Saturday, October 24, 2015

NFL Week 7: A Symphony of ATS Winners

Our first pick for Week 7 was San Francisco (+6.5), a big fat loser in the Thursday night game. This loss will be reflected in next week's results.

Expect Nick Foles To Be Sweeeet This Weekend
Cleveland at St. Louis (-5.5)
The Rams are coming off their bye. The Browns are coming off a heartbreaking home loss against Peyton Manning and a Broncos offense that continues to let inferior teams stick around. At some point, the porous Browns defense against the run (a league worst 149 yards/game) is going be the straw that breaks the camel's back. And the Rams, who have gone for 164 and 191 on the ground in their last two tilts, will be that straw this Sunday.

Josh McCown has looked pretty good over the last month, but was just average this past weekend (50% comp/2 INTs) against Denver's top defense. St. Louis' defense enters the contest 10th overall, and will help Jeff Fisher and the Rams cover their 4th straight game coming off their bye week. Blowout alert, Nancy Allen. 37-13 Rams.

Atlanta (-4.5) at Tennessee
Speaking of running the ball (and not being able to run the ball), the numbers in this one are UG-UG-ly for the Titans. Atlanta is the stingiest in the league, yielding a league best 78 yards/game on the ground, while the Titans are 28th giving up almost 130. And the Falcons, besides spreading the field with the likes of Jones, White, and Hankerson- can run the ball. Devonta Freeman is an absolutely beast, picking up almost 5 yards/carry, and as a team they're 4th best in the league at a 130 yard/game pace.

Tennessee is middle of the pack (16th) when it comes to running the ball, but I'd expect them to have problems up against the league's best front 7 against the run, with a rookie QB who is apparently hobbling and might not even play. Throw out Atlanta's short week loss at New Orleans, and the Falcons are averaging 32 points/per game. I like those numbers, and I like the Falcons on 10 days rest coming into this one laying a smallish number. Tennessee is 0-6-2 ATS following a SU loss in which they yielded 30 points or more. 34-19 Falcons. 

Houston (+4) at Miami
I Have This Fat Head On The Ceiling Above My Bed
The Texans were poo-poo the first month of the season, but as I've mentioned in prior posts, that was with the God awful Ryan Mallette as starting quarterback. But he's no longer under center and they are a completely different team with Brian Hoyer at the helm, and of course, with a healthy Arian Foster (see last week).

I've never been impressed with Ryan Tannehill. He's near the bottom- league wide, in QB rating (80.1), yards per attempt (6.7), and completion percentage (59.5). And that shouldn't scare a pretty descent Houston defense (11th overall). 

Back to Hoyer. I told you he should still be in Cleveland and would be starting over that midget Manziel if he was. Hoyer throws the ball downfield (8.19 yard/per attempt), he's completing almost 65% of his passes, and his TD to INT ratio isn't Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck- cough,cough- but its still pretty damn good, 8-2. Hop on the Houston ATS train now, people. The right guy is under center, and they're about to start their AFC South divisional run. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two. Ruff-ruff, beeeotches. 28-24 Texans.

NY Football Jets (+9) at New England
Not rocket science in this one. The Jets run the ball well (1st), defend the ball well (1st), and maybe surprisingly to the uninformed, the Patriots haven't exactly beat the dog piss out of the Jets over the last couple years. In fact, the margin of victory between these two over their last four tilts (Jets 1-3 SU, 4-0 ATS) were 1,2,3, and 3.

Last week in a possible look ahead frame of mind, the Jets yielded a 13-10 halftime deficit to the battered Washington Red Clouds. But unlike Jay Gruden's halftime frat party, or whatever is going on during that 15 minutes, Todd Bowles and company made adjustments, and came out and pummeled Kurt Cousins and crew. The Jets front 7 is dominating, and they have two of the best corners in football. Look for New York to exploit New England's 22nd ranked run defense, with a lot of Chris Ivory (115 yards/per game, 5.5 yards/per carry).

I gave you a 9 point dog SU winner two weeks ago with Chicago at Kansas City (humble brag). The Jets have covered 7 straight vs the AFC.  Pound the Jets with the points, and consider a M/L play here too. "I love this game, Skippy!" 27-24 Jets, ruff-ruff. 

Last Week            2-3 ATS
YTD              17-12-1 ATS

*The Yack is in 339th place out of 1,700+, 7 points behind the leader*

*lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 10-22-2015* Follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

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