Thursday, October 29, 2015

NFL Week 8: "Heeeeeeeere's, Winners!"

Miami at New England (-8)
Its been a tough go of it for 'The Yack' on our attempt to secure a W in the Thursday night tilt (0-2 ATS) this season. But I can't turn this offer down, and I hope the only aspect of the "Things Happen in Threes" Rule here, are the number of pickles Ryan Tannehill throws Thursday night in Foxboro.

Please excuse me while I vomit after hearing another talking head tell me about the Culture Change that has happened in Miami since that Meathead Dan Campbell took over the helm. The Dolphins beat a horseshit Tennessee team, and an even horseshittier team in the Houston Texans (disregard my advice last week, to hop on the Texans ATS bandwagon.....sorry.....).

Tannehill and the Dolphins had the benefit of very poor tackling (three of Tannehill's TD completions included 40+ yards YAC), an 85 yard touchdown scamper by Lamar Miller, and a pick six by Miami's defense. By the end of the first half (41-0 Miami), I was wondering if the Sunday morning report was really meant to read, "Houston's entire team misses the team flight to Miami."

The Fins are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC East, and they've failed to cover 6 straight in Foxboro. As far as handicapping goes, you should always lay heavy 'capping consideration with regard to the Head Coach/QB matchup. Hoodie/Pretty boy (greater than) Meathead/Tanneshill. 33-17 Patriots. 

Detroit (+5) at Kansas City
Two more huuuuurting teams make the trip across the pond to visit our former tax collectors in London. And if Roger Goodell and the NFL continue scheduling these types of games overseas, "horseshit NFL matchups" are going to become more common in England than yellow, crooked teeth.

Yeah, I really don't care if the Lions just fired half their coaching staff. It actually might be a good thing (see Miami's last two games vs bad teams following a coaching change). Alls I know is that the Kansas City Chefs are not very good, and regardless of how bad you may think the Lions are, neither one of these losers should be laying more than a field goal.

Andy Reid's Chefs are yielding 368 yards/per game (20th) and almost 25 points/per game (18th). They're also 25th in the league in passing yards allowed, which is a stat that a gun slinger like Matthew Stafford can exploit (can I use the term "gun slinger", MSNBC? If not, please send all complaints to The Chefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 overall. Its a last minute field goal game either way. I'll throw my boy @cublion a bone here, to help erase the misery of the Cubs sweep. 24-21 Lions.

NY Giants at New Orleans (-3)
Ride the heater, Saint fan. After the former bag wearers dropped their first three games of the 2015 campaign (two of which were to future playoff participants Arizona and Carolina), the Pope's favorite team has rattled off 3 wins in their last 4 contests. And I like them in this spot, on that heater, laying a smallish number to a team who is doing it with smoke and mirrors.

Congrats to Tom Coughlin and the G-Men. They finally beat the hated Dallas Cowboys after 5 straight losses to their divisional foe. But take a look at that game for a minute, and look at what the Giants are doing, or not doing over their last few. Dallas handed the G-Men 14 of their 27 points off of a pick 6 and a 100 yard kick off return. And the G-Men are getting absolutely gashed by their opponents' run game.

Dallas, unbelievably enough in a loss, had 233 yards on the ground. The week before, the G-Men gave up 158 on the ground to Philly, and the week before that, they gave up 124 to a very bad San Francisco team. And the Saints are running it. They've rushed for 463 yards over their last 4 games (115/per), including 183 on the ground last week at Indy. Consider Mark Ingram in all your Fan Duel and Draft King games.  The G-Men are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 trips to N'Orleans. Who Dat, Who Dat, Who Dat....? Dat's Dem Saints. 29-20 Saints.

Seattle at Dallas (+6)
I'm going back to the "Seattle has some issues, and is NOT the Seattle team from the last few years" card. Although, I picked the wrong week to give up sniffing glue, or to bet against Seattle the Thursday night they visited awful San Francisco, I'm going to focus on the same points when betting against them here.

For starters, I don't think Dallas is nearly as bad. Yes, Romo is out and they're on their second back up Quarterback, but they can still run the ball (7th) and they're better than average on the defensive side of the ball (8th). And I think they're due. Yes, I'm playing the due factor. Dallas has lost 4 straight since Tony Romo went down, but I think they stick around in this spot.

