Thursday, November 26, 2015

NFL Week 12: Someone, Please...Stop The Pain

Don't Judge Me, I'm Trying My Best Over Here
Its been a brutal two weeks. Actually, its been a brutal three weeks. And to throw an "actually" on top of that, its been a brutal three years. With so much promise for the 2015 campaign, as yours truly was 6 games north of .500 going into the midway part of the season, the month of November has treated me like a baby treats a diaper. And by that, I mean a baby who has just eaten Gerber's new Prunes and Baked Beans Dinner For Toddlers.

3-11-1 ATS for the month, heading into my Tyrptophan coma, has me avoiding The Legend's email ridicule like its going out of style. The only thing that is preventing me from getting a well deserved beat down from the coke bottle wearing, bald headed bastard, is the 2,500 miles or so between Las Vegas and the friendly confines of my abode in Loudoun County.

But like Bluto Blutarsky once said, there is no time for this lying around shit, and "nothing is over until we decide it is!" So The Legend and Dean Wormer can kiss my lily white ass, as I will continue to move onward and upwards towards respectability.

Carolina (+1.5) at Dallas
To quote Jack Torrence from The Shining when Wendy runs down to the hotel bar to tell him that there is a woman in room 237 who tried to strangle Danny, "Are you out of your f**king mind?!?"  So you're telling me I get 10-0 Carolina- a team who has won 14 straight regular season games in a row- against a 3-7 team- Tony Romo or no Tony Romo (I don't care)- and I'm getting points???... So again, Mr. Vegas, I ask you, "Are you out of your f**king mind?!?"....The last (and only) time an NFL team entered Week 11 at 10-0 as a Vegas underdog, was in 1985 when 10-0 Chicago went to Dallas as a road dog. Ron Riveria and the future 1985 Super Bowl Champion Bears emerged from that game as 44-0 winners (thanks, Bleacher Report). Also, Carolina has rushed for 100 yards or more in like a million straight games. Good luck with that, Cowboy fan. 27-21 Panthers.

A-Rod with Title Town's Public Enemy #1 
Chicago at Green Bay (-8.5)
The Packers snapped a three game losing streak last week, with an impressive road win against divisional foe Minnesota. The Packers, seemingly, have righted the ship heading down the stretch of the 2015 campaign, and Aaron Rodgers can get back to banging girlfriend Olivia Munn without much scrutiny from those cheesehead wearing slobs that live in Wisconsin. Da Bears have played descent as of late, and have pretty much kept games close all season long. But they've lost 9 of the last 10 they've played against the Pack, and this is just not the spot for them on a short week, as they've dropped 4 straight games against the number when playing on the day in between Wednesday and Friday. Green Bay gets the Big W and cover, and Olivia gets the Big O later Thursday night. 30-14 Packers.

Miami at NY Jets (-3.5)
After starting off 4-1, the New York Football Jets reversed fortune, and have lost 4 of their last 5. I know the feeling. Word has it that the normally calm, cool, and collected Todd Bowles lost his shit behind closed doors, following last week's loss at Houston. Here is an amazing stat: the road team in this series has won 7 straight. But nevermind that. The Fins have failed to cover 4 straight against the Jets, and their meat head interim coach is no match against Bowles and the Jets (still) Top 5 defense. This is my 10,000 Star Game of The Month, and if it makes you feel any better before you bet the mortgage here, my 10,000 Star Barking Dog of The Month last week was San Diego! 26-20 Jets.

NY Giants at Washington (+3)
"This Is The Finger I Use To Shove Up Washington's Ass."
I'm not sure what the hell is going on with Red Faced Coughlin this season, as some of his in game coaching decisions leave little to be desired. Clock and down management issues all year, and now they're on the road laying points against divisional foe Washington, who are coming off a ream job from the zebras in Carolina. Here's what you need to know: the Redskins are descent at home (4-1), the Giants defense still sucks (31st), and the Giants have beaten Washington 5 straight games (due factor). Interesting note, to put the cherry on top of Jerome Booger Eater and Crew's game changing officiating last week, and to give some merit to Jason Hatcher's post game remarks: this will mark the 4th time in just 11 games, that the Redskins will face a team who is either coming off their Bye or a Thursday Night game (10 days rest). Hummmm....33-21 Redskins.

