Sunday, December 8, 2013

NFL Week 14: Wanna Whole Lotta Winners?

The Steelers' 12th Man Won't Be Needed Against Miami
Miami at Pittsburgh (-3)
Really? My choices are Ryan Tannehill or Ben Roethleisberger? Regis Philbin's brother or my main man Mike "Side Step" Tomlin? Puhh-leeeze. I'll take the latter of the two in both, at home (and in weather), riding a 4 game ATS heater. Plus, its Big Hair, Big Ass, Big Truck Nation, what's not to love?

I like the extra days rest for the Steelers (played Turkey night), and I do not like the Flippers on the back end of consecutive roadies. And for Flipper fan, this is no New York Jets squad. This is a Steelers team, as mentioned, on a bit of a heater. They were a two point conversion away from (possibly) winning their 4th straight in Baltimore 10 days ago. In fact, ever since the ass raping that New England gave them 5 weeks ago in Foxboro, Pittsburgh has yielded just 17 points per game, and Big Ben's TD/INT ratio is an impressive 9 to 1.

The Flippers are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 roadies, and they're 0-4-1 ATS last 5 on road vs a team with a losing record. And Sunday won't feel like South Beach either, Flipper Fan. Game time forecast is for 30 degrees with a wintry mix of snow and sleet. That should be fun. 26-17 Steelers.

Indy at Cincinnati (-6)
I've forced myself to overlook the fact that I am a perennial hater of Marvin Lewis and the Cincinnati Bengals, and I'm not only betting on them and laying points here, but I'm betting against Andrew Luck and the Colts, who I love getting underdog value with. But I just can't overlook The Nati's resume, and what I think is a Colts team regressing right now.

I'm giving The Nati a lot of credit for what I think was a tough road win just last week at San Diego, against what was a surging Bolts team. That was a game where a bad "good" team would've just laid down. But I think there is hope, Bunghole fan. Because not only was that win impressive, but so were wins this year against (healthy Aaron Rodgers) Green Bay, Detroit, and New England.

The Bungholes still have a chance to finish strong, and possibly get a 1st round bye if they can beat out (what looks like is going to be) New England. And if that happens, that's going to be a tough draw for whomever has to go to The Nati in the second round. The Holes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home tilts. Conversely, Colts fan, your horseshoes aren't so lucky on the road as of late, losing 4 of their last 5 ATS vs teams with winning records. 30-20 Bungholes.

Minnesota (+7) at Baltimore
In yet another East Coast game that will be affected by weather on Sunday (33 degrees, 90% chance of snow, 1-2" expected), I will take the team catching a bunch of points who can also run the ball (AP #1 ranked in entire NFL), against a team who cannot (Baltimore, 29th ranked rushing attack). 

Over the last month, I think both of these teams are about equal. The Ravens have won 3 of 4, and the Vikings went 2-1-1 over that same span. Minnesota has had a Quarterback carousel due to injury, but I don't think that it really matters. Choosing between Christian Ponder or Matt Cassel as your quarterback, is like choosing between peas or Lima beans as your vegetable; both are just Ok, and neither would be anyone's first choice, but the Vikings offense has been effective as of late.

Minnesota have scored 20 points or more in 6 straight games (26 points/per contest over that span), and they've racked up 943 yards of total offense, just in their last two games. Baltimore is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in December. Conversely, the Vikings have covered 5 straight played in month number 12. This will be a sloppy, ugly, turnover filled game, that Minnesota wins. Take the points, and play the money line too. Ruff-Ruff, 26-24 Vikings.

Seattle at San Francisco (-3)
The Suckhawks certainly looked like world beaters last Monday night, making a very good Saints' team look like a JV squad. But I'm selling Seattle this week, against a 49ers team who is playing just as good as anyone right now.

Frisco's last 4 weeks reads as follows: tough low scoring home loss to 9-3 Carolina, brutal road loss against 9-3 New Orleans, in a game in which I feel that Roger Goodell's Two Hand Touch rules totally fucked Frisco out of a hard fought road win, and then the last two weeks of dressing down bad teams in Washington and St. Louis. Now they get Seattle coming off a short week, and riding a media high, essentially being told by every talking head that they're the ones to beat in the NFC. Its a bad spot, Seattle fan.

Also, the Suckhawks are not the same team outside of that airport hanger that they play in at home. I hate the could've, would've, should've game like the next guy, but for the sake of prognosticating, one must sometimes take their head out of the sand, and acknowledge it. They have one road loss (at Indy), but were given two (late in the game) gifts on the road (at Carolina and at Houston), and then played a very sloppy, uninspired game against a bad St. Louis team on MNF, basically escaping in a game that came down to the last play.

These two teams, other than in 2011 when the 49ers had the brooms out, have split their season series 4 of the last 5 seasons (Seattle won the first game between these two in Week 2). Also, the favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Don't be surprised if Frisco lays the f**king wood here. 31-12, Frisco. 

Just 4 More Weeks Until Golf Season
Starts, Cowboy Fan
Dallas at Chicago (-1)
Don't expect a defensive struggle here, as this Monday night tilt pits two of the worst defenses in football against each other. I'm not sure it will be as bad as that shit show we saw Saturday night between Auburn and Missouri, but it might be close. I'll put it to you this way; whatever Cowboys and Bears players you have on your stupid fantasy squad, make sure those sorry bastards are starting.

Dallas enters the game with the worst defense in the NFL, relative to yards yielded per game. Chicago, in that department, is 28th. And although the Cowboys are battling it out with Philly for the divisional lead in the NFC Least, they nor Chicago comes in very hot. Da Bears enter this contest on a 4 game ATS slide, while Dallas has lost 3 of their last 4 against the number, and were sort of lucky to beat Oakland at home on Thanksgiving.

I'm taking Josh McCown over Tony Romo here. I'm giving McCown the home field advantage, his numbers over the last 3 weeks are actually not bad (103.4 passer rating), and in case you haven't checked your calendars, Cowboy fan, its officially December. (Romo 11-15 as a starter in the month of December)

I like McCown, along with Matt Forte and the smoking hot Alshon Jeffery, to put up big numbers in this spot against a Dallas squad whose given up 29.8 points per contest over their last 5 games. Also, and quite surprising if you ask me, America's Team is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 prime time tilts on Monday night. 31-27 Chicago. 

Last Week                                                            3-2 ATS
Overall Year To Date                                  31-32-2 ATS (49%)
Reg. Season ATS Since '09                  178-138-12 ATS (57%)

Follow along as 'Yack' pursues excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on Twitter. *Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book* 

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