Sunday, September 14, 2014

NFL Week 2: Its Early. Have Some #Faith in The Yack

Side Effects of 1-4 ATS: alcohol, drugs, cigarettes, and shame.
Coming off a sub .500 season (first in 5 years of documenting ATS), I did not want to start the 2014 campaign the way I did last week. A 1-4 ATS diarrhea all over myself  debut, is the last thing this diaper-less wearing, part time handicapper needed. That and the email ridiculing that ensued from my partner and bet runner, "The Legend".  (Side note: between you and me, Fuck The Legend) Couple that with our Thursday night misstep on the Steelers (+2.5), and we have some digging out to do, 10 days into the season.

But there is no time for crying and dwelling in our miserable start to the 2014 campaign. And quite frankly, Legend- if you're reading this- there is no time and place for obscene language directed at buddies. I apologize, and the first drink is on me Oct. 4th. Actually, we'll be at your crib watching MLB playoffs, so the first drink will actually be on you. So make sure The Goose is stocked to capacity. In any case, I've picked myself up from the canvas, and accepted responsibility for my role in the matter, and I've capped 4 new "winners" for you to read about this week. 

Jacksonville at Washington (-6)
Multiple Red Zone turnovers and failing to protect your kicker and punter during basic NFL plays, are all sure fire ways to lose NFL games. And regardless of how many coaches come trotting through Daniel Snyder's office door with dollar signs in their eyes, somethings will never change in Ashburn. Including the team name.

Speaking of faith, my faith was somewhat restored in RG3, as I think he performed and did what he was asked to do last week at a descent level. I might've been looking thru my burgundy and gold colored glasses, but I'm still not sure how the Redskins lost that game. Oh yeah, nevermind, I just re-read the very first sentence of this post.

The Jags were gift wrapped a 17 point lead courtesy of 3 Eagles turnovers last week. The Jags then opted to do their best Roger Goodell impression, and fall asleep while on the job. 34 unanswered points later, and it was business as usual for the 11 point favorite Eagles.

The Jags are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in September. RG3 has only tweeted 7 times since last Sunday's loss, including a picture of him stopping to say hello to some kids at a bus stop on his way home from practice. I know its not video of him Mike Tyson-ing his wife or beating the shit out of one of  his kids, but Roger Goodell said it will have to do for now. Good guys sometimes do finish first. 27-10 Redskins.

Dallas at Tennessee (-3.5)
Looks Like Romo Threw Another Pick
The Cowboys are coached by a guy who has zero job security after this season, and probably should've been fired last year. They're owned by an ego maniac, 70 something year old dipshit, who thinks he knows more about football than Jimmy Johnson does, whose also now involved in some kind of sex scandal with a stripper. They're quarterbacked by a guy who has long since cashed his $55 million check, whose coming off back surgery, whose coming off a 3 interception, 3 sack "performance" in his home debut.

Not to be pessimistic Cowboys fan, but there is a better chance of "Mrs. Doubtfire 2" hitting the big screen, than there is of your team winning more than 4 games this season.

This game could get ugly. While the Cowboys and Romo had absolutely nothing to counter San Francisco last week, the Titans rolled into Kansas City and beat down the Chiefs.  Newly extended Alex Smith did one better than the before mentioned Romo. He threw 3 picks, but he was sacked 4 times. Jamaal Charles was held to just 19 yards on 7 carries. And the Chiefs only TD came in garbage time late in the 4th quarter.

Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games dating back to last season. This is a bad spot against an upstart, younger Titans team, whose adopted Ken Whisenhunt's smash mouth attitude. Poleaxeing alert, poleaxeing alert! 30-14 Titans. 

New Orleans at Cleveland (+6.5)
In my first of two games where I hopped on a home team catching at least a TD, I'm simply betting with some disturbing trends against New Orleans, and laying some faith in a player I've liked a lot the last couple years, Brian Hoyer.

For starters, the Saints haven't exactly been world beaters on grass, and neither has Drew Brees. The Saints were 1-2 ATS last year, and Drew Brees threw just 4 TDs, in the 3 games they played on the natural surface. Another mind boggler, is the fact that in the 38 road games in which Sean Payton has coached the Saints, the road team has covered the number just 5 times.

The Browns "won" the second half of their game last week in Pittsburgh, 24-3. They can move the ball and they can score. That might not bode well for a Saints defense that yielded almost 600 yards of total offense in Atlanta last week. New Orleans is a stock I'm selling. The Brownies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 as a home dog. "Who dat at 0-2?" 30-27 Browns.

Seattle at San Diego (+6)
Its been 10 days since the Seahawks took it to Aaron Rodgers and the Pack. And its been 9 days and 23 hours since the onslaught of non-stop Seattle love has poured through my radio and TV speakers. I know you have 4 hours to kill, "guy with a radio show, who broke into the business writing what are actually boring sports column, but now you and your PD think you're a radio sports shock jock", but for Christs sake, its one fucking game!

I mean, whats not to like about Seattle? 11-2 ATS last 13.  And their last two "real" games involved absolute beat downs of future HOFers Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. That's impressive.

But so is a San Diego Chargers team who has gone toe to toe with some real heavy weights lately. The Bolts are 6-1 ATS in their last 7, which includes ATS wins against tough Zona in Zona, and two ATS covers vs Denver, including a SU win in Denver in Week 14. Don't sleep on Seattle's less than stellar road record. They're 32-45-1 ATS on the road since 2005, and were 4-4 ATS last year. 23-20 Chargers.

Last Week (Including Thurs. Pit/Bal)                     1-5 ATS
YTD                                                                          1-5 ATS
Regular Season ATS Since '09                 189-153-12 ATS (55%)                                            

Follow along as we pursue excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest.
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