Monday, December 12, 2016

Go Giants!!!! Go Cowboys!!!!....Did I Just Say That? #RedskinsTalk

By. Mike Baxter, @sportsyack

Another week of NFC games in the books, and yet another week of uncertainty of who might be playing post-season football. But if you follow this feed on Twitter, you would know where I'm going with this. If you're "Redskin Fan", the most threatening team(s) to your playoff chances, other than your own- are the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.

Wait, Yack. What about the Bucs?

Tampa is done, they just don't know it yet. And when they lose two of their last three (at Dallas, at New Orleans, home vs. Carolina), that (9-7) record won't be quite enough to win their division, nor to snag that final Wild Card spot.

The Redskins fate- other than what their bend but sometimes break defense does, or what the Sybil-esque foot of Dustin Hopkins does- will be determined by what the Packers and Lions do over these next three weeks. And while "Redskin Fan" who understands the 2016 NFC playoff picture, has been rooting for the Dallas Cowboys the last few weeks, prepare yourselves to root on the G-Men as well.

Detroit at (9-4), who currently lead their division and whose starting QB apparently dislocated a finger on his throwing hand, finishes at the Giants, at Dallas, and finishes the campaign at HOME against the Packers. And assuming the Redskins win two of their last three (which is no guarantee, obviously- but its what's needed in the least) to finish (9-6-1), the Redskins are also going to need Detroit to lose at least one of the games versus the Giants or Cowboys.

Why's that, Yack?....

...because the Packers (at Chicago, v. Minnesota, at Detroit) could EASILY run the table, including their end of the season showdown at Detroit. And if that happens, Green Bay finishes 10-6. If Detroit beats either the Giants or the Cowboys, and then even if they do lose to Green Bay in that Week 17 showdown, you'd have both the Pack and the Lions finishing with identical 10-6 records.

And if that happens, "Redskin Fan", I don't like "our" chances.

Lots could happen. Maybe Tampa is for real, wins out or goes 2-1 next three weeks. I don't think either of those things happen. Redskins could lose two of three and this is all moot. Maybe they shock this author, and win out. I don't think these scenarios happen either. What I think will happen, is that the Redskins will 100% beat the Chicago Bears in two weeks. And I think they're going to split with Carolina and the NY Giants. And if that happens, Green Bay and Detroit are going to be a huge factor on the Redskins playoff chances, and there will be some serious GB/DET scoreboard watching by "Redskin Fan", on January 1st, 2017.

#GoGiants!   #GoCowboys!

Sunday, August 7, 2016

Voc'e pegou sua oportunidade e partiu no meio

In case anyone gives a flying f**k....

The Legend and I considered all variables of the $4,500 we spent over the last 3 years we entered the Westgate Super Contest, and it became clear to us that we had no f**king chance of ever cashing.

For one, we don't handicap NFL football for a living. The Legend is a late 60s (generous) retired home boy, via Los Angeles, via Northern Virginia when he worked, now (via) living in Las Vegas in his much deserved retirement. Myself, The Yack, am a 40 something business owner, still actively doing business. And neither of us have the sources nor the information that the 2,000+ have, who enter the contest every year.

Google the winners and the people who have cashed the last 5+ years. They're all (mostly) professional handicappers who do this for a living. In other words, we have NFC.

And as fun as it was to present our picks every week, and although I did bat 69% in 2009- tho doing so not having to pick 5 games per week (and not in in that year's contest) as the contest requires- its just not a winning proposition. And in our case, would require one hell of a (lucky) heater.

Think of it like horse betting; you will not win in the long run.

Secondly, I used this forum to promote a podcast I did with my boys Rich and Jabby, which I will also not be doing anymore.

As far as my lack of Twitter activity, I'd finally reached the point my much younger (and smarter) brother reached some 5+ years ago; Twitter is a much needed? distraction, that I felt reached a boiling point with the multiple social media phony causes, and the back and forth over the embarrassing two candidate field that this country produced for this upcoming Presidential election. Noise, noise, and more noise. Most of it lacking the common sense that can actually be productive to improve things. I had had enough....