That maniac Greg Hardy will lead a Dallas defense that leads the league in knocking clipboards out of assistant coach's hands, as they face a Seattle offensive line that has allowed their QB to be sacked a league leading 31 times. Expect Dallas to go run heavy, on the heels of the before mentioned 233 yard performance in The Meadowlands. The S'Hawks are just 2-4-1 ATS on the year, and they've lost 3 straight in Dallas. If Matt Cassel doesn't throw pick sixes like its going out of style, Dallas sticks around and this game goes under the posted (41) total. The underdog in this match-up is 7-2 ATS over the last 9 head to heads.  Like Ronnie The Limo Driver says, "Due". 19-17 Seahawks.

Green Bay at Denver (+3)
Peyton Manning continues to shine brighter in his Direct TV and Papa John's commercials, than he does on the football field. Thru 6 games of the 2015 campaign, he's the leader of team who is 6-0, but his stat line reads like Trent Dilfer 2000. He's thrown just 7 TDs to 10 INTs, and his poor play has kept inferior teams around. But coming out of his bye week, I'm giving Quarterback Forehead a chance to resemble something close to what we've seen out of Manning in years past.

If there was ever a value play in ATS betting, this is the game. I get an undefeated team, with the league's #1 defense (allowing the fewest yards AND points per game), as a home dog on National TV, and my Quarterback is Peyton Manning. I've considered the caveat of Aaron Rodgers and his undefeated Packers being the opponent, but seriously, where do I sign up?

Like comparing two thoroughbreds in a Breeder's Cup Stakes Race, lets consider these teams last few opponents. I think its valid to state that Denver has had a tougher last few games against opponents who in the least are surging and/or have been competitive- Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota. The Packers last three contests were against San Diego, St. Louis, and San Francisco. Denver is 5-0 ATS following an ATS loss. Here's to NBC's Michele Tafoya interviewing a victorious Peyton Manning post game, as she tries to not look at that Mikhail Gorbachev on his noggin. 22-20 Broncos. 

Last Week            2-3 ATS
YTD             19-15-1 ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 10-29-2015** Follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

Saturday, October 24, 2015

NFL Week 7: A Symphony of ATS Winners

Our first pick for Week 7 was San Francisco (+6.5), a big fat loser in the Thursday night game. This loss will be reflected in next week's results.

Expect Nick Foles To Be Sweeeet This Weekend
Cleveland at St. Louis (-5.5)
The Rams are coming off their bye. The Browns are coming off a heartbreaking home loss against Peyton Manning and a Broncos offense that continues to let inferior teams stick around. At some point, the porous Browns defense against the run (a league worst 149 yards/game) is going be the straw that breaks the camel's back. And the Rams, who have gone for 164 and 191 on the ground in their last two tilts, will be that straw this Sunday.

Josh McCown has looked pretty good over the last month, but was just average this past weekend (50% comp/2 INTs) against Denver's top defense. St. Louis' defense enters the contest 10th overall, and will help Jeff Fisher and the Rams cover their 4th straight game coming off their bye week. Blowout alert, Nancy Allen. 37-13 Rams.

Atlanta (-4.5) at Tennessee
Speaking of running the ball (and not being able to run the ball), the numbers in this one are UG-UG-ly for the Titans. Atlanta is the stingiest in the league, yielding a league best 78 yards/game on the ground, while the Titans are 28th giving up almost 130. And the Falcons, besides spreading the field with the likes of Jones, White, and Hankerson- can run the ball. Devonta Freeman is an absolutely beast, picking up almost 5 yards/carry, and as a team they're 4th best in the league at a 130 yard/game pace.

Tennessee is middle of the pack (16th) when it comes to running the ball, but I'd expect them to have problems up against the league's best front 7 against the run, with a rookie QB who is apparently hobbling and might not even play. Throw out Atlanta's short week loss at New Orleans, and the Falcons are averaging 32 points/per game. I like those numbers, and I like the Falcons on 10 days rest coming into this one laying a smallish number. Tennessee is 0-6-2 ATS following a SU loss in which they yielded 30 points or more. 34-19 Falcons. 

Houston (+4) at Miami
I Have This Fat Head On The Ceiling Above My Bed
The Texans were poo-poo the first month of the season, but as I've mentioned in prior posts, that was with the God awful Ryan Mallette as starting quarterback. But he's no longer under center and they are a completely different team with Brian Hoyer at the helm, and of course, with a healthy Arian Foster (see last week).

