Wednesday, September 30, 2015

The Legend Chronicles, Part 3: The Legend Questions My Week 4 ATS Selections

The Westgate Five

8:59 AM (5 hours ago)
to Legend 
Re: The Westgate Five

10:23 AM (4 hours ago)
to Yack    
Is this some kind of fuckin joke ?? just keep in mind ‘’good’’ teams win….
.....’’great’’ teams cover………

Thursday, September 24, 2015

NFL Week 3: The Pope Gave Me These Games, So You Should Probably Load Up

Tampa at Houston (-6.5)
"Lets Go Find Houston a W"
You would've thought the Texans first two games were played in Richmond, Va, or that they weren't allowed to listen to music in the practices leading up to their losses vs KC and last week at Carolina. I'm not sure if the Texans have some "Hard Knocks" hangover, but they should hire a True Detective immediately, and find themselves a W. Coming back home to face the road weary Bucs should help.

I like the Texans in this spot because they need that W, and I like them in this spot facing the rook Jamesis on the road for the second week in a row, coming off his victorious crab fest in New Orleans. (see last week's Tenn/Cleve analysis)

The Texans need to get Arian Foster back ASAP. And that would help and would make this bettor happy considering they're 4-0 ATS following a week in which they accumulated less than 90 yards rushing. They haven't hit the 100 yard rushing mark thru two weeks. But the key will be J.J. Watt (3 sacks) and the Texans line getting to Winston, whose been sacked 7 times thru the first two weeks. The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 following an ATS win. 24-14, Texans.

New Orleans at Carolina (-4.5)
Even The Pope Can't Take The Saints In This Spot
The Saints are awful. And I'm not going to fall into the trap of playing the "they're 0-2 and are due" theory (I mean, I did in the first game I took, but not here....) Personally, I think they suck and might not win 5 games. As documented in earlier posts, they had a fire sale in the off season, and reports now are that Drew Brees isn't even healthy.

The Cats are 5th in total defense thru 2 weeks, and I expect Cam Newton to pad his relatively mediocre stats thus far, against a defense in New Orleans who is giving up 380+ yards/per. The last time these two teams met (in New Orleans), the Panthers hung 41 on the Saints, and accrued 497 total yards of offense. The Panthers have now won 6 straight regular season games, while the Saints have failed to cover 4 straight overall, and their last 4 in division. Who dat wearing them paper bags? 27-21 Panthers.

Oakland at Cleveland (-3.5)
Betting on the Brownies two weeks in a row? Yeah, maybe I'm a moron, but I don't like what I'm seeing from the Rai-duzz defensively (DFL thru 2 weeks), and I certainly don't like the West Coast to East Coast, 1pm kick for the Silver and Black. They attempted this 3 times last year and were 0-3 in all 3, and failed to cover (3.5) in each of them.

The Browns will hand the keys back to the recently concussed Josh McCown, while shorty takes a seat again on the bench. Browns will exploit a Rai-duzz secondary that is giving up 326 yards per game, most likely by throwing to everyone's fantasy football free agent acquisition this week, Travis Benjamin, who has already caught 3 touchdowns, and whose averaging 34 yards/catch. Consider the OVER here too, as the Rai-duzz have played in 6 straight vs. AFC opponents. 31-19 Browns. 

Atlanta at Dallas (+2)
Jerry Jones loves this guy
Jerry Jones says that Brandon Weeden is the second coming of Johnny U, or something to that effect. And when Jerry speaks, his botox laden mouth barely moves, but more importantly, I listen.

I seem to be in the minority, especially in the DMV, but I'm not going to punt on Dallas just because Romo went down, and Dez went down, and apparently Jason Witten is banged up...actually, that's a lot of f**king injuries to your offensive starters. But in all seriousness, I think Dallas has a good enough offensive line to allow Brandon U to manage the game, and produce points.

Last week in relief for Tony Romo, Weeden was 7 for 7 with a touchdown, which was crucial in Dallas not completely falling on their faces after Romo went down. Secondly, Dallas has a pretty good defense. They're yielding the 3rd lowest amount of yards per week, and I think they'll force Atlanta to be one dimensional with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, as the Falcons are gaining just 80 yards on the ground (22nd overall), on top of the fact that their starting RB has cracked rib(s) and is questionable to play. My barking dogs this year are 2-0 ATS and 2-0 SU (St. Louis, Cleveland), and I expect to hit the trifecta this week in Big D. 26-21 Cowboys.

