Thursday, September 24, 2015

NFL Week 3: The Pope Gave Me These Games, So You Should Probably Load Up

Tampa at Houston (-6.5)
"Lets Go Find Houston a W"
You would've thought the Texans first two games were played in Richmond, Va, or that they weren't allowed to listen to music in the practices leading up to their losses vs KC and last week at Carolina. I'm not sure if the Texans have some "Hard Knocks" hangover, but they should hire a True Detective immediately, and find themselves a W. Coming back home to face the road weary Bucs should help.

I like the Texans in this spot because they need that W, and I like them in this spot facing the rook Jamesis on the road for the second week in a row, coming off his victorious crab fest in New Orleans. (see last week's Tenn/Cleve analysis)

The Texans need to get Arian Foster back ASAP. And that would help and would make this bettor happy considering they're 4-0 ATS following a week in which they accumulated less than 90 yards rushing. They haven't hit the 100 yard rushing mark thru two weeks. But the key will be J.J. Watt (3 sacks) and the Texans line getting to Winston, whose been sacked 7 times thru the first two weeks. The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 following an ATS win. 24-14, Texans.

New Orleans at Carolina (-4.5)
Even The Pope Can't Take The Saints In This Spot
The Saints are awful. And I'm not going to fall into the trap of playing the "they're 0-2 and are due" theory (I mean, I did in the first game I took, but not here....) Personally, I think they suck and might not win 5 games. As documented in earlier posts, they had a fire sale in the off season, and reports now are that Drew Brees isn't even healthy.

The Cats are 5th in total defense thru 2 weeks, and I expect Cam Newton to pad his relatively mediocre stats thus far, against a defense in New Orleans who is giving up 380+ yards/per. The last time these two teams met (in New Orleans), the Panthers hung 41 on the Saints, and accrued 497 total yards of offense. The Panthers have now won 6 straight regular season games, while the Saints have failed to cover 4 straight overall, and their last 4 in division. Who dat wearing them paper bags? 27-21 Panthers.

Oakland at Cleveland (-3.5)
Betting on the Brownies two weeks in a row? Yeah, maybe I'm a moron, but I don't like what I'm seeing from the Rai-duzz defensively (DFL thru 2 weeks), and I certainly don't like the West Coast to East Coast, 1pm kick for the Silver and Black. They attempted this 3 times last year and were 0-3 in all 3, and failed to cover (3.5) in each of them.

The Browns will hand the keys back to the recently concussed Josh McCown, while shorty takes a seat again on the bench. Browns will exploit a Rai-duzz secondary that is giving up 326 yards per game, most likely by throwing to everyone's fantasy football free agent acquisition this week, Travis Benjamin, who has already caught 3 touchdowns, and whose averaging 34 yards/catch. Consider the OVER here too, as the Rai-duzz have played in 6 straight vs. AFC opponents. 31-19 Browns. 

Atlanta at Dallas (+2)
Jerry Jones loves this guy
Jerry Jones says that Brandon Weeden is the second coming of Johnny U, or something to that effect. And when Jerry speaks, his botox laden mouth barely moves, but more importantly, I listen.

I seem to be in the minority, especially in the DMV, but I'm not going to punt on Dallas just because Romo went down, and Dez went down, and apparently Jason Witten is banged up...actually, that's a lot of f**king injuries to your offensive starters. But in all seriousness, I think Dallas has a good enough offensive line to allow Brandon U to manage the game, and produce points.

Last week in relief for Tony Romo, Weeden was 7 for 7 with a touchdown, which was crucial in Dallas not completely falling on their faces after Romo went down. Secondly, Dallas has a pretty good defense. They're yielding the 3rd lowest amount of yards per week, and I think they'll force Atlanta to be one dimensional with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, as the Falcons are gaining just 80 yards on the ground (22nd overall), on top of the fact that their starting RB has cracked rib(s) and is questionable to play. My barking dogs this year are 2-0 ATS and 2-0 SU (St. Louis, Cleveland), and I expect to hit the trifecta this week in Big D. 26-21 Cowboys.

San Fran at Arizona (-6.5)
The Cardinals might be good enough to be playing Green Bay for the right to play for the Lombardi Trophy. They're not blowing up statistically, except of course, in the all important win column. And they're doing so because of good sound football.

For one, Carson Palmer has yet to be sacked. And in between not having to pick himself up off the ground, Palmer has thrown 7 TDs to just 1 pick, and his 124.4 passer rating is 3rd behind A-Rod and some rookie who plays in Tennessee. Conversely, I'm still (and never have been) a huge fan of Colin Kapernick. He had the benefit of a rookie who went absolutely off in week 1 running the rock, Carlos Hyde (168 yards and 2 TDs), and Kap's only scores thus far- essentially, came in garbage time last week in Pittsburgh when the Niners doors were long ago blown off.

Hyde got a little dinged up at Pittsburgh, and will be limited this week. And as in the Atl/Dal game, expect the Cardinals to force Kap to beat them with his arm, which I don't think will happen. Frisco is on the back end of back-to-back roadies, in a spot in which I could see Arizona keeping their collective foot on their divisional foe's throat. Arizona is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 September tilts. Possible beat down here. 34-14 Cardinals. 

Last Week    2-3 ATS
YTD             5-5 ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 9/24/2015**follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

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