I've never been impressed with Ryan Tannehill. He's near the bottom- league wide, in QB rating (80.1), yards per attempt (6.7), and completion percentage (59.5). And that shouldn't scare a pretty descent Houston defense (11th overall). 

Back to Hoyer. I told you he should still be in Cleveland and would be starting over that midget Manziel if he was. Hoyer throws the ball downfield (8.19 yard/per attempt), he's completing almost 65% of his passes, and his TD to INT ratio isn't Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck- cough,cough- but its still pretty damn good, 8-2. Hop on the Houston ATS train now, people. The right guy is under center, and they're about to start their AFC South divisional run. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two. Ruff-ruff, beeeotches. 28-24 Texans.

NY Football Jets (+9) at New England
Not rocket science in this one. The Jets run the ball well (1st), defend the ball well (1st), and maybe surprisingly to the uninformed, the Patriots haven't exactly beat the dog piss out of the Jets over the last couple years. In fact, the margin of victory between these two over their last four tilts (Jets 1-3 SU, 4-0 ATS) were 1,2,3, and 3.

Last week in a possible look ahead frame of mind, the Jets yielded a 13-10 halftime deficit to the battered Washington Red Clouds. But unlike Jay Gruden's halftime frat party, or whatever is going on during that 15 minutes, Todd Bowles and company made adjustments, and came out and pummeled Kurt Cousins and crew. The Jets front 7 is dominating, and they have two of the best corners in football. Look for New York to exploit New England's 22nd ranked run defense, with a lot of Chris Ivory (115 yards/per game, 5.5 yards/per carry).

I gave you a 9 point dog SU winner two weeks ago with Chicago at Kansas City (humble brag). The Jets have covered 7 straight vs the AFC.  Pound the Jets with the points, and consider a M/L play here too. "I love this game, Skippy!" 27-24 Jets, ruff-ruff. 

Last Week            2-3 ATS
YTD              17-12-1 ATS

*The Yack is in 339th place out of 1,700+, 7 points behind the leader*

*lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 10-22-2015* Follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

Saturday, October 17, 2015

NFL Week 6: This Picking ATS Winners Thing is Becoming So Easy

Coming off my first Westgate Contest (three years running) undefeated week, and a weekend in Vegas with The Legend, Beaver from Sterling, Bernie Sanders, and others, we're looking to continue the springboard with five more winners this Sunday.

After three rounds of golf and a couple afternoons at The Legend's abode, located in an "affluent, gated community" 20 minutes off the Vegas Strip, I am safe and sound back in the DMV, rested and refreshed for more climbing up the leaderboard. Going into this past weekend, "The Yack" was in about 700th place out of the 1,700 or so that entered the contest. The 4-0-1 weekend propelled us almost 400 spots up to 313th place, which is in the Top 20%. Our 15-9-1 record thru 5 weeks (including an impressive 6-1 ATS on our barking dogs-ruff-ruff!) gives us 15.5 points, 5.5 points behind the leader who has 21 points, after his sick 21-4 ATS opening 5 weeks. Onward and upward, beeeotches....

Washington (+6) at NY Jets
The Jets are coming off their bye week, after dismantling the Dolphins in the country of crooked teeth and wrong way driving. The Redskins are coming off a heart breaking loss to the possibly fraudulent Atlanta Falcons. Both teams have been very stingy defensively; the Jets (2nd) and the Redskins (6th) are playing it pretty tight to the vest.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: Not a Member of The Dollar Shave Club
The Redskins- other than their short week trip up to this same stadium a few weeks ago- have been in virtually every game. Other than that Thursday night loss to the G-Men, they've been tied or held the lead in the fourth quarter of the other four games they've played.

The Jets are pretty one dimensional. Granted, their one dimension is in the form of Chris Ivory, who is posting a league leading 104 yards/game rushing, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is no Broadway Joe. He's 27th in the league in yards passing per (231), and like his counter part Mr. Cousins, tends to throw some picks (7 TDs, 6 INTs). On paper, this game is pretty even. See the QBs, the young coaches, each team's running game, and their before mentioned defenses. The series between these two franchises is 8 wins Washington, 2 wins NY Jets, and the Jets have never beaten the Redskins in the Meadowlands. 23-20 Redskins in OT, ruff-ruff.