San Fran at Arizona (-6.5)
The Cardinals might be good enough to be playing Green Bay for the right to play for the Lombardi Trophy. They're not blowing up statistically, except of course, in the all important win column. And they're doing so because of good sound football.

For one, Carson Palmer has yet to be sacked. And in between not having to pick himself up off the ground, Palmer has thrown 7 TDs to just 1 pick, and his 124.4 passer rating is 3rd behind A-Rod and some rookie who plays in Tennessee. Conversely, I'm still (and never have been) a huge fan of Colin Kapernick. He had the benefit of a rookie who went absolutely off in week 1 running the rock, Carlos Hyde (168 yards and 2 TDs), and Kap's only scores thus far- essentially, came in garbage time last week in Pittsburgh when the Niners doors were long ago blown off.

Hyde got a little dinged up at Pittsburgh, and will be limited this week. And as in the Atl/Dal game, expect the Cardinals to force Kap to beat them with his arm, which I don't think will happen. Frisco is on the back end of back-to-back roadies, in a spot in which I could see Arizona keeping their collective foot on their divisional foe's throat. Arizona is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 September tilts. Possible beat down here. 34-14 Cardinals. 

Last Week    2-3 ATS
YTD             5-5 ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 9/24/2015**follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

The Legend Chronicles, Part 2: The Legend Berates Me After a 2-3 ATS Week, Bringing "Us" To 5-5 ATS For The Year

"Aok…will advise all pts.....u shud henceforth be referred to as mr 50 per cent…… least it is an improvement over last year……u dumb fuck…..i am sick and tired of ur fuckin mediocrity ….."

Sunday, September 20, 2015

NFL Week 2: No Stinky Feet Here, Just More ATS Winners

The Legend and I sprinted out of the gate in the first week of the Westgate Super Contest, to a winning 3-2 post against the number. And although we missed one of our two weekly 15 team teasers by one game (the f**king Colts), that would've paid us $3,500 (as we would've also middled our 15th game- Philly at Atlanta), we'll still take a winning week in "the contest" over any exotics we might play on the side. (By the way, can anyone refer us to an AA for sports wagering?.... Thanks.)

We did start off our second week on a losing note, as it seems Andy Reid is not as successful in managing 36 seconds to simply get to Overtime, as he is in managing a Sunday morning Bob Evans All You Can Eat Breakfast Buffet. Some of his play calling left little to be desired, including the before mentioned final minute of play. For those keeping score at home, our KC (-3) loss will be calculated in next week's totals.

New England (-1) at Buffalo
Millions of Feet, Feet For Me. Million of Feet, Feet for Free.
Here is why I like the Pats in this tilt. The Patriots have Tom Brady at Quarterback, and the Bills have Tyrod Taylor. I don't even know what the f**k a "Tyrod" is.

Is it a hybrid of Tyrone and Rodney? "Yo baby, I want to name him Tyrone!....F**k dat, he looks like a Rodney to me!" But I digress.

The Patriots are coached by Bill Belichek and his do anything to win-errrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, cheat mentality, and the Bills are coached by a guy who in between lap band surgeries, works one out on his wife's feet while he's watching game film.

I'm not buying Buffalo... yet. And I'm not buying that a Quarterback in his second career start, is going to whore both Andrew Luck and Tom Brady in consecutive weeks. (this logic is sort of used again in my Tenn/Clev breakdown below)

The Patriots are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 versus Buffalo, including last year- in Buffalo, when New England put a 37-22 beat down on the Bills, as Brady threw for 361 yards and 4 TDs. I'll take Brady, Belichek's scheming, all those Super Bowl rings, and the 10 days off. 30-20 Patriots.

Tennessee at Cleveland (+1)
This is simply a value play, folks. Generally speaking, I see a lot of value in betting against teams on the back end of back-to-back roadies. I love my bet even better when that team I'm about to bet against won that first roadie. And to compound that even more, I REALLY LOVE my bet when that team I'm about to bet against, is Captained by a rookie. So in closing, if I get beat by a rookie Quarterback who will have started off his NFL career 2-0, winning both of those games on the road, get a yellow jacket tailored (already) for Mr. Mariota, and get me a straight one of those.

To be somewhat serious, I think Tampa Bay is a horseshit team, who is lacking everywhere, and last week's Titans' opponent was a cupcake. I think the Browns have a descent Offensive Line and pretty good defensive backs. Give me the newly sober (allegedly) Johnny Football a full week of practice with the ones, in a system he's already familiar with, and this game might just be so easy-please me, Axl Rose. In fact, I'm calling it: blowout. 33-13 Brownies. 

