Friday, September 19, 2014

NFL Week 3: "Who Let The Dogs Out?... Ruff....Ruff-Ruff-Ruff-Ruff!"

Tom Coughlin At The End of Last Week's Loss
Houston at NY Giants (+2)
Tom Coughlin is running pretty hot these days. That red faced bastard has watched his team turn the ball over 6 times through two weeks, while forcing zero. His quarterback named Manning, although donning two Super Bowl rings, is playing more like Bradley (or is it Chelsea?) than Eli (cue a Google search by 79% of my readers). That goofy looking bastard has a 69.2 passer rating (32nd ranked) through two pretty ugly games, and the Giants look as lost as Adrian Peterson in the condom aisle at a CVS.

Fast forward to this Sunday, where the Giants host a team who is ripe for an absolute beat down. Here is the deal with the 2-0 Texans; they're not very good. They were fortunate to win their Week 1 game vs Washington, in a game they were pretty much out played in, albeit for a couple Redskins RZ turnovers, and a Houston special teams touchdown. The Texans then drew the Raiders in Week 2, who might be the worst team in the NFL. And like the gift wrapped W the Texans got in Week 1, the Raiders too turned the ball over in Texans territory; four times.

The G-Men are 16-6-1 in their last 23 as a dog of 1-3 points. And they're "riding" an 8 game losing streak in the month of September, that I'm banking on them breaking this weekend. Couple this information with (a) Houston on the back end of back to back roadies, and (b) The Giants in desperation mode in Week 3, and you've got my #BarkingDog 5 Star lock for the month of September.  Coughlin's face will be a lighter shade of red by about 3:45 Sunday afternoon. 23-17 Giants.

Dallas at St. Louis (+1.5)
Per a source a couple years ago, Austin Davis was on the Shanahans board along with Kirk Cousins, the year the Redskins took Cousins 4th in the 2012 draft. The Redskins eventually took Cousins, the Shanahans moved on, Griffin got hurt for the 983rd time last week, and now Cousins is starting in DC. I guess its a good thing the Shannys opted for Cousins, considering Davis wasn't even drafted that year, and a pick at 4th wouldn't have been too wise. However, Davis wound up in St. Louis, and due to Sam Bradford's 1,172nd injury, Davis is now starting in St. Louis.

If you're wondering who this Austin Davis dude is, check his college career numbers. They're not too shabby, and they include a lot of records held at Southern Miss, that were once held by one, Brett Favre. In any case, he's playing at the pro level now and the Dallas Cowboys are in town. I don't know what to make of the Cowboys. They cost me a W last weekend in Tennessee, but I'm still not buying their defense, Tony Romo's back is jacked again, and I'm playing against them on their back end of back to back roadies (sound familiar, Texans fan?).

I'm throwing out the Rams week 1 pollaxeing at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings. Following Bradford's pre-season injury, they trotted out Shaun Hill at QB, who lasted all of a half before being injured. They then brought in un-tested Davis in relief for the second half. But then last week, Davis and the Rams grinded out a tough road win at Tampa.

Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after they've allowed 14 points or less. They're 8-18 in their last 26 following a SU win. And I still believe they're a 5 or 6 win team at most, who will not be starting off their season 2-1. Rams, 26-20.

Baltimore at Cleveland (+1.5)
The Browns are Top 5 in the league through two weeks in points scored per. The Ravens, IMO, have been very unimpressive through two home games. 16 points in a week 1 loss to the Bengals, and then they had the benefit of catching the Steelers in the dreaded (short week, plus travel) Thursday night game, which was an ugly, penalty filled, two hand touch abortion of a football game.

Conversely, I like what I've seen from Cleveland through two weeks. After sleeping through the first half of their Week 1 tilt in Pittsburgh, the Browns have since gone 24-3 vs Pittsburgh in the second half of that game, and then last week- although winning it in the end with a field goal, they seemed to never lose control of a game they essentially dominated. Also, when was the last time Drew Brees was held to just 237 yards passing? (I don't have the answer, but I know it doesn't happen very often)

I've been preaching the Browns under the radar defense for over a year now. And the Ravens are not the type of West Coast type offense that will go into the Dawg Pound and put up monster numbers. Last year in Cleveland, the Jason Campbell led Browns beat the Ravens 24-18, while holding Joe Flacco to just 250 yards passing, and the Ravens rushers to just 55 yards. In the game these two played in Baltimore last year, in which the Ravens won 14-6, Flacco had just 211 yards passing. Keep the faith in the D, and keep the faith in Brian Hoyer. The Browns are on a 4-0 ATS heater in the month of September, and have covered 4 of their last 5 at home as a dog of 1-3 points. 27-13 Browns.

Kansas City (+4.5) at Miami
A Young Andy Reid in a Pie Eating Contest (1971)
Andy Reid claims that the only thing he can think of when playing in the city of Miami, are the two 'M's in the word 'Miami'. It reminds him of 'M&M's, which is his favorite candy. He also went on to say that, "and Miami has great pasta, pizza, seafood- one of my favorite Dunkin Donuts is on A1A, I LOVE the stadium hot dogs there, the pretzels that they twist into the shape of a dolphin, the escargot at...."

The Chefs have lost 5 straight regular or playoff games, dating back to last December. They also backed up the Brinks truck for Alex Smith, just prior to the start of the season. And after a devastating playoff loss at Indy- in which the Chiefs blew a 38-10 3rd Quarter lead (still absolutely mind boggling to me)- and now starting off the 2014 campaign at 0-2, Lardass Hogan and the boys are ready to right the ship.

The Dolphins are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 as a home favorite of 3.5-10 points. And I'm not exactly sure what Vegas is looking at here. Sure, they beat the Patriots at home in Week 1, but they went on the road last week, and got absolutely pollaxed in Buffalo. And now you're asking me to lay 4 and a hook to a wounded animal, whose QB and coach I like a lot better, than the QB/coach combo in Miami? Like Bryce Harper told Danny Espinosa after hitting that moon ball at Citi Field last week, "ummm, no." 21-17 Chiefs.

Denver at Seattle (-5)
Here is why I'm taking the Seahawks in this spot. (1) The game is in Seattle, which is arguably the toughest place to play for a visiting team in the NFL.  (2) The Seahawks are NOT going to lose two games in a row. And (3), am I the only one who saw that 43-8 Superbowl beat down between these two seven months ago?

Hey talking heads, spare me the "Denver has had this game circled on their calendar for seven months" bullshit. Nonsense. The Broncos- and horse-tooth jack ass John Elway- convinced Roger "Short Timer" Goodell to cupcake them two home games to start this campaign. This would give one of the few NFL players without a mugshot, the best chance to start the season 2-0, and in turn the best chance to secure a second Lombardi Trophy. Well, that's exactly what they got.

The only consequence for this, was that in Week 3 they were going to have to travel up to the Pacific Northwest and get their asses handed to them. And that's exactly what they got there, as well.

Don't concern yourself with Seattle's loss last week at San Diego. They still played a very physical game, and in my opinion, ran into what will end up being the AFC representative in this year's Super Bowl. Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. They also play the underdog role- though an infrequent spot, very poorly. 1-6 ATS last 7 as a dog. Deju Vu all over again, Yogi. 31-16 Seahawks. 

Last Week                                                             3-1 ATS
YTD                                                                     4-6 ATS (40%)
Reg. Season Since '09                          192-154-12 ATS  (55%)

Follow along as we pursue excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on Twitter.

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