Kansas City at Minnesota (-4)
The Chiefs are coming off their second fourth quarter collapse in the last four weeks, which led them to losing their 4th game in a row. To compound this debacle, was the fact that they've also lost Jamal Charles for the year. Rumor has it that Andy Reid is looking into getting gastric bypass surgery that can remove excess horseshit coaching genes/cells, while allowing him to continue pounding cream filled chocolate donuts during film sessions.

Other than their head scratching Week 1 loss to the nubby 49ers, the Purple People Eaters have been pretty solid this season. They took care of business against both Detroit and San Diego, and hung around and covered at Denver prior to going on bye this past weekend. And now they get a team who can't get out of its own way.

The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 overall, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Adrian Peterson's 5.0 yards/per carry, coupled with the Chiefs 27th ranked defense against the pass, should allow for usual game manager Teddy Bridgewater to look like Fran Tarkenton in this one. The Chiefs debacle will continue, and Andy Reid will start hearing the whispers. In between bites of his Philly cheese steak, of course. 31-13 Vikings.

Denver (-4.5) at Cleveland
Josh McCown has been on a bit of a heater lately. He put up 356 yards and 2 touchdowns two weeks ago at San Diego in a tough 3 point loss, and then last week he set a Browns franchise record when he threw for 457 yards in Cleveland's overtime win at Baltimore. Those numbers are all fine and dandy against San Diego's 15th ranked defense and Baltimore's 24th, but McCown will be in all sorts facing Denver's #1 ranked defense this Sunday.

Everyone (including this guy) is just waiting for Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense to explode. Considering their miracle comeback against the Chefs in week 1 was capped off by a defensive fumble return for a touchdown, the Bronocs offense has yet to clip the 30 point mark in any of their first five games. In fact, they're averaging a pedestrian 22 points/per contest.

I think this is the week, tho. McCown is playing over his head, and is due to start playing like Josh McCown, and the Brownies are yielding a league's worst 5.05 yards/per carry, giving up 149 yards/per game on the ground. This should help both a struggling Denver run game, and their senior citizen future HOF quarterback, whose looking for his first big game of the 2015 campaign.

The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October, and have covered 4 straight against the Browns. This might not be a blowout, but I think the Browns will never be in this game. 27-14 Broncos.

Houston (Pick'em) at Jacksonville
Fantasy Owners Will Be Pleased With This Guy on Sunday
The Texans are not very good. And you should never bet on not very good teams on the road, especially when they're close to almost laying points. But I'm laying out a caveat here, as the Texans will turn to who I think is a better than average Quarterback in Brian Hoyer, and they'll have Arian Foster back for the second consecutive week. And I think this is a HUGE under the radar element of this game.

For one, Brian Hoyer moves the ball. He did so when in Cleveland, and if not for some homeless guy who told the Browns' owner who to draft, Hoyer would still be in Cleveland and would be starting. And Foster is just a horse. He lines up as a back, he lines up in the slot, he's literally all over the field when the Texans are on offense, and he's hard to defend.

The Jags are giving up 29 points/per game, second worst in the league only to Tampa's 29.6. This, coupled with their below average overall defense (19th), will yield yards and points to a Houston team, who has yo-yo'ed between Ryan Mallett and Hoyer, putting up over 300 yards/game in the air (4th overall in the entire league). The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 match ups between these two. Maybe the worst game on the card this weekend, from a fan's/viewing point of view, but I don't discriminate against pigs when it comes to big fat ATS winners. 24-20 Texans.

Carolina at Seattle (-7)
I like betting on teams the week after heartbreaking, sometimes meltdown losses. Unless, of course, they're named the Kansas City Chiefs. I'm not sure what happened to the Seahawks last weekend in Cincinnati during the 4th quarter, but it kept my Week 5 record blemish free (got the push), and it will provide the fire that lights their asses this weekend.

Carolina is the same Carolina team that they've been for the last few years. Good, but not great. And Newton is a good game manager, whose stats reflect as much. So when it comes to big boy games, they fold like cheap suits (See the Panthers, last year in the playoffs at Seattle). I realize that you can only play your schedule, but the Panthers 4-0 record is a bit deceiving. None of their first four opponents have winning records, and they were one play away from a home loss against 2-4 New Orleans. (Yes, the Seahawks were one play away from losing to (at the time) 0-3 Detroit, but don't let this fact get in the way of my argument. Spoken like a true liberal, right?)

