Sunday, December 1, 2013

NFL Week 13: December Clouds Are Now Covering Me (Still Sub .500...But Barely) #Sunlight

These Hillbill-errr, I mean, Panther Fans Have Plenty
 of Reasons to Cheer This Year
Tampa at Carolina (-8)
I've been off and on the Panther Train this year, and on the heels of 7 straight wins and 6 of 7 covers, yours truly is hopping back on board. I've loved this team all year. The Panthers' defense is stellar and good enough with the job Mr. Newton is doing on the other side of the ball, to get them to the Super Bowl this year. Carolina's D is giving up the fewest points per contest (13.7) in the entire league, and the 3rd fewest yards allowed per game. 

Tampa is on a mini-heater of their own, winning 3 straight and covering 4 in a row. Mike Glennon, quite frankly, has been en fuego. I'm not sure how anyone can overlook his numbers over the last month. With the exception of the Miami game, which Tampa did end up winning, his stat line is beyond sick. Against Seattle, Atlanta, and Detroit- collectively, he threw for 6 TDs, just 1 pick, completed 76% of his passes (51-67), and had a QB rating average of 133.0. Uhhhh....what??

For Tampa, in this spot, I think the jig is up. They're due to lose (hey, they started 0-8. They know how to do that.), they're on the back end of consecutive roadies, and they're playing a team whose defense is a far cry from an Atlanta team (27th) or last week's Detroit (22nd) opponent. Also, Fuc fan, the Panthers don't turn the ball over. Unlike your almost win at Seattle (Seahawks turned ball over 3 times, twice in the Red Zone) and last week's road upset vs Detroit (the Lions turned the ball over 5 times), Carolina has turned the ball over the 3rd fewest times (14) in the entire league.

Don't look now, Who Dat Nation, but after you get beat Monday night in Seattle, next week's tilt against these Carolina Panthers will be for sole possession of first place. 29-16 Panthers.

Hopefully for Mike Smith, Home Depot is Hiring
Atlanta at Buffalo (-3)
This might be my favorite game on the card this week. You have one team in Atlanta, who has been a total disappointment this year following last year's 13-3 regular season campaign, who is absolutely dreadful on the road (0-5 SU and ATS), versus a team who is very good at home (5-1 ATS- although this game is in Toronto), who in their last game absolutely dismantled division foe NYJ, AND who is also coming off their bye week.

Atlanta really is just dreadful. Their defense is ranked 27th in yards allowed, and 28th in points allowed per game. Offensively, they're next to DFL in rushing yards per game. Hence their 2-9 record. Buffalo, though just 4-7, has been competitive in virtually every game this year. They beat before mentioned Carolina, a descent Miami team on the road, and should've and could've beat 7-4 Cincinnati and 8-3 New England.

Don't be surprised if the 2013 Fantasy Football bust of the year, CJ Spiller, busts out against a run D that is total horseshit. Part of the reason the ATL's defense is so bad, is because they can't stop the run. Check this out:

*Atlanta has allowed 100 rushing yards or more in 8 straight, 130 rushing yards or more in 5 of those 8 games, and in 2 of those 8 games, teams (Seattle, Arizona) ran for over 200 yards.
*During this stretch, two nobodies (by NFL standards), Bobby Rainey and Andre Ellington, ran for 163 and 154 yards respectively, against the Fuccans. #Garbage

Just like when Dean Wormer told Flounder that "fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son..", a shitty run offense and a shitty run defense, is no way to win football games in the NFL, Mike Smith.  This may never even be a game. 34-22, Bills.

Denver (-4.5) at Kansas City
Its beginning to look like the Chefs are possibly just a descent to average team, who had the benefit of a soft schedule early on. Back to back losses, including last week's very bad home loss against Phillip Rivers and the Bolts (sounds like a cool name for a band), and Chef fan is looking like they're going to be limping into the Wild Card round. In fact, don't be surprised if the team that started 9-0 finishes at 9-7. They play 3 of their final 4 on the road- all games they could end up losing, and their lone home game left is against the Colts.

Denver on the other hand, is still reeling from whatever happened to them on Sunday. Personally, I have no fucking idea what happened to them on Sunday night, as I was at the Pink concert with my wife and 18,000 other girls, but I hear they pissed away a 24-0 halftime lead, and that a recently concussed Wes Welker forgot how to fair catch a punt. But whatever.

Denver is much the best, people. And unlike Sunday night, weather won't be a factor in this game. Game time forecast is sunny, mid forties, no wind, no rain, no snow. Mr. Manning will redeem Bronco fan for Sunday's collapse, having his way with a defense who lost two starters in last weeks loss to the Bolts (The Chefs were up 14-3 in the 2nd Quarter when KC's Tamba Hali and Justin Houston went down. The Bolts rattled off 38 points there after). Denver is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a SU loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 in December, and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC West. "Peyton Time" in a easy Denver win. 38-17 Broncos

Cincinnati at San Diego (Pk)
Jabby Burns will be half deep into a bottle of Tito's by kickoff, and the drinks will just keep coming in the celebratory fashion, as Phillip Rivers keeps the Bolts moving forward to that 6th and final playoff spot. I'm not a big fan of the Bungholes. I think they're good, but not great. And on the road, they're nothing to write home about. In fact, on the road, the Bungholes are garbage. Unless of course you don't think that 2-4 SU and 0-4-2 ATS is garbage, and if that's the case, pick your own adjective.

That Phil Rivers guy I mentioned is completing almost 71% of his passes, which ranks numero uno by a lot, relative to the rest of the NFL gunslingers. He also happens to be Top 5 in TDs thrown and Top 5 in season QB rating. The Bolts are coming off a brutal 4 of 5 on the road stretch, and will welcome the home confines of 72 and sunny. And I like Rivers in this spot with his team surging.

San Diego is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record.  Ride the Lightning, Metallica fan. 24-21 Bolts.

Last Week                                                                2-2-1 ATS
Turkey Day                                                                1-0 ATS
Overall Year To Date                                        29-30-2 ATS (49%)
Reg. Season ATS Since '09                      176-136-12 ATS (56.4%)

Follow along as 'Yack' pursues excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on Twitter. *Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book* 

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