Thursday, October 29, 2015

NFL Week 8: "Heeeeeeeere's, Winners!"

Miami at New England (-8)
Its been a tough go of it for 'The Yack' on our attempt to secure a W in the Thursday night tilt (0-2 ATS) this season. But I can't turn this offer down, and I hope the only aspect of the "Things Happen in Threes" Rule here, are the number of pickles Ryan Tannehill throws Thursday night in Foxboro.

Please excuse me while I vomit after hearing another talking head tell me about the Culture Change that has happened in Miami since that Meathead Dan Campbell took over the helm. The Dolphins beat a horseshit Tennessee team, and an even horseshittier team in the Houston Texans (disregard my advice last week, to hop on the Texans ATS bandwagon.....sorry.....).

Tannehill and the Dolphins had the benefit of very poor tackling (three of Tannehill's TD completions included 40+ yards YAC), an 85 yard touchdown scamper by Lamar Miller, and a pick six by Miami's defense. By the end of the first half (41-0 Miami), I was wondering if the Sunday morning report was really meant to read, "Houston's entire team misses the team flight to Miami."

The Fins are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC East, and they've failed to cover 6 straight in Foxboro. As far as handicapping goes, you should always lay heavy 'capping consideration with regard to the Head Coach/QB matchup. Hoodie/Pretty boy (greater than) Meathead/Tanneshill. 33-17 Patriots. 

Detroit (+5) at Kansas City
Two more huuuuurting teams make the trip across the pond to visit our former tax collectors in London. And if Roger Goodell and the NFL continue scheduling these types of games overseas, "horseshit NFL matchups" are going to become more common in England than yellow, crooked teeth.

Yeah, I really don't care if the Lions just fired half their coaching staff. It actually might be a good thing (see Miami's last two games vs bad teams following a coaching change). Alls I know is that the Kansas City Chefs are not very good, and regardless of how bad you may think the Lions are, neither one of these losers should be laying more than a field goal.

Andy Reid's Chefs are yielding 368 yards/per game (20th) and almost 25 points/per game (18th). They're also 25th in the league in passing yards allowed, which is a stat that a gun slinger like Matthew Stafford can exploit (can I use the term "gun slinger", MSNBC? If not, please send all complaints to The Chefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 overall. Its a last minute field goal game either way. I'll throw my boy @cublion a bone here, to help erase the misery of the Cubs sweep. 24-21 Lions.

NY Giants at New Orleans (-3)
Ride the heater, Saint fan. After the former bag wearers dropped their first three games of the 2015 campaign (two of which were to future playoff participants Arizona and Carolina), the Pope's favorite team has rattled off 3 wins in their last 4 contests. And I like them in this spot, on that heater, laying a smallish number to a team who is doing it with smoke and mirrors.

Congrats to Tom Coughlin and the G-Men. They finally beat the hated Dallas Cowboys after 5 straight losses to their divisional foe. But take a look at that game for a minute, and look at what the Giants are doing, or not doing over their last few. Dallas handed the G-Men 14 of their 27 points off of a pick 6 and a 100 yard kick off return. And the G-Men are getting absolutely gashed by their opponents' run game.

Dallas, unbelievably enough in a loss, had 233 yards on the ground. The week before, the G-Men gave up 158 on the ground to Philly, and the week before that, they gave up 124 to a very bad San Francisco team. And the Saints are running it. They've rushed for 463 yards over their last 4 games (115/per), including 183 on the ground last week at Indy. Consider Mark Ingram in all your Fan Duel and Draft King games.  The G-Men are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 trips to N'Orleans. Who Dat, Who Dat, Who Dat....? Dat's Dem Saints. 29-20 Saints.

Seattle at Dallas (+6)
I'm going back to the "Seattle has some issues, and is NOT the Seattle team from the last few years" card. Although, I picked the wrong week to give up sniffing glue, or to bet against Seattle the Thursday night they visited awful San Francisco, I'm going to focus on the same points when betting against them here.

For starters, I don't think Dallas is nearly as bad. Yes, Romo is out and they're on their second back up Quarterback, but they can still run the ball (7th) and they're better than average on the defensive side of the ball (8th). And I think they're due. Yes, I'm playing the due factor. Dallas has lost 4 straight since Tony Romo went down, but I think they stick around in this spot.

That maniac Greg Hardy will lead a Dallas defense that leads the league in knocking clipboards out of assistant coach's hands, as they face a Seattle offensive line that has allowed their QB to be sacked a league leading 31 times. Expect Dallas to go run heavy, on the heels of the before mentioned 233 yard performance in The Meadowlands. The S'Hawks are just 2-4-1 ATS on the year, and they've lost 3 straight in Dallas. If Matt Cassel doesn't throw pick sixes like its going out of style, Dallas sticks around and this game goes under the posted (41) total. The underdog in this match-up is 7-2 ATS over the last 9 head to heads.  Like Ronnie The Limo Driver says, "Due". 19-17 Seahawks.

Green Bay at Denver (+3)
Peyton Manning continues to shine brighter in his Direct TV and Papa John's commercials, than he does on the football field. Thru 6 games of the 2015 campaign, he's the leader of team who is 6-0, but his stat line reads like Trent Dilfer 2000. He's thrown just 7 TDs to 10 INTs, and his poor play has kept inferior teams around. But coming out of his bye week, I'm giving Quarterback Forehead a chance to resemble something close to what we've seen out of Manning in years past.

If there was ever a value play in ATS betting, this is the game. I get an undefeated team, with the league's #1 defense (allowing the fewest yards AND points per game), as a home dog on National TV, and my Quarterback is Peyton Manning. I've considered the caveat of Aaron Rodgers and his undefeated Packers being the opponent, but seriously, where do I sign up?

Like comparing two thoroughbreds in a Breeder's Cup Stakes Race, lets consider these teams last few opponents. I think its valid to state that Denver has had a tougher last few games against opponents who in the least are surging and/or have been competitive- Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota. The Packers last three contests were against San Diego, St. Louis, and San Francisco. Denver is 5-0 ATS following an ATS loss. Here's to NBC's Michele Tafoya interviewing a victorious Peyton Manning post game, as she tries to not look at that Mikhail Gorbachev on his noggin. 22-20 Broncos. 

Last Week            2-3 ATS
YTD             19-15-1 ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 10-29-2015** Follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

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