Give me the Seattle home field advantage, mix in the league's #1 ranked rushing offense (142 yards/per game), and complete that trifecta with Seattle's Top 5 ranked defense. Generally speaking, that's a recipe for an ATS winner. Carolina is 1-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the S'Hawks. 23-10 Seahawks. 

Last Week                   4-0-1 ATS
YTD                         15-9-1 ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 10-15-2015**Follow this blog on Twitter, @sportsyack

Thursday, October 8, 2015

NFL Week 5: Keeping It North of The Mendoza Line

Seattle at Cincinnati (-3)
The Bengals, at home, are Scoring TDs on 75% of Their Red Zone Opps.
The Bungholes' offense is only second to Tom Brady's New England Patriots Juggernaut. They're scoring over 30 points/per game, while gaining 422 yards/per game. The Seahawks are below average (19th) offensively, and have not been all that impressive in their 2-2 start. In fact, they're a blown call/Calvin Johnson fumble away from being 1-3, coming off a home loss to team who was 0-3 going in.

The Seahawks do have some issues, especially on their offensive line. But they're still the defending NFC Champions, and as Calvin Johnson could tell you, they have their "Captain" Kam Chancellor back. I just don't like them in this spot, outside of their friendly confines, on a short week with travel.

The Seahawks are not the same team outside of Seattle. Even last year during their NFC title run, they were just 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS. This year they have yet to win or cover when on the road, and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

That ginger, Andy Dalton, has thrown 10 TDs to 3 PICKs, while sporting a 106.4 QB rating. And while Dalton and the Bungholes' offense is in high gear, don't sleep on their defense. They're allowing just 19 points per, and they're top 5 against the run. There is a bit of a leap of faith here in betting on Dalton and Marvin Lewis in their first big game of the year, but I'm ready for my Bunghole Baptismal. 27-17 Bengals.

New Orleans at Philadelphia (-4.5)
There are games on the docket that come up from time to time, where circumstances from the past game or two will prevent a bettor from even considering a team, and the next thing you know that team wins in an absolute boat race. Well, this is one of those games.

Remember when the Eagles were predicted to win 10 games or more, on their way to winning the NFC East? Four weeks in they're 1-3, and Chip Kelly's head is on a platter on Howard Eskin's dinner table. Pump the brakes, MMQBs. This is a game where Chip Kelly and Sam Bradford get healthy.

Its not like the Eagles are getting blowed out, Emmitt. They spotted the Falcons a 20-3 halftime lead in week 1, and then stormed back before losing 26-24. Week 2 was a head scratching disaster, no doubt. Sam Bradford looked completely lost, and they failed to beat a Dallas team who ended up having Brandon "Jerry Jones' boy" Weeden under center for the entire second half. But they then turned around and beat what appears to be a better than average Jets team, on the road. And they were a Kirk Cousins' 90 yard game winning drive (and a missed FG and extra point miss) away from beating divisional foe Washington on the road last weekend.

I've never been a fan of Brees and the Saints outside of the Superdome (0-2 this year, 4-6 SU since 2014). And they're on the road against a defense whose only rushing TD allowed was by the before mentioned Cousins, on a play in which Cousins fumbled (if you didn't see the play, don't ask me to explain). Sam Bradford might've found his why in the second half last week (3 TDs thrown). Expect Howard Eskin to be eating humble pie for dessert, specially prepared by Chip "The Help" Kelly. 34-17 Eagles.

Chicago (+9) at Kansas City
The 1-3 Chiefs Have Andy Reid Binge Eating Humble Pie
This line is fishy, as I think the Chiefs should only be about a 6.5 point favorite here. So I apologize in advance if this game sh*ts all over itself. But here's the deal, some of which I've mentioned in prior posts. The Bears aren't nearly as bad as their 1-3 record. They started the season on murderer's row, and got right last week (as one of my winning barking dogs, no less) with their home, underdog win against the upstart Raiders.

Both of these teams' defenses are not very good. In fact, they're both giving up a league worst 31.3 points/per game- reason #1 I'm taking the points here. Secondly, the Chiefs have given up a league worst 18 sacks- reason #2 I'm taking the points here. And lastly, Jay Cutler is back under center for da Bears, and he should be able to score points vs a Chiefs defense that is yielding 296 yards/per game thru the air (28th)- reason #3 I'm taking the points here.

