Thursday, September 10, 2015

NFL Week 1: A Fresh Start, A New Day, Another $1,500 Posted

Readers of this snarky ass, sometimes less than PC blog, know that one of my favorite times of the year is the NFL season. This gives me an opportunity to share my insight on the ATS numbers that Vegas posts each week. And up until the end of the 2012 campaign, my record (115-77-9 ATS- 60%) was pretty God Damn stellar.

But somewhere along the way- kind of like the QB formerly known as RG3- "we" got wayward off the tracks, and the 2013 and 2014 seasons were sub .500 disasters.

My record in 2013 was one game under .500 (41-42-2), but last year was just a complete abortion. I was left beaten and battered and scattered, into a million different ATS loser pieces, like a Planned Parenthood video. It got so bad that I was shamed into a corner by my betting partner, The Vegas Legend, and I took my ball and went home. I stopped posting my picks, as I was a dismal 9-16 thru 5 weeks.

But just like Matt Williams tells us while chomping on his gum following another Nats loss, tomorrow is a new day and we've got to just go out there and get'em. And a new day in mine and The Legend's world, is the 2015 Westgate Super Contest.

My goal this year, as is the goal every year, is to at least cash. We have yet to do so in two years of participating. The ultimate goal, of course, would be to take down the entire thing. Last year, over 1,400 players participated, creating a $736,000 1st place prize. The Westgate is expecting final participant totals this year to surpass 2,000, and for this year's 1st place prize to be near $900,000.

So....good luck to "us".

Green Bay (-7) at Chicago
The Packers have been a solid play in this match up of old school, NFC Central rivals. When it comes to Packers/Bears as of late, the team who resides in the Windy City, hasn't exactly resembled the Monsters of The Midway. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Football Packers have won 9 of the last 10 vs Da Bears SU, most of the time in ass whuppin' fashion. Last year's games were complete beat downs (55-14 and 38-17), and if you take the ATS angle, which is what "we" do here, the Pack has covered 6.5 points in 8 of those same 10 games. Look for A-Rod to have another huge day, versus a pass defense that finished 30th in the 2014 campaign. 30-16, Packers.

Seattle at St. Louis (+4)
Following a disappointing end to the 2014 campaign, in which the Seahawks had Marshawn Lynch standing on the sideline dreaming up clever responses to reporters while they dropped back Russell Wilson from the Patriots 1 yard line, the Seahawks and a much deeper pocketed Wilson ride into St. Louis looking to get off on a winning note. Not so fast, grunge rockers. The Edward Jones Dome hasn't exactly been the Seahawks home away from home. They've lost 3 of their last 5 games played there, and the before mentioned Beast- Lynch, hasn't broken the 100 yard mark vs. their divisional foe in three years. His last 4 efforts vs the Rams were for 60, 53, 23, and 97 yards. Seattle will be without big hitting safety Kam Chancellor, and St. Louis will trot out newly acquired Nick "Sweeeeeet" Foles, who has some serious nunchuck skills. 19-17 Seahawks. 

Tennessee at Tampa Bay (-3)
"I'm coming to get you, Marcus!"
Jamesis Winston might not be teaching English at your spoiled brat's hand picked University anytime soon, but he will be throwing for and running for Touchdowns in the National Football League. All kidding aside, I love Winston and his all business attitude since going pro. And he has some descent talent around him and a tenured head coach. Doug Martin should bounce back from a lackluster 2014, and he has some weapons in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. I'm not high on Marcus Mariota. He was all roses at Oregon, and punked Winston and FSU in the Rose Bowl, but I think between these two he'll have the harder time adjusting to the NFL game. Winston and the Bucs come out on top here, and he will celebrate by eating "hot" crab legs off of some of Tampa's finest tattooed, talent. 20-13 Bucs.

New Orleans at Arizona (-2.5)
Hello....the Cardinals started last year on an 8-1 heater. Their season was pretty much shot when Carson Palmer went down. They still managed to finish 11-5, but it wasn't quite enough playing in the same division with the Super Bowl runner up, 12-4, Seahawks. But Palmer is healthy again, and he has some pretty nice weapons in Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. The Saints, on the other-hand, had a bit of a fire sale unloading Drew Brees' go to Jimmy Graham, and their # 1 WR from last year, Kenny Stills. The Saints were 3-4 ATS on grass last year, and traditionally have not faired well outside of the Superdome. Look for Palmer to light up a horrific Saints defense (31st in 2014). 37-23 Cards.

NY Giants at Dallas (-6.5)
"Give me the ball...You said 'ball'....huh-huh...huh-huh"
Myself and The Legend are all in  with the Cowboys this year. We have them to win the Super Bowl (18/1), which we purchased in March- which by the way, their current SB odds are down to 9/1. And we also bet their win total OVER 9.5. I love their offensive line, and I don't think they're going to miss a step with the departure of Demarco Murray. They might end up having a running back by committee situation, but quite frankly, Bevis and Butthead could run behind that line and put up Pro Bowl like numbers. They had the 2nd best run game in the entire league last year, and their Quarterback- the most overly criticized NFL QB in NFL history,  led the entire league with a 113.2 passer rating.  The Giants have some issues, none of which start with the fact that their starting Pro Bowl defensive end doubles as a fireworks tester in the off season. Their defense is not very good. They were a modest 19th overall, but they were just 26th against the pass. I think Tony Romo will exploit this, and overall, I think Dallas' roster is significantly better than the Giants. The Giants have lost 4 straight SU against the 'Boys, and the G-Men have also lost 4 straight ATS in Week 1. 36-21 Cowboys. 

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 9/10/2015** follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

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