Pittsburgh at Seattle (-3.5)
The Seahawks are on kind of a mini heater. They've won 3 out of 4, and if not for three blown 4th quarter leads against three very good teams (Arizona, Carolina, and Cincy), they just might be on a 6 game heater. But they're not, and that's fine, but I'll quickly dismiss the "well, who have they beat?" crowd, because its a dumb argument here. Trust me. Seattle takes care of business here against an under the radar average Pittsburgh team, and that midget Russell Wilson has a big day against a Pittsburgh pass Defense that's abysmal. The NFC Wildcard race will officially be "game on" after this Sunday, and Seattle will be right in the mix. 29-17 Seahawks.

Last Week                     0-4-1 ATS
YTD                         25-27-3 ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 11-26-15**Follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

The Legend Chronicles, Part 4: The Yack Has a New Name, According to IHJ (The Legend)

Herewith westgate five numbers…panthers plus 1 ½….packers minus 8 ½….skins plus 3….jets minus 3 ½….seahawks minus 3 ½……

On a side note the following tirade are ihj’s true feelings……


   And I did not misspell ur new name…u sir disgust me……u have recorded a number of 1 ½ out of the last 10 picks…..ur picks are a disgrace……u have proved to indeed be the nephew of the infamous uncle ‘’dummy’’… fact over the past fortnight u have surpassed the ‘’dumb’’ one… ‘’fat’’ terms u are about the XXXL of ur daddy…….the difference is that u can make a comeback by going 25 up and 5 down over the next 30 games…. This wud reclaim ur true name of the ‘’yack’’…whereas ur uncle and ur daddy are stuck forever in their respective ‘’dumbness’’ and fatness’’…..


Sunday, November 15, 2015

NFL Week 10: Let's Fill Our Pockets With a Knot of Dollar Bills

We Will Be Eating All Our Oreo Cookies This Week
I spent a day and a half driving up and back to the JPO at the Borgata, so I don't have much insight-errrrrrr, time to tell my readers why I picked said(s) game. The trip itself, for what its worth, was somewhat successful considering I came back with about what I brought, and I bought in and did not cash in two different poker tournaments.

The Borgata did not disappoint, as usual, with their top of the line rooms, the best poker room in the country- in my humble opinion, and the usual chatter at the table from some random from Staten Island or Cape May, who gives you his insight in his Chris Russo like accent, about why the Mets lost the World Series, or how the Giants can stick around and make it a game this weekend with the Patriots.

In any case, good times.

The Legend and I are batting 56% thru 9 Weeks (24-19-2, 25 points) and its go time. The leader, "rounding again", is an unbelievable 84% (36-7-2, 37 points). There are over 1,700 entrants and only the Top 50 get paid. Realistically, with 8 weeks (40 picks) to go, Yours Truly probably needs to go somewhere in the 29-11 or 30-10 range to have a chance to cash. That would put us at about 65% for the year. First place money this year is estimated to be about $800,000.

Carolina at Tennessee (+5.5)
Marcus Mariota is pretty good for a rookie. And Tennessee's defense is better than advertised. The Panthers aren't one of the teams that will go undefeated, as they won't even represent the NFC in the Super Bowl (see my buddy Tony and I's $1,500 Arizona Cardinals 8/1 futures ticket to win the Super Bowl). Bet 5 units on the Titans getting the points, and bet half of that on the money line. Barking dog, straight up winner. 24-19 Titans, ruff-ruff.