Alex Smith, when not getting up off the ground to dust himself off, is Alex Smithing his away along thru the first month. He's middle of the pack in both completion percentage (65%) and Quarterback rating (89.2) while only throwing 4 TDs thru 4 games. I think there is a ton of value in taking the points here, and I'd even consider a small money line play. 24-21 Bears, ruff-ruff!

Denver (-4.5) at Oakland
Peyton Manning and the Broncos were a late Peyton Manning INT last week from allowing yours truly from going an impressive 4-1 against the number. The big difference this week, is that Manning won't be facing the Vikings' pass defense again (a respectable 12th), and he will be facing the Rai-duzz pass defense (a not so respectable 31st).

Also, can we take a look at recent match ups between these two teams? Lets just say, Eli's older brother is in licking his chops mode when these two AFC West teams tee it up versus one another.

In his last 4 games vs the Silver and Black, Manning has thrown 12 TDs to just 2 INTs. And the Broncos have covered their last 4 in Oakland, and are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 vs Oakland overall. Throw in the fact that Denver thru 4 games is sporting the league's best defense, and the before mentioned upstart Rai-duzz will get a much needed dose of reality this Sunday. 37-17 Broncos.

San Francisco (+7) at NY Giants
Nice Body, but He's No Russell Wilson
Can the 49ers actually be this bad? Can Colin Kaepernick start looking like the old Colin Kaepernick and less like Colin Cowherd? The answers are "no" and "yes", and I'm praying the answers are in that order.

After winning their week 1 contest against Minnesota, and yielding just 3 points to the Purple People Eaters, the Niners then got absolutely pummeled on the road in back to back weeks. Big Ben and Big Hair, Big Ass, Big Truck Nation hung 43 on them, and then Carson Palmer and the Cardinals hung 47 on them the very next week. If you give up 90 points over the course of two weeks, and you're not playing in the Big 12, you might want to check yourself.

However, they contained Aaron Rodgers and the Pack to just 17 points last week, even after Kapernick's on the field performance was highlighted by the Packers' Clay Matthews reminding him of who he is not. Unbelievably enough, the Niners have only scored one touchdown on their last 23 drives, and that was a 19 yard drive. Yikes...what the f**k am I thinking on this game????

Here's the deal- for the most part- I hate this week's card of NFL games. Yeah, I waited until the very last paragraph of this week's post to tell you poor bastards. Sorry. Predicting NFL games is tough enough as it is, and this week's games, in my opinion, highlight that fact. I just think this is one of those games where everyone sees the Giants as a stone cold lock, at home on Sunday Night Football who has righted their ship, and I think Kaepernick and the Niners pride it up and somehow stick around. Is there a trend that caters to gut feelings? Cause that's all I got here. 23-19 Giants.

Last Week            3-2   ATS
YTD                   11-9  ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 10/8/2015**Follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

Friday, October 2, 2015

NFL Week 4: Death, Taxes, Matt Williams Getting Fired, ATS Winners

Zero Picks For This Guy Thru 3 Weeks
NY Giants (+5) at Buffalo
The Bills are on a major heater, and Tyrod Taylor looks like the second coming of Jim Kelly. After going down to Miami and spanking a fraudulent Dolphins team, the Billies return to the friendly confines of whatever stadium they play in, sporting a 2-1 record while averaging 33 points/game.

Pump the brakes, Buffalo fan.You're about 2 seconds away from going all Thurman Thomas on us and forgetting where you left your helmet. The Giants are the best 1-2 team in football (besides the Colts, Chiefs, Eagles, and Seahawks....), and they're on 10 days rest.

We can play the could've, should've, would've game until the cows come home, so I'll moooo-ve along quickly with my "the Giants could be 3-0" point. But the facts are, that they could be. And I do think this Buffalo Bills buzz saw is going to (in the least) slow down some.

The Giants are not too shabby offensively either, averaging 26 points/per in their three games played. They're also 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 on artificial turf. I don't like Buffalo in this spot, off their huge divisional road win, but I do LOVE the G-Men and Red Faced Coughlin, with the extra days to prepare. Consider the money line. 26-21 Giants. 

