Card round. In fact, don't be surprised if the team that started 9-0 finishes at 9-7. They play 3 of their final 4 on the road- all games they could end up losing, and their lone home game left is against the Colts.

Denver on the other hand, is still reeling from whatever happened to them on Sunday. Personally, I have no fucking idea what happened to them on Sunday night, as I was at the Pink concert with my wife and 18,000 other girls, but I hear they pissed away a 24-0 halftime lead, and that a recently concussed Wes Welker forgot how to fair catch a punt. But whatever.

Denver is much the best, people. And unlike Sunday night, weather won't be a factor in this game. Game time forecast is sunny, mid forties, no wind, no rain, no snow. Mr. Manning will redeem Bronco fan for Sunday's collapse, having his way with a defense who lost two starters in last weeks loss to the Bolts (The Chefs were up 14-3 in the 2nd Quarter when KC's Tamba Hali and Justin Houston went down. The Bolts rattled off 38 points there after). Denver is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a SU loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 in December, and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC West. "Peyton Time" in a easy Denver win. 38-17 Broncos

Cincinnati at San Diego (Pk)
Jabby Burns will be half deep into a bottle of Tito's by kickoff, and the drinks will just keep coming in the celebratory fashion, as Phillip Rivers keeps the Bolts moving forward to that 6th and final playoff spot. I'm not a big fan of the Bungholes. I think they're good, but not great. And on the road, they're nothing to write home about. In fact, on the road, the Bungholes are garbage. Unless of course you don't think that 2-4 SU and 0-4-2 ATS is garbage, and if that's the case, pick your own adjective.

That Phil Rivers guy I mentioned is completing almost 71% of his passes, which ranks numero uno by a lot, relative to the rest of the NFL gunslingers. He also happens to be Top 5 in TDs thrown and Top 5 in season QB rating. The Bolts are coming off a brutal 4 of 5 on the road stretch, and will welcome the home confines of 72 and sunny. And I like Rivers in this spot with his team surging.

San Diego is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record.  Ride the Lightning, Metallica fan. 24-21 Bolts.

Last Week                                                                2-2-1 ATS
Turkey Day                                                                1-0 ATS
Overall Year To Date                                        29-30-2 ATS (49%)
Reg. Season ATS Since '09                      176-136-12 ATS (56.4%)

Follow along as 'Yack' pursues excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on Twitter. *Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book* 

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