Thursday, October 8, 2015

NFL Week 5: Keeping It North of The Mendoza Line

Seattle at Cincinnati (-3)
The Bengals, at home, are Scoring TDs on 75% of Their Red Zone Opps.
The Bungholes' offense is only second to Tom Brady's New England Patriots Juggernaut. They're scoring over 30 points/per game, while gaining 422 yards/per game. The Seahawks are below average (19th) offensively, and have not been all that impressive in their 2-2 start. In fact, they're a blown call/Calvin Johnson fumble away from being 1-3, coming off a home loss to team who was 0-3 going in.

The Seahawks do have some issues, especially on their offensive line. But they're still the defending NFC Champions, and as Calvin Johnson could tell you, they have their "Captain" Kam Chancellor back. I just don't like them in this spot, outside of their friendly confines, on a short week with travel.

The Seahawks are not the same team outside of Seattle. Even last year during their NFC title run, they were just 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS. This year they have yet to win or cover when on the road, and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

That ginger, Andy Dalton, has thrown 10 TDs to 3 PICKs, while sporting a 106.4 QB rating. And while Dalton and the Bungholes' offense is in high gear, don't sleep on their defense. They're allowing just 19 points per, and they're top 5 against the run. There is a bit of a leap of faith here in betting on Dalton and Marvin Lewis in their first big game of the year, but I'm ready for my Bunghole Baptismal. 27-17 Bengals.

New Orleans at Philadelphia (-4.5)
There are games on the docket that come up from time to time, where circumstances from the past game or two will prevent a bettor from even considering a team, and the next thing you know that team wins in an absolute boat race. Well, this is one of those games.

Remember when the Eagles were predicted to win 10 games or more, on their way to winning the NFC East? Four weeks in they're 1-3, and Chip Kelly's head is on a platter on Howard Eskin's dinner table. Pump the brakes, MMQBs. This is a game where Chip Kelly and Sam Bradford get healthy.

Its not like the Eagles are getting blowed out, Emmitt. They spotted the Falcons a 20-3 halftime lead in week 1, and then stormed back before losing 26-24. Week 2 was a head scratching disaster, no doubt. Sam Bradford looked completely lost, and they failed to beat a Dallas team who ended up having Brandon "Jerry Jones' boy" Weeden under center for the entire second half. But they then turned around and beat what appears to be a better than average Jets team, on the road. And they were a Kirk Cousins' 90 yard game winning drive (and a missed FG and extra point miss) away from beating divisional foe Washington on the road last weekend.

I've never been a fan of Brees and the Saints outside of the Superdome (0-2 this year, 4-6 SU since 2014). And they're on the road against a defense whose only rushing TD allowed was by the before mentioned Cousins, on a play in which Cousins fumbled (if you didn't see the play, don't ask me to explain). Sam Bradford might've found his why in the second half last week (3 TDs thrown). Expect Howard Eskin to be eating humble pie for dessert, specially prepared by Chip "The Help" Kelly. 34-17 Eagles.

Chicago (+9) at Kansas City
The 1-3 Chiefs Have Andy Reid Binge Eating Humble Pie
This line is fishy, as I think the Chiefs should only be about a 6.5 point favorite here. So I apologize in advance if this game sh*ts all over itself. But here's the deal, some of which I've mentioned in prior posts. The Bears aren't nearly as bad as their 1-3 record. They started the season on murderer's row, and got right last week (as one of my winning barking dogs, no less) with their home, underdog win against the upstart Raiders.

Both of these teams' defenses are not very good. In fact, they're both giving up a league worst 31.3 points/per game- reason #1 I'm taking the points here. Secondly, the Chiefs have given up a league worst 18 sacks- reason #2 I'm taking the points here. And lastly, Jay Cutler is back under center for da Bears, and he should be able to score points vs a Chiefs defense that is yielding 296 yards/per game thru the air (28th)- reason #3 I'm taking the points here.

Alex Smith, when not getting up off the ground to dust himself off, is Alex Smithing his away along thru the first month. He's middle of the pack in both completion percentage (65%) and Quarterback rating (89.2) while only throwing 4 TDs thru 4 games. I think there is a ton of value in taking the points here, and I'd even consider a small money line play. 24-21 Bears, ruff-ruff!

Denver (-4.5) at Oakland
Peyton Manning and the Broncos were a late Peyton Manning INT last week from allowing yours truly from going an impressive 4-1 against the number. The big difference this week, is that Manning won't be facing the Vikings' pass defense again (a respectable 12th), and he will be facing the Rai-duzz pass defense (a not so respectable 31st).

Also, can we take a look at recent match ups between these two teams? Lets just say, Eli's older brother is in licking his chops mode when these two AFC West teams tee it up versus one another.

In his last 4 games vs the Silver and Black, Manning has thrown 12 TDs to just 2 INTs. And the Broncos have covered their last 4 in Oakland, and are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 vs Oakland overall. Throw in the fact that Denver thru 4 games is sporting the league's best defense, and the before mentioned upstart Rai-duzz will get a much needed dose of reality this Sunday. 37-17 Broncos.

San Francisco (+7) at NY Giants
Nice Body, but He's No Russell Wilson
Can the 49ers actually be this bad? Can Colin Kaepernick start looking like the old Colin Kaepernick and less like Colin Cowherd? The answers are "no" and "yes", and I'm praying the answers are in that order.

After winning their week 1 contest against Minnesota, and yielding just 3 points to the Purple People Eaters, the Niners then got absolutely pummeled on the road in back to back weeks. Big Ben and Big Hair, Big Ass, Big Truck Nation hung 43 on them, and then Carson Palmer and the Cardinals hung 47 on them the very next week. If you give up 90 points over the course of two weeks, and you're not playing in the Big 12, you might want to check yourself.

However, they contained Aaron Rodgers and the Pack to just 17 points last week, even after Kapernick's on the field performance was highlighted by the Packers' Clay Matthews reminding him of who he is not. Unbelievably enough, the Niners have only scored one touchdown on their last 23 drives, and that was a 19 yard drive. Yikes...what the f**k am I thinking on this game????

Here's the deal- for the most part- I hate this week's card of NFL games. Yeah, I waited until the very last paragraph of this week's post to tell you poor bastards. Sorry. Predicting NFL games is tough enough as it is, and this week's games, in my opinion, highlight that fact. I just think this is one of those games where everyone sees the Giants as a stone cold lock, at home on Sunday Night Football who has righted their ship, and I think Kaepernick and the Niners pride it up and somehow stick around. Is there a trend that caters to gut feelings? Cause that's all I got here. 23-19 Giants.

Last Week            3-2   ATS
YTD                   11-9  ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 10/8/2015**Follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

No comments:

Post a Comment

Rich Turpin's Very Super Forecast: The 2017 Washington Redskins

By. Rich Turpin Week 1, Philadelphia "Let me fleece Mr. Snyder first, and then I'll see you in 2018!" The Redskins op...