Oakland at Chicago (+3)
As with the Buffalo train, I'm going to play the Bears here in a spot in which the Silver and Black Nation will need to pump the brakes for a minute, and reflect on who they really are. Yes, they might've found a quarterback in Derek Carr, and Amari Cooper might be the next great wide receiver, but they're not traveling (essentially) across country for the second consecutive week and winning again. It ain't happening, Bevis.

Chicago has had a BRU-tal start to the 2015 campaign, in terms of their first three opponents. In order, they've played Green Bay (most likely NFC Championship game participant), Arizona (also, most likely NFC Championship game participant), and Seattle (last year's NFC Champions, in a building in which most visitors don't walk away victorious). Even Washington Nationals' soon to be ex-closer, Jonathan Papelbon- from the top two steps- said, "that's a tough f**king first few weeks to start a season, man. Now lets go kick some puppies for the f**k of it...."

Matt Forte is looking for a payday at the end of this year, and has not much to show for it so far this season. And Tight End Martellus Bennett is going to break out this week, so be sure to play him in all your Fan Duel and Draft Kings leagues (You've heard of these websites, right?). I think the travel will catch up to the Rai-duzz, and I expect their DFL ranked defense catches up with them here as well. 27-20 Chicago.

Houston at Atlanta (-6)
Is A "Matty Ice" Tattoo In This Guy's Future?
Kyle Shanahan made RG3 the rookie of the year in 2012, I think time has essentially proven that point. The guy gets tagged with the nepotism label probably a little too much, as he's created a pretty impressive resume of his own. And what he inherited in Atlanta with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and others, most likely has Kyle walking around like a kid in a candy store.

Thru three weeks in the 2015 campaign, Shanahan's offense in Atlanta is scorching hot. They're 3rd overall, putting up over 400 yards/game of total offense and almost 30 points per/game. And they're back home following two impressive road wins vs better than average NFC East teams.

Houston, in my opinion, is teetering on just God awful. They got off the 'L' train last week in ugly fashion, after dropping games to both KC and Carolina. They were fortunate to get out of last week's game with the 'W', after Tampa's soon to be unemployed kicker missed 3 field goals. Ryan Mallett is awful, and Arian Foster is still injured. (early reports are that he will NOT play this Sunday)

The Falcons are a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS. Houston is averaging a putrid 18 points per/game, and they don't have anything close to the fire power that Atlanta does. Beat Down City, USA. 34-13 Falcons.

Minnesota at Denver (-6.5)
The Broncos enter this contest sporting the league's #1 defense, coming back home after two big road wins. The Vikings enter this contest having won their last two games, both at home, after opening the season losing to what appears to be a horrible San Francisco team.

Adrian Peterson is averaging almost 5 yards/carry, while the Broncos defense is only allowing 3.5 yards/carry. Something has got to give, and in this game, it will be the Broncos defense honing in on AP and making Teddy Bridgewater duel with Peyton Manning. Call me crazy, but I like the "less than 7" value in this situation.

The Broncos defense is 2nd in the league in sacks (11), and they've forced the 2nd most turnovers (10)Under Mike Zimmer, the Vikings are 2-7 SU on the road, and neither of their road wins were against teams with winning records. Manning hasn't been lights out thru 3 weeks, but will likely start heating up, as Denver is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 October tilts. 33-13 Broncos. 

Cleveland at San Diego (-7.5)
I like this game primarily because of the flaws I'm seeing in Cleveland, versus anything substantial I'm seeing out of the Bolts. The Browns seem to have some real issues. They fired their offensive line coach, after he allegedly assaulted a woman. And there seems to already be some discontent in the Browns locker room over who should be under center.

A TMZ report this week claimed 3 Browns Offensive players are dissatisfied with 36 year old, stop gap Quarterback Josh McCown, and would prefer the Browns jump all in on starting 2nd year, part time knucklehead, Johnny Manziel. McCown (0-2 as their starter), who is also nursing a hand injury, is scheduled to start again in sunny and 72 SoCal.

I'm bucking some pretty strong trends here, as the Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a losing record, and the underdog in this series is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. I just think Phillip Rivers and the Bolts get healthy in this spot, versus a team with both internal and external problems. 30-20 Bolts.

Last Week           3-2 ATS
YTD                   8-7 ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 10/1/2015**Follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

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