Friday, October 3, 2014

NFL Week 5: Vegas Week

Because I'm tired of taking it on the chin as a prognosticator, and because I'm busy doing other shit in preparation for my 5 days in Sin City starting this weekend, I'm not going to give much "insight" into this week's picks. In fact, I've officially gone to the bullpen and have had my partner in crime, and the ass hat I'll be hanging with this weekend- The Legend- pick two of the five games for me. In any case, the Yack (dick-ish third person "speak") is on a cooler, and needs back up quickly. "Legend.....?!?!?"

Chicago (+2.5) at Carolina
Jay Cutler or L.A. Realtor?
The Panthers are starting an un-drafted rookie at running back this week. My brain has started a bunch of un-drafted brain cells through the first 4 weeks of this season, as I've struggled to an 8-12 ATS record. Jay Cutler is tied for second in the entire league with 10 TDs thrown. He also looks exactly like one of those gay real estate agents on "Million Dollar Listing L.A". And when I say gay, word police, I say it because the guy is really gay, as in he's a homosexual.

Da Bears are 0-2 at home and 2-0 on the road. Carolina's once bend but don't break defense is currently 24th in total yards allowed and 17th in points allowed. Not to mention their offense is bottom 7 in both yards and points per game. Jay Cutler stakes his claim, and puts his sign in the yard on the road again. SOLD BY JAY! 19-14 Bears.        

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (+6)
Danny Smith's punter "booted" a 29 yard punt last week to put the previously win less Buccaneers in primo starting position, just prior to their go ahead touchdown. Following the Special Teams blunder and subsequent chok-errrrrr, losing of the game, Smith told reporters, "For a moment there, I thought I was back in Washington." And for Redskin fan, whose team has had an interesting 4 weeks doing that Special Teams thing, it was "right back at ya, Danny!"

Pittsburgh's Steel Curtain is now 21st in the league in points allowed through 4 weeks. And as a whole, the Steelers are being outscored 73-41 in the second half of games played this year. I don't think the Steelers are very good, and at some point Blake Bortles and the Jacks are going to keep a game close. The Steelers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 as a road favorite. Martigale the dog piss out of the Jacks until they cover, and let's hope "until" comes this Sunday. 23-20 Steelers.

Baltimore at Indy (-3.5)
Although the Ravens have had an interesting first few weeks of the season with all the Ray Rice news, the only drama surrounding Andrew Luck is how long he'll let his neck hair grow, and if he'll spout off that trademark goofy laugh of his at post game pressers.

The Colts are 4-0 ATS at home in their last 4 home contests vs a team with a winning record. Baltimore is not that good, IMO. They lost at home to the only good team they've played thus far (Cincy), and getting the Colts in this spot is not exactly awful Pittsburgh on a short week with travel (Week 2) or last week at home vs a beat up Carolina team. HUH-HUH-HUH-Giggle-Giggle-HUH-HUH-HUH-Giggle-Giggle. Colts 31-23.

Tampa at New Orleans (-10)
I must've missed the memo regarding the New Orleans Saints and Drew Brees sucking, because I'm not really sure what I was watching last Sunday night in Dallas. 1-3 through 4 weeks, and Saints fans are Jonesing for the days of bounties and Sean Payton rummaging through the team doctor's office for pills.

The Saints have won 5 straight tilts between these two, which includes the last 3 played in N'Orleans. Those 3 games included 2 games which saw the Saints post at least a 40 piece on the scoreboard, with the average margin of victory being 25 points. I'll give you Mike Glennon, and I'll take Drew Brees. Fair? Don't break out those paper bags quite yet, Saint fan.  36-21 Saints.

Buffalo at Detroit (-7)
Kyle Orton was named the starter this week in Buffalo. Bad news for him and his teammates is that they have a date with the NFL's #1 ranked defense. Yep, Lion fan, you're allowing the fewest yards per game (267.3 yards/per), and the 4th lowest points per (15.5). Ndamukong Suh has been so impressed with how the Lions entire unit has come together, that he hasn't had to step on anyone's head yet, after the whistle blows.

The Bills are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 roadies vs a team with a winning record. Megatron should be a go following some ankle issues, and he is primed to go 9-172-2. The NFC North might be the most interesting and competitive division in football this year, and like my boy D. Green, I like the Lions. 31-17 Detroit.

LAST WEEK                                                        1-4 ATS
YTD                                                                   8-12 ATS (40%)
Reg. Season Since '09                          196-160-12 ATS (55%)

Follow along as we pursue excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on Twitter.

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