New Orleans (PK) at Washington
Kirk Cousins is having a pretty good rookie season, all things considered. Just ask JP Flaim from the Sports Junkies. But Drew Brees is better, both defenses are suspect, and Sean Payton has access to better prescription drugs than Jay Gruden. Check mark Saints, Larry. 33-24 Saints

Jacksonville (+5.5) at Baltimore
I'm not sure how the Ravens are laying anyone points at this juncture in the season. They're lucky they're not 0-8 thru the halfway point in the season, and they're more beat up than Freddie Gray after a BPD joy ride. This is the easiest game on the board today. Consider borrowing money on top of the money you already have to bet on the Jags here. 27-20 Jags, ruff-ruff.

New England (-7) at New York Giants
Expect Tom Brady to continue his "middle finger tour" (as Mad Dog Radio's Adam Schein calls it), as he rolls into the Meadowlands to face the hated Giants, who statistically have the worst defense in the entire league. The Giants only success has come from their league leading (+11) give away/take away stat. Only problem is, the Patriots don't turn the ball over. Tom Brady might throw for 800 yards today. 47-23 Patriots.

Arizona at Seattle (-3)
This is Seattle's season, in a nutshell, Alice In Chains fan. Lose here to my Cardinals, and you can stick a fork in the Seahawks and their 12th man tree hugger fans. All of Larry's check marks would literally go to Arizona here, but this is just a feeler game for me, based on the before mentioned importance of it. Some dude named Thomas Rawls is going to have himself a game. 20-14 Seahawks.

Last Week               2-3 ATS
YTD                 24-19-2 ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 11-12-15**follow this blog on twitter @sportsyack

Thursday, November 5, 2015

NFL Week 9: Happy Hump Week, Boys and Girls

Oakland at Pittsburgh (-4)
The Big Hairs Start'em Young
When the Raiduzz traveled to Cleveland in Week 3 and emerged with a 27-20 victory, it was their first win in the Eastern Time Zone in 16 tries, a streak that spanned 6 seasons. When the Steelers lost last week in Big Ben's return from injury, it was the first time in 16 games that Heinz Field had more fans in attendance with head lice than with mouth sores.

Big Hair, Big Ass, Big Truck Nation has had a rough go of it with the injury bug. The before mentioned Roethlisberger went down in Week 3 at St. Louis, with an injury that looked like it could've been season ending. Unfortunately for the Big Hairs, last week's injury to Le'Vean Bell was season ending. Fortunately for them, they have a reliable and productive back up in DeAngelo Williams (102 yards/game in Bell's drug suspension absence), who last week picked up 71 yards on just 9 carries after Bell went down.

Props to Oakland. Last week's home win against a good NY Jets team was their "coming out" party of sorts, maybe letting the rest of the league know that they're for real. However, I don't like them based on the travel and their historic lack of success playing on the East Coast, and I don't like them coming off the high of beating the Jets.

Big Ben struggled in his debut last week, throwing 3 picks against undefeated and divisional foe Cincinnati. Expect him to rebound nicely against an Oakland defense that is 31st in the league against the pass. The home team in this series is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 played. Heinz Field and all its fat and ugliness, will not be kind to Derek Carr and the upstart Raiduzz. 26-16 Steelers.

Jacksonville at NY Jets (-6.5)
The 747s enter this contest with a lot of uncertainty at the Quarterback position. Ryan Fitzpatrick tore a ligament in his non throwing thumb, and as of Wednesday, Geno Smith was listed on the NY Jets injury report with "he's Geno Smith". Don't get caught up in the uncertainty of who will be under center for them this Sunday, as I truly believe Joe Namath's formerly alcohol soaked, fatty liver could get the job done in this spot.

The J-Men are coming off a rough two weeks in which they took the undefeated Patriots to the brink, in a game New York should've probably won, and then last week's trip out west to NoCal was an embarrassing display, for a team who had played good, sound football all season up until that point.

The Jets defense is still 3rd overall in yards allowed/per game. And a good defense will go a long way (see last week's Barking Dog winner we gave out with Denver, absolutely shutting down A-Rod and Green Bay), especially versus an offense that has struggled (Jax, 23rd overall).  Expect Chris Ivory to return to form after Oakland shut him down last week, and expect a Jets team to show up who will be looking to shake off last week's humiliation. The Jets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 versus the AFC, and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following an ATS loss. "I wanna kiss you. I couldn't care less about the Jets stru-guh-ling last week." 27-9 Jets.