And the reporting, should be left to those who report for a living, which is something I don't do. And something too many Twitter ass hats (me included) feel like we're doing; we're not, THOM.

I will continue to update my poker experiences on Twitter, under @sportsyack. My next "big" tournament is the first week of November in the PPC Main Event, $2,400 buy-in, which is in Aruba.

Thanks to everyone who ever read this blog, especially the NFL bettors. I enjoyed writing it each and every week, but like all good things....they're still good. Its just over, Johnny.

Piss off, cake.

Monday, June 20, 2016

Rich Turpin's Take On The 2016 Washington Redskins: Its Going To Be a SUPER Season

By. Rich Turpin

This is the 26th annual (or something like that) Spring Redskins season/stats prediction thingy. That special time of the year when I take pen to paper while wearing my burgundy and gold colored glasses. I'm not always correct, but I've accurately predicted the Redskins record in 2 of the past 5 years. So without further adieu, let's get the 2016 season going. As they say, "no pressure, no diamonds."

Week 1: Pittsburgh Steelers
In what could be a potential Super Bowl 51 match-up, the Redskins open the 2016 season by hosting Yack's favorite fan base's team- Big Hair, Big Ass, Big Truck Nation's, Steelers. Unfortunately, there will be a segment of Terrible Towel wavers in the crowd this Monday Night, most of whom have had some kind of relations with a relative. But no worries, Redskin fan. After signing a long term deal in the off season, Quarterback Kirk Cousins opens the season where he left off  in the 2015 season, looking SHARP.

Kirk goes for 303 yards and 3 TDs, including one to first round pick Josh Doctson. The Steelers also have a potent offense, despite not having the services of suspended WR Martavious Bryant. In the end, former Redskins Kicker Shaun Suisham's replacement- Chris Boswell, kicks a last second field goal, to propel the Steelers to a 24-21 opening night win. (0-1)

Week 2: Dallas Cowboys
Coming off a loss, the hated Dallas Cowboys will be just what the doctor ordered. The Redskins offense picks up right where it left off, to the tune of 509 total yards, 358 of it coming from Kirk Cousins' arm. Cousins turns in another masterpiece, tossing 4 TDs to Jordan Reed (2), Josh Doctson, and Desean (OTA-less) Jackson. The defense finally starts to gel, as they sack the brittle Dallas Quarterback 5 times, with Junior Galette having two of them. Also, newly acquired CB Josh Norman picks off one of Tony Romo's many ill advised Romo passes. Jerry Jones' plastic face won't be smiling by game's end. 31-13 Redskins. (1-1)

Week 3: @NY Giants
In their first road contest of the season, the Redskins travel to New Jersey to face the New York Football Giants. In a heated contest between Josh Norman and Odell Beckham, the Redskins (again) get the better of their NFC East rival, securing a 24-20 victory. RB Matt Jones reaches the 100 yard mark for the second straight week, rushing for 130 YDs and a TD. (2-1)

Week 4: Cleveland Browns
At Least His Passes Can Clear the Practice Fence
In a game that many Redskins' fans have marked on their calendar, its a chance to root for their favorite former Redskin, Robert Griffin III. However, RG3 fans don't get their wish, as Griffin returns to Washington picking up right where he left off....on the bench. Having lost the (alleged) starting job in pre-season to rookie QB Cody Kessler, Griffin will spend most of the game thinking up a clever, cryptic Tweet to post following the game. Kessler shows some flashes in his 3rd NFL game, but the Redskins' defense has a field day, registering 3 sacks and 3 INTs. If you're scoring at home: Cousins 289 YDs passing...Griffin, 0. Redskins win, 30-14. (3-1)

Week 5: @Baltimore Ravens
The last time the Redskins and Ravens met, some would say it was the beginning of the end for that "other guy", and the beginning of the story for the "current guy". In a trip up 95, the Redskins march into M and T Bank Stadium to deposit what will turn out to be a thrashing of the NFC North doormats. CB Josh Norman notches his 3rd INT of the season and LBs Junior Galette and Ryan Kerrigan get 2 sacks a piece on the Ravens' less than elite QB, Joe Flacco. Redskins get another 300 yard passing game from Kirk Cousins (307), and "rough ride" Freddie Gray's former favorite team, 29-13. (4-1)