Atlanta at NY Giants (-2.5)
"Uh, Oh...."
Matt Ryan is an enigma. He's thrown for four straight 4,000 yard seasons, and seems to be regarded as one of the better Quarterbacks in the National Football League, but the dude also- at times, seems like a complete dipshit. I've never seen a guy, like he did this past Monday Night, throw just as many great passes, as he did "what the f**k was he thinking?!?!" passes. He's like the guy who on a first date, greets the girl at her front door with a dozen roses, takes her out to a nice restaurant for dinner, but who then cuts a wet fart in between having eaten desert and paying for the check.

Speaking of wet farts, the G-Men had a rough one in Big D last week. I haven't seen that much curious play calling from an opponents' 1 yard line with the game on the line, since, umm..."oh, hey, it's Pete Carroll, ladies and gentlemen!"

Bottom-line, the Giants should've won that game. And tho I heard all off and pre-season that their defense was going to be their achilles heel, the G-Men's defense had other things in mind and they were not the reason they lost. They forced 3 Cowboys fumbles, and picked off Tony Romo two times. And following a week of brow beatings by the NY media, expect Red Face Coughlin and the boys to come out firing on all cylinders.

Do you like trends? Well, I do, and I'm the simpleton mother f**ker writing this drivel. The G-Men are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a week in which they allowed 350+ yards. The favorite when these two hook up, is 4-1 ATS in the last 5. Just when you think Matty Ice is going to go home and score, he will get an uncomfortable look on his face, and excuse himself to the bathroom to throw another pick six. 23-17 Giants.

Baltimore (-5.5) at Oakland
As my buddy Jabby Burns says about this one, "the Ravens will pick themselves up from their week 1 loss in Denver, and then realize that they're the Ravens, and their next opponent is the Raiders." And it might be just that simple, people.

The incompetents that run the NFL- specifically in the scheduling department, did the Baltimore Black Crowes no favors in their first month and change of games, specific to travel. Check this shit out:

Baltimore started at Denver. They then were essentially forced to stay and practice on the West Coast because of this week's game in probably the biggest dump of a city I've ever been to, Oakland. They then get to come home finally, and play divisional rival Cincy. For the NFL scheduling department's next trick, the Crowes then get the short week and go to divisional foe Pittsburgh. They then get some relief in the 10 days off and with Cleveland coming to town, but then go to San Francisco and then to Arizona, which again, forces the Ravens to stay on the West Coast for another full week prior to a game.

"Gee, thanks Roger. We'll remember to never, ever again, employ a guy who beats his girlfriend in front of casino elevator security cameras, which will then make you look like a horses ass for how you handled it."- Ravens Owner, Steve Bisciotti, probably.

What's my point? With their "Up In The Air" first 6 weeks, this Week 2 game in Oakland, in which Baltimore is much the best, is a game they need to just put away. Joe Flacco's miserable week 1 performance will be a distant memory, by 4:30 pm...West Coast time. 28-10 Ravens.

Last Week  3-2 ATS
YTD           3-2 ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sporstbook, 9/17/2015** follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

Thursday, September 10, 2015

NFL Week 1: A Fresh Start, A New Day, Another $1,500 Posted

Readers of this snarky ass, sometimes less than PC blog, know that one of my favorite times of the year is the NFL season. This gives me an opportunity to share my insight on the ATS numbers that Vegas posts each week. And up until the end of the 2012 campaign, my record (115-77-9 ATS- 60%) was pretty God Damn stellar.

But somewhere along the way- kind of like the QB formerly known as RG3- "we" got wayward off the tracks, and the 2013 and 2014 seasons were sub .500 disasters.

My record in 2013 was one game under .500 (41-42-2), but last year was just a complete abortion. I was left beaten and battered and scattered, into a million different ATS loser pieces, like a Planned Parenthood video. It got so bad that I was shamed into a corner by my betting partner, The Vegas Legend, and I took my ball and went home. I stopped posting my picks, as I was a dismal 9-16 thru 5 weeks.

But just like Matt Williams tells us while chomping on his gum following another Nats loss, tomorrow is a new day and we've got to just go out there and get'em. And a new day in mine and The Legend's world, is the 2015 Westgate Super Contest.

