Sunday, December 6, 2015

NFL Week 13: Stone (Cold) Temple (Lead Pipe) Pilots (Locks)

Houston at Buffalo (-3.5)
Godspeed, Mr. Weiland
I've not been high on the Texans all year. And although they are riding a 4 game heater, they have some games on their resume this year that are simply head scratching, notably road blowout losses to both garbage Miami and what is proving to be garbage Atlanta.

When handicapping Buffalo this week, and eventually loading up on them like you should, you should relate this to a horse race, Valdez. The Bills are that horse that just ran in two big Stakes races (at New England, at Kansas City), and although they did not prevail, they placed/showed extremely well. And now their trainer is bringing them back down for a $35,000, 6 furlong race at Aqueduct in which they'll be "much the best".

The Bills are back in upstate New York following three straight roadies. And I like them in this spot to keep their Wildcard chances alive. The Foot Lover's Bills are 6-1 ATS following an ATS loss. The Bills defense, who has given up 17 points or less in three of their last four, now faces Brian Hoyer who is averaging a pedestrian 203 yards thru the air over his last 3 starts. Pump the brakes on this "Houston is surging" nonsense. Houston is never in this one. 31-13 Bills.

Seattle at Minnesota (PK)
The Seahawks are not who you think they are. And 2/3 of the way into the season, the loss of defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has finally caught up to them. Their defense has given up over 500 total yards in two of their last three games, and was put on full display in last weekend's up and down the field, "whomever scores last wins" game against equally defensively incompetent, Pittsburgh.

The Vikings, on the other hand, are playing good sound football. They sport a Top 10 defense, and the league's premier (and statistically #1) running back. They've won 6 of their last 7, and following Thursday night's miracle win by the Packers, Minnesota needs to keep the pedal to the metal in the NFC Norris Division. Seattle is a dismal 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win, and 1-5-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record. I honestly think this could be a complete ass kicking, and I'm surprised (since we bet it) the money is moving on Seattle. But WTF do I know? 27-14 Vikings. 

Arizona at St. Louis (+5.5)
Get out your leashes, dog biscuits, poop bags, whatever else it is that goes along with having a happy, healthy (barking) dog, because this dog in St. Louis is going to be barking loudly on Sunday. 9-2 Arizona takes their talents into the Edward Snowden Dome against a Rams team who is on a four game cooler. Hence the week that the Cardinals have a misstep- which they will today and probably one more time down the stretch- and hence a Rams team that is due and who plays their divisional games very tough.

In fact, the Los Angeles Rams are 3-0 against their division this year, including a Week 4 win at Arizona. And the Cardinals aren't exactly blowing people out when they're away from Glendale. In their last 4 roadies, they lost to the Steelers, were dead to rights to Seattle, before winning last minute. They were getting blown out at Cleveland, before racing back in the second half. And then last week they squeaked past dreadful Frisco. That's last week, as in they're now on the back end of back to back roadies (trend drop).  

Try this one on for size;  Jeff "Smoke and Mirrors" Fisher and the Rams are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 at home versus teams with winning records. Pound the Rams getting points, and get down on the money line. 24-20 Rams, ruff-ruff.

Philadelphia at New England (-9.5)
Wow. Talk about a line movement since we bet it. When The Legend rolled down to The Westgate Thursday morning, this line was what I've posted here, (9.5). It's currently (Sunday morning) New England (-7.5). I'm not sure if that's due to the amount of injury that New England is dealing with, but some schmuck(s) from Philly have dropped some serious cash on the 'Gals over the last 48 hours.

Never fear, pissed off, pretty Tom Brady is here. The Pats win this game going away, and will certainly cover 7.5 or 9.5 or 13.5 for that matter. Philly is a mess, their coach is more than halfway out the door, and their team has essentially punted. Their last two games have been an absolute shit show of incompetence and lack of effort. 31 and 28 point losses to garbage Detroit and almost equally garbage Tampa Bay, will have this bettor (me) jumping all in on the Patriots at home, laying less than 10, and coming off a loss. The Patriots might score 50, and I think Cliff Clavin is their starting slot receiver today. 44-14 Patriots.

Dallas (+4.5) at Washington
Don't get caught up in the "but Matt Cassel is their Quarterback" aspect of this game. I couldn't care less. The fact that Dallas- who I do believe has better than average talent on their roster- lost 7 straight games in Tony Romo's absence, is nothing short of an anomaly. Their is a ton of value in this game with the points.

For one, Dallas will be on 11 days rest by the time they tee this one up Monday night, having not played since their Turkey Day loss when Tony Romo went down again. Secondly, the Redskins are awful when playing in Prime Time, just 4-18 since Joe Gibbs 2.0 left. Lastly, Dallas hasn't been awful the last month, even when Cassel was playing.

Throw out the Thanksgiving Day loss;  Romo goes down, and it was undefeated Carolina. Prior to that, a win at Miami, a tough 4 point loss at Tampa, and then consecutive games that Dallas not only could've, but should've won- Seattle and Philly.

The Redskins haven't won consecutive games since Weeks 7 and 8 of last year. They're 3-14 ATS in their last 17 following an ATS cover. This divisional game, against a team who still has some pride left, will not be a walk in the park. My hope, as a fan of the burgundy and gold, is that the rest of the country finds out what the DMV has known for 11 weeks now. That this Dustin Hopkins dude is a pretty damn good kicker. 23-21 Redskins.

Last Week             4-1 ATS
YTD              29-28-3 ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 12-3-2015. Follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack**

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