Week 6: Philadelphia Eagles
Six weeks into the season, the Sam Bradford era is over in Philly. Bradford, who will start the first five games for the now 0-5 Eagles, will be pulled by first year coach Doug Pederson, for first year Quarterback Carson Wentz. However, the Redskins #5 ranked defense stymies the rook, as the Eagles offense turns the ball over 6 times, including 3 INTs by Wentz (Breeland, Hall, Kerrigan). Get out your paper bags, you meat heads from South Philly, you're 0-6. Redskins win 27-9. (5-1)

Week 7: @Detroit Lions
The Redskins head to the motor city to face off against the Calvin Johnson-less Detroit Lions. Johnson, who retired in the off season, was sick of drinking the lead based Michigan tap water, and sick of playing on a perennially bad football team. The Lions, whose fruitless attempts to fill Johnson's shoes included signing former Redskin Andre Roberts (excuse me for a minute while I piss my pants laughing), resemble the good old days with Matt Millen as the GM, as the Redskins continue to roll on both sides of the ball. Cousins uses the "fast track" of Ford Field to get his WRs off and running (329 yards) and another 3 TDs. The Redskins' defense causes 2 Detroit turnovers, and holds the Lions to 234 yards of total offense. 34-3, Redskins. (6-1)

Week 8: @Cincinnati Bengals
The NFC East leading Redskins take the show across the pond against Head Coach Jay Gruden's former employer, and the dentist deprived fans in London will be in for a doozy. The Redskins, who will be involved in their closest game since their season opening loss to the Steelers, will win on a Dustin Hopkins last second field goal. Cousins has his worst game of the season, throwing for a pedestrian 209 yards and 2 INTs, but the Redskins defense bails him out with another multiple INT game. 17-14 Redskins. (7-1)

Week 10: Minnesota Vikings
Coming off the trip to London and then their bye week, the Redskins host another surprising team from the 2015 campaign in the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings grabbed Mississippi WR Laquon Treadwell in the first round of the NFL Draft, but Treadwell has struggled behind the weak arm of QB Teddy Bridgewater. The Redskins offense gets back on track in a big way, putting up a season high 45 points in what will be a rout. Kirk Cousins has a career day, throwing for 499 yards and 5 TDs. Redskins win, 45-20. (8-1)

Week 11: Green Bay Packers
In a rematch of the 2015 NFC Divisional Round, the Redskins host an NFC North team for the second straight week. And just like said game last January at Fed Ex Field, the Packers just seem to have the Redskins number. Kirk Cousins does his best RG3 impression by getting sacked 4 times and throwing 2 INTs. But unlike RG3, Cousins will hit the film room after the game and not his Twitter account. The Redskins suffer their 2nd loss of the season, 23-17. (8-2)

Week 12: @Dallas Cowboys
Tony Romo's 2016 Topps Football Card
On the greatest American holiday of the year, the Redskins take the show to Big D. The short week doesn't seem to have a negative effect on the NFC East leaders, as Matt Jones leads the charge with his 130 yards rushing. Kirk Cousins throws 2 TDs, as injured Tony Romo and stretch faced Jerry Jones watch from the sidelines. Dallas is never in the game, as the Redskins prevail 31-20. (9-2)

Week 13: @Arizona Cardinals
Following their Thanksgiving Day victory, the Redskins travel to the desert to face off against the defending NFC West Champs. The Cardinals prove to be too much for the Redskins to overcome, thanks to a goal line fumble from Matt Jones and a potential INT drop from DeAngelo Hall. 23-17 Cardinals. (9-3)