My goal this year, as is the goal every year, is to at least cash. We have yet to do so in two years of participating. The ultimate goal, of course, would be to take down the entire thing. Last year, over 1,400 players participated, creating a $736,000 1st place prize. The Westgate is expecting final participant totals this year to surpass 2,000, and for this year's 1st place prize to be near $900,000.

So....good luck to "us".

Green Bay (-7) at Chicago
The Packers have been a solid play in this match up of old school, NFC Central rivals. When it comes to Packers/Bears as of late, the team who resides in the Windy City, hasn't exactly resembled the Monsters of The Midway. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Football Packers have won 9 of the last 10 vs Da Bears SU, most of the time in ass whuppin' fashion. Last year's games were complete beat downs (55-14 and 38-17), and if you take the ATS angle, which is what "we" do here, the Pack has covered 6.5 points in 8 of those same 10 games. Look for A-Rod to have another huge day, versus a pass defense that finished 30th in the 2014 campaign. 30-16, Packers.

Seattle at St. Louis (+4)
Following a disappointing end to the 2014 campaign, in which the Seahawks had Marshawn Lynch standing on the sideline dreaming up clever responses to reporters while they dropped back Russell Wilson from the Patriots 1 yard line, the Seahawks and a much deeper pocketed Wilson ride into St. Louis looking to get off on a winning note. Not so fast, grunge rockers. The Edward Jones Dome hasn't exactly been the Seahawks home away from home. They've lost 3 of their last 5 games played there, and the before mentioned Beast- Lynch, hasn't broken the 100 yard mark vs. their divisional foe in three years. His last 4 efforts vs the Rams were for 60, 53, 23, and 97 yards. Seattle will be without big hitting safety Kam Chancellor, and St. Louis will trot out newly acquired Nick "Sweeeeeet" Foles, who has some serious nunchuck skills. 19-17 Seahawks. 

Tennessee at Tampa Bay (-3)
"I'm coming to get you, Marcus!"
Jamesis Winston might not be teaching English at your spoiled brat's hand picked University anytime soon, but he will be throwing for and running for Touchdowns in the National Football League. All kidding aside, I love Winston and his all business attitude since going pro. And he has some descent talent around him and a tenured head coach. Doug Martin should bounce back from a lackluster 2014, and he has some weapons in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. I'm not high on Marcus Mariota. He was all roses at Oregon, and punked Winston and FSU in the Rose Bowl, but I think between these two he'll have the harder time adjusting to the NFL game. Winston and the Bucs come out on top here, and he will celebrate by eating "hot" crab legs off of some of Tampa's finest tattooed, talent. 20-13 Bucs.

New Orleans at Arizona (-2.5)
Hello....the Cardinals started last year on an 8-1 heater. Their season was pretty much shot when Carson Palmer went down. They still managed to finish 11-5, but it wasn't quite enough playing in the same division with the Super Bowl runner up, 12-4, Seahawks. But Palmer is healthy again, and he has some pretty nice weapons in Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. The Saints, on the other-hand, had a bit of a fire sale unloading Drew Brees' go to Jimmy Graham, and their # 1 WR from last year, Kenny Stills. The Saints were 3-4 ATS on grass last year, and traditionally have not faired well outside of the Superdome. Look for Palmer to light up a horrific Saints defense (31st in 2014). 37-23 Cards.

NY Giants at Dallas (-6.5)
"Give me the ball...You said 'ball'....huh-huh...huh-huh"
Myself and The Legend are all in  with the Cowboys this year. We have them to win the Super Bowl (18/1), which we purchased in March- which by the way, their current SB odds are down to 9/1. And we also bet their win total OVER 9.5. I love their offensive line, and I don't think they're going to miss a step with the departure of Demarco Murray. They might end up having a running back by committee situation, but quite frankly, Bevis and Butthead could run behind that line and put up Pro Bowl like numbers. They had the 2nd best run game in the entire league last year, and their Quarterback- the most overly criticized NFL QB in NFL history,  led the entire league with a 113.2 passer rating.  The Giants have some issues, none of which start with the fact that their starting Pro Bowl defensive end doubles as a fireworks tester in the off season. Their defense is not very good. They were a modest 19th overall, but they were just 26th against the pass. I think Tony Romo will exploit this, and overall, I think Dallas' roster is significantly better than the Giants. The Giants have lost 4 straight SU against the 'Boys, and the G-Men have also lost 4 straight ATS in Week 1. 36-21 Cowboys. 

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 9/10/2015** follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

Rich Turpin's Very Super Forecast: The 2017 Washington Redskins

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