Friday, October 2, 2015

NFL Week 4: Death, Taxes, Matt Williams Getting Fired, ATS Winners

Zero Picks For This Guy Thru 3 Weeks
NY Giants (+5) at Buffalo
The Bills are on a major heater, and Tyrod Taylor looks like the second coming of Jim Kelly. After going down to Miami and spanking a fraudulent Dolphins team, the Billies return to the friendly confines of whatever stadium they play in, sporting a 2-1 record while averaging 33 points/game.

Pump the brakes, Buffalo fan.You're about 2 seconds away from going all Thurman Thomas on us and forgetting where you left your helmet. The Giants are the best 1-2 team in football (besides the Colts, Chiefs, Eagles, and Seahawks....), and they're on 10 days rest.

We can play the could've, should've, would've game until the cows come home, so I'll moooo-ve along quickly with my "the Giants could be 3-0" point. But the facts are, that they could be. And I do think this Buffalo Bills buzz saw is going to (in the least) slow down some.

The Giants are not too shabby offensively either, averaging 26 points/per in their three games played. They're also 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 on artificial turf. I don't like Buffalo in this spot, off their huge divisional road win, but I do LOVE the G-Men and Red Faced Coughlin, with the extra days to prepare. Consider the money line. 26-21 Giants. 

Oakland at Chicago (+3)
As with the Buffalo train, I'm going to play the Bears here in a spot in which the Silver and Black Nation will need to pump the brakes for a minute, and reflect on who they really are. Yes, they might've found a quarterback in Derek Carr, and Amari Cooper might be the next great wide receiver, but they're not traveling (essentially) across country for the second consecutive week and winning again. It ain't happening, Bevis.

Chicago has had a BRU-tal start to the 2015 campaign, in terms of their first three opponents. In order, they've played Green Bay (most likely NFC Championship game participant), Arizona (also, most likely NFC Championship game participant), and Seattle (last year's NFC Champions, in a building in which most visitors don't walk away victorious). Even Washington Nationals' soon to be ex-closer, Jonathan Papelbon- from the top two steps- said, "that's a tough f**king first few weeks to start a season, man. Now lets go kick some puppies for the f**k of it...."

Matt Forte is looking for a payday at the end of this year, and has not much to show for it so far this season. And Tight End Martellus Bennett is going to break out this week, so be sure to play him in all your Fan Duel and Draft Kings leagues (You've heard of these websites, right?). I think the travel will catch up to the Rai-duzz, and I expect their DFL ranked defense catches up with them here as well. 27-20 Chicago.

Houston at Atlanta (-6)
Is A "Matty Ice" Tattoo In This Guy's Future?
Kyle Shanahan made RG3 the rookie of the year in 2012, I think time has essentially proven that point. The guy gets tagged with the nepotism label probably a little too much, as he's created a pretty impressive resume of his own. And what he inherited in Atlanta with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and others, most likely has Kyle walking around like a kid in a candy store.

Thru three weeks in the 2015 campaign, Shanahan's offense in Atlanta is scorching hot. They're 3rd overall, putting up over 400 yards/game of total offense and almost 30 points per/game. And they're back home following two impressive road wins vs better than average NFC East teams.

Houston, in my opinion, is teetering on just God awful. They got off the 'L' train last week in ugly fashion, after dropping games to both KC and Carolina. They were fortunate to get out of last week's game with the 'W', after Tampa's soon to be unemployed kicker missed 3 field goals. Ryan Mallett is awful, and Arian Foster is still injured. (early reports are that he will NOT play this Sunday)

The Falcons are a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS. Houston is averaging a putrid 18 points per/game, and they don't have anything close to the fire power that Atlanta does. Beat Down City, USA. 34-13 Falcons.

Minnesota at Denver (-6.5)
The Broncos enter this contest sporting the league's #1 defense, coming back home after two big road wins. The Vikings enter this contest having won their last two games, both at home, after opening the season losing to what appears to be a horrible San Francisco team.

Adrian Peterson is averaging almost 5 yards/carry, while the Broncos defense is only allowing 3.5 yards/carry. Something has got to give, and in this game, it will be the Broncos defense honing in on AP and making Teddy Bridgewater duel with Peyton Manning. Call me crazy, but I like the "less than 7" value in this situation.

The Broncos defense is 2nd in the league in sacks (11), and they've forced the 2nd most turnovers (10)Under Mike Zimmer, the Vikings are 2-7 SU on the road, and neither of their road wins were against teams with winning records. Manning hasn't been lights out thru 3 weeks, but will likely start heating up, as Denver is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 October tilts. 33-13 Broncos. 

Cleveland at San Diego (-7.5)
I like this game primarily because of the flaws I'm seeing in Cleveland, versus anything substantial I'm seeing out of the Bolts. The Browns seem to have some real issues. They fired their offensive line coach, after he allegedly assaulted a woman. And there seems to already be some discontent in the Browns locker room over who should be under center.

A TMZ report this week claimed 3 Browns Offensive players are dissatisfied with 36 year old, stop gap Quarterback Josh McCown, and would prefer the Browns jump all in on starting 2nd year, part time knucklehead, Johnny Manziel. McCown (0-2 as their starter), who is also nursing a hand injury, is scheduled to start again in sunny and 72 SoCal.

I'm bucking some pretty strong trends here, as the Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a losing record, and the underdog in this series is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. I just think Phillip Rivers and the Bolts get healthy in this spot, versus a team with both internal and external problems. 30-20 Bolts.

Last Week           3-2 ATS
YTD                   8-7 ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 10/1/2015**Follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

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