Week 14: @Philadelphia Eagles
A late season trip to Philly has been just what the doctor ordered these past 2 seasons, and 2016 will prove no different. Coming off the loss to the Cardinals, the Redskins jump out to a quick 24-0 lead thanks to TDs from Josh Doctson, Keith Marshall, and Desean Jackson. Colt McCoy gets 4th Quarter "clean up" duties in this one, as the Redskins win in a laugher, 35-12. (10-3)

Week 15: Carolina Panthers
The Redskins host the defending NFC Champs in a rematch of one of their most lopsided losses of 2015. Even though former Panther Josh Norman will have a 3rd Quarter INT against his old team, the Panthers will prevail and prove they still wear the NFC crown. Redskins fall, 21-17. (10-4)

Week 16: @Chicago Bears
The Redskins will wrap up the NFC East for the second time in as many years, with a win in the windy city. The struggling Bears, who will only have 5 wins coming into this contest, will fall 17 points down early, and never really be in the game. Kirk Cousins will throw TDs numbers 31 and 32, and break his own single season passing record of 4,166 yards, finishing with 289 yards and 2 TDs. The Redskins' defense will pick off Jay Cutler twice, in the 30-13 Redskins win. (11-4)

Week 17: NY Giants
Having already wrapped up the division, the Redskins have a chance to secure a first round bye with a win over their division rivals. The one won't come easy, but the Redskins get 122 yards on the ground from Matt Jones, and 2 TD passes from Kirk Cousins, including the game winning toss to Jamison Crowder with :59 seconds left in regulation. Redskins win 23-20. (12-4)


Divisional Round
With a first round bye, the Redskins welcome the winner of the first Wild Card game, the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks have eliminated the Redskins in 3 of their last 4 playoff appearances, including in 2012. History won't repeat itself, as Kirk Cousins tosses 2 TDs and the defense secures a late fumble on a Su'a Cravens' hit on Jimmy Graham, enroute to the Redskins 27-17 win.

NFC Championship
For the first time in over 25 years, the Redskins make an appearance in the NFC Championship Game. Traveling to Carolina, the Redskins look to exact reventge on an early season loss. In true story book fashion, former Panther Josh Norman takes a Cam Newton pass 67 yards to the house for what ends up being the final score of the game. Another great outing for Kirk Cousins, thorwing for 279 yards, 2 TDs and no INTs. In addition to Norman's pick six, the Redskins' defense comes up big all day, sacking the before mentioned Newton 6 times, with Junior Galette having 3 of them. And for the first time since Nirvana's "Nevermind" was a top Billboard's Top 200 Albums Chart, the Redskins advance to Super Bowl LI, beating Carolina 23-19. 

Super Bowl LI
Just as I predicted in Week 1, the potential Super Bowl match up might be playing in that Week 1 Monday Night Football game, and that prediction comes to fruition. Having outlasted the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, the Steelers face off against the Redskins in a game that won't disappoint. With just 2:07 to go in the game, Big Ben connects with Ladarius Green to take the lead, and the Steelers defense will hold, as Redskins K Dustin Hopkins misses a potential game winning 56 yard FG with no time left on the clock. Despite the loss, Kirk Cousins throws for 312 yards and 2 TDs. Pittsburgh picks up their 7th Super Bowl title, and Le'Veon Bell is the game's MVP. 31-29 Steelers.

Season Statistics

Cousins: 4,380 yards, 34 TDs, 12 INTs

Jones: 246 carries, 996 yards, 5 TDs

Reed: 80 catches, 880 yards, 11 TDs

Jackson: 50 catches, 900 yards, 4 TDs

Garcon: 75 catches, 757 yards, 3 TDs

Doctson: 32 catches, 320 yards, 9 TDs

Crowder: 47 catches, 475 yards, 3 TDs

Monday, February 29, 2016

Five Teams or The Field: Which Way Would You Go?

The Legend and I bet on many sporting events throughout the year. We do a lot of "Foreigners vs Americans" for the golf Majors, we draft teams in all sports, once the playoffs come around, and when the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament rolls around, we usually do something there too.

Which is where we are (almost) now on the sports calendar.