St. Louis at Minnesota (-1.5)
Expect AP to Punish The Rams Defense on Sunday
If all goes as planned this weekend for the Purple People Eaters, they could be tied for first place in the NFC North by weekend's end; assuming of course, the Carolina Panthers win their 12th consecutive regular season game in a row.

Todd Gurley is definitely a factor in this one, leading the league in both rushing yards per attempt (6.1) and yards per game (115). But the Vikings' run D has saddled up recently against the run, yielding just 93 yards per game over their last 4 games, and Nick Foles and the Rams' air attack (my apologies to the phrase "air attack") has been pathetic... like beyond pathetic. Napoleon Foles has gone 6 straight games in which he has failed to throw for more than 200 yards. Not sweeeeeet.

The Vikings have covered 5 straight following an ATS win. Conversely, the Rams are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 following a SU win. AP has a monster day, and the Vikings lock this up by the start of the 4th quarter. 27-13 Vikings.

NYG at Tampa (+2.5)
Jameis Winston is finding his comfort zone at the NFL level. He hasn't turned the ball over in 4 weeks, and the Bucs are actually playing good, sound football. In fact, if that Three Mile Island type meltdown had not occurred at Fed Ex Field two weeks ago, the Buccos would be riding a 3 game heater.

As a "alcohol swilling and pill popping to cope" Redskins fan, I pay particularly close attention to the NFC East. And I'm here to tell you that the New York Football Giants are not very good. Eli Manning, tho with his two Super Bowl rings, is a capable quarterback and displayed it last week in the shootout with the Saints. But he still does have his Eli moments, and unfortunately for him and Giant Nation, the G-Men's defense is putrid.

In their last 4 games, the Giants have given up at least 27 points per, including last week's 52 point massacre they yielded to Who Dat Nation.  Overall, they're DFL for the season in yards allowed, giving up 427 yards per contest. That will not bode well against a Bucs' offense that has scored at least 23 points in their last 4 games, including 30 and 31 in two of those games.

The Giants are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 following a game in which they allowed 30 points or more, and Tom Coughlin and crew are 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in their last 5 on the back end of consecutive roadies.  Does your man take Lightning Bets? Consider it here. This game is trending towards a Giants' weekend in Beat Down City. 33-19 Bucs.

Philadelphia (--2.5) at Dallas
These two teams like to beat each other up in the other team's building. Over the last three seasons- including Week 2 of this year's campaign- these two teams have exchanged Ws, with the visiting team winning all 5 games played over that span. In fact, the road team in this series, is 7-1 ATS over the last 8.

Dallas has just sucked since Tony Romo went down. They've lost 5 in row since his injury, and have failed to cover the number in 4 of the 5. I think Philadelphia is the best team in just a dreadful division, and this is the week they begin to separate themselves from the sludge of the NFC East.

Considering Dallas has lost 5 in a row, look at what Philly has done over the same span. They went to the Meadowlands and beat an at the time undefeated, and pretty good Jets team, and then they absolutely pummeled the Giants and the Saints. Their only losses were a last minute loss on the road to divisional foe Washington, and last week's loss at undefeated Carolina. All and all, a respectable 5 weeks.

And for an Eagle team that struggled to run the ball earlier in the season, Holy Flucking Schmidt, Batman, for what they've done over the last 3 weeks. 177, 158, and 186 yards are their rushing totals over the past 3 games. That's not a good trend for a Dallas run D that has yielded 100 rushing yards or more 5 weeks in a row. NBC's Al Michaels might be able to speak in code regarding the total (44.5) late in the game, if the circumstances permit, but you won't have to worry about him chiming in on any Eagle bettors getting whored in the last few minutes. 30-17 Eagles. 

Last Week                 3-1-1 ATS
YTD                     22-16-2 ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 11-5-2015**follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

Rich Turpin's Very Super Forecast: The 2017 Washington Redskins

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