What The Legend has proposed, is an even money wager which has to be decided on (and teams picked) by this Sunday, March 6th. He's allowing me to pick any 5 teams or take the field, to win the Men's Tournament.

I'm leaning towards taking the field, and having him pick the 5 teams. I'm at best a casual fan of college basketball. I definitely prefer it more to the NBA, and don't really start paying attention to it until we get to March, but the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is still one of the greatest sporting events on the calendar, every year.

The experts all think this year's tournament is wide open. I was listening to Jay Bilas the other day (which by the way, he only follows 1 person on Twitter, which is kind of weird), and he really likes Kansas. But other than them, he didn't really have any strong feelings for any of the other teams.

So which way would you go- any 5 teams or The Field?

Sunday, February 7, 2016

Cue Up The Racist Letters to The Editor from Overweight, Lice Infested Slobs from South Georgia: It's Cam and Carolina's Year

"I done wish he'd just flip da ball to da Ref, and not do any of dat nonsense."

Denver vs. Carolina (-5.5)
Over the course of their last two games, Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers' offense put up 80 points. Those last two games just happened to be against the league's #2 and #5 ranked defenses (Seattle and Arizona). In the final game of the 2015 season, they'll face the league's number 1 defense, who is coming off back to back playoff games in which they held their opponents (Pittsburgh and New England) to 20 points or less.

Impressive resumes for both sides. But I just think this is and has been Carolina's year all season, and that freight train is not stopping until about 10:30 EST this evening.

Why might I compare them to a freight train? Well, let's see: their offense led the league in points scored, averaging over 31 points per contest. They were held to less than 20 points just once, in their pretty meaningless Week 16 loss at Atlanta. Wrapped around that Atlanta loss, going back to Week 3 vs. New Orleans, all the way to two weeks ago when they absolutely demolished a very good Arizona team, the Panthers have scored 27 points or more over that entire span........say what??

The Panthers have scored 27 or more points in 15 of their last 16 games. And they've scored 30 or more points in 8 of their last 9. That's actually absurd.

I've had some lingering doubts over the last 48 hours, but my gut has told me for the most part of the last two weeks, that this game could be a 14+ point "blowout", and that I wouldn't even consider Denver unless the line hit 7. And maybe Vegas would've gotten to 7 over the last 48 hours had they not started this line so low (and wrong, in my opinion) , making Carolina an opening (3.5) point favorite, putting themselves in a situation where going to 7 could spell financial "middle" disaster for Sin City. But in reality, I think this line should be 7.5 or 8.

The reality of Denver's last two games were this. They caught Pittsburgh with a banged up Ben Roethlisberger, no Antonio Brown, and both of Pittsburgh's backs injured. And for almost 3.5 quarters of that game, that patched up Steeler team ran circles around Denver's defense. I don't care what the final score was, I know what my eyes told me, and that was that Denver was fortunate to win that game.

And then New England comes to town a couple weeks ago, and I'll give Denver credit. They shut down Tom Brady and his healthy corp of receivers. But Tom Brady, from a mobile point of view, is no Cam Newton. And that will be the difference today when Ware and Miller apply pressure. Newton will be able to improvise with his feet and his large frame, and remind people why he was the league's Top rusher from the Quarterback position.

Finally, let's not forget that the guy under center for Denver is not a 27 year old Peyton Manning. He's a month and a half short of his 40th birthday, Peyton Manning, who has been a little banged up this season, who may or may not have ordered HGH to combat his ailing, aging body, and who barely a month ago, was not even the starter! Don't kid yourself. The whispers in the front offices in Denver between horse toothed John Elway and others, are probably similar to the whispers they had 3-4 years ago when they knew- despite the hype and miracle win against the Steelers- that Tim Tebow was going to be on the first train out of town as soon as the season was over.

I'd like the game to be competitive from a fan's point of view, and I really don't want to see Peyton go out getting the living dog shit kicked out of him, but unfortunately I think that's what will probably happen today. 33-16 Panthers.


Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Another Example of Why the Pro Bowl is a Joke, and The Anti-Redskins Name Movement is Working

I Guess You Just Need to Get Better, Fellas
Regardless of how the Pro Bowl voting is done, it just goes to show you (once again) that Pro Bowls/ All Star Games are nothing more than popularity contests. And since the media, league, and most fans outside of DC have decided that the team name 'Redskins' is not that popular and extremely racist, a player who plays for said racist team name is not going to get any favors. Regardless of how much he pummels his colleagues in essentially every statistical category.

                                   Comp %    Passing YDs  TDs     INTs   Rushing TDs  Passer Rating

Kirk Cousins                 69.8            4,166            29        11            5                   101.6

Tyrod Taylor                  63.7            3,035            20         6            4                     99.4

Teddy Bridgewater        65.3             3,231           14         9            3                      88.7

Oh yeah, Jordan Reed- who missed 2 games during the regular season due to injury- finished 2nd in both TD catches (11) and receptions (87) for all NFL tight ends. He too (apparently) wasn't good enough to participate in the Pro Bowl. 

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Conference Championship Weekend

New England (-3) at Denver
I Got Some Deflated Balls For You, Rodge
I've been preaching this since during the Pittsburgh/Denver game last weekend, and although this line is a bit fishy to me (I expected 3.5 or 4), I'm not going to sway in the 11th hour, against what my own two eyes are telling me: The Denver Broncos will lose today not just because their Quarterback looks like an 85 year old borderline cripple, who probably gets up 3-4 times in the middle of the night to take a piss, but more importantly, because their once #1 ranked defense....SUCKS!

I really don't want to crush on Peyton. He's had a great career, and will be in the "Greatest QBs of All Time" discussion forever. But just like this Jonas Blizzard of 2016, its finally over, Johnny.

Last weekend was painful to watch. And yeah, I know he had like 6 drops, but did you see some of those dying ducks? I've seen tighter spirals at my 8 year old nephew's "C" League game. You've got to put at least half of those drops on the guy whose throwing them. And his arm strength is very limited. I'd expect New England to go man to man beyond 15 yards, and force Manning to beat them underneath, which he can't do, in my opinion.

The big difference, however, will be the before mentioned Denver defense, and the fact that they've fallen statistically. And quite frankly, I think they're simply tired. Here's the deal: over Denver's last 4 games (versus Pittsburgh, San Diego, Cincy, and Pittsburgh again) they've given up 1,384 total yards. That averages out to 346 yards given up per contest. And to put that into its proper context, relative to the end of the year NFL statistics, that is NOT the league's #1 defense. In fact, 346 yards per game would put Denver's defense at 15th, relative to the rest of the league.

Denver's only chance to stick around today, is if they can get a good run game going with Anderson and Hillman. That would at least keep the New England defense off balance, and not force Manning to try and beat them on his own. But again, I think the X-Factor is when New England's offense is on the field. Last week, with a half broken Big Ben and with Antonio Brown not even on the field, I saw a Denver Broncos defense that was run ragged, and a Denver Broncos team that was extremely fortunate to win. Can you imagine what a healthy Tom Brady will be able to do with a healthy Gronk, Edelman, and Amendola? I can. 31-19 Patriots.

Arizona (Money Line +140) at Carolina
Expect A Couple Hook Ups Between These Two Today
It just seems like its Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers' year. They went 15-1, Cam is the league's unquestionable MVP, and Riverboat Ron Captained the ship pretty well over the last 3+ months. However, I think today is the day that Riverboat Ron's ship runs aground. Arizona enters Tobacco Nation with the league's #1 ranked offense,  #5 ranked defense, and they're coming off a game in which yours truly thinks they can't possibly play and coach any worse than they did.

Meanwhile, Carolina did all that they could to not piss away a 31-0 halftime lead to Seattle last week, and unless they can somehow luck box their way to another early 14-17 point lead, this game is going to be low scoring and close right up until the end. And this phenomenon of Carolina getting out to early leads, and then allowing teams to dice it up some towards the end, only for the Panthers to hold on, has been going on all season with them.

It happened against the Saints (twice), the Colts, Green Bay, the Giants, and then last week against Seattle. You'd think by now the Carolina press might've dropped the "Riverboat" moniker and changed it to Cardiac Arrest Ron, with all these 4th quarter sweats he's had to endure.

So maybe this is the week they don't hold on. I just don't like the game much either way, and since I have a monetary interest in Arizona winning the Super Bowl, I'm going to pass on taking the measly 3 points, not pay any juice to the man, and get what I think is a very fair money line number in the (+135) to (+145) range. 23-21 Cardinals.

In honor of Snowstorm Jonas, I was going to embed Weezer's song of the same name. That was until I ran across this cover they did of a Greenday classic. The "Just Say No" folks could just play this video on loop, use it in their ad campaign, and I'm pretty sure the message would be conveyed. Cheers.

Friday, January 15, 2016

NFL Divisional Round, ATS #WINNERS

Kansas City (+5) at New England
Bill Belichek has a mysterious black eye, and his players are dabbling in hallucinogenic drugs- allegedly. This is all set up for Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs to have a feast- no pun intended, Andy- on a Patriots team that will officially (and actually, its already started) see the start of the decline of what was a great sports dynasty. Sorry, Tom. I know you're a 10, and your wife is a 10, and you've recently been quoted saying you'd play 10 more years, but its over Johnny.

Sure, there is an argument to jump all over New England at home in January on two weeks rest against Alex Smith and the before mentioned Andy Reid, but the value here is getting a team who is on an 11 game heater, catching points. Not to mention, New England literally limped into the post season, besides having lost 4 of their last 6 entering this contest. Also noteworthy- Kansas City has rushed for 100+ in 10 of those 11 heater games. If Kansas City scores 14-17 points in the first half, and has a lead midway thru the 3rd quarter, count your chickens (fried, the way Andy likes them), Chief fan. 24-21 Chiefs.

Green Bay (+7) at Arizona
Ride the heater, bettors. The Pack got their groove back in PG County last week, tho to an inferior opponent, but it will propel them Saturday night against a team who absolutely embarrassed them a few weeks ago. I think this game has shootout potential, and could come down to the final drive. I'm rooting for 'Zona, as "Tony" and I have a monetary interest in 'Zona winning the Super Bowl, but I would not expect another 30 point blow out in the desert, and not to sound selfish, but I do hope 'Zona prevails. 34-30 Cardinals.

Seattle at Carolina (-1.5)
Chatting with my boys Rich and Jabby this week, we've concluded that Carolina's 15-1 regular season record might be the most underrated regular season accomplishment, in the history of sports. I mean, shouldn't this be getting a little bit more run? And who cares how Cam Newton celebrates after touchdowns, you racists....Alls I know, is that that nerd Aaron Rodgers has been doing the Double Check whatever the fuck its called for 5 years now, and he gets a free pass, all while looking like a complete horse's ass while doing it. Also, Cam Newton is pretty good, like MVP good.

Seattle has playoff pedigree, but they missed the boat not handing the ball to Marshawn last February, and their 3rd consecutive game on the road- while luckily escaping frigid Minnesota last weekend- finally catches up to them. 30-20 Panthers. 

Pittsburgh at Denver(-7)
The least interesting game to me this weekend, and unlike the 4:40 game last weekend that I wished had been either Saturday night or 1 pm Sunday, I'm glad this game is the weekend 'Capper. Here's the deal, The Legend told me Thursday that The Wynn had this game off the board with all the uncertainty of injury. And my guess is that this game closes at 8 or 8.5. If that's the case, take a pass and watch the first 3 seasons of Bates Motel on Netflix instead. That show is the most entertaining show I've watched, from a story and character POV, since Breaking Bad. Peyton pisses off all the Al Jazeer apologists, and sends Big Hair, Big Ass, Big Truck Nation to bed in a drunken stooper. 26-12 Broncos. 

Saturday, January 9, 2016

Wildcard Weekend Winners and a Netflix Movie

One of the cool things about no longer being in a contest that you blew $1,500 on, is that you're not forced to pick 5 games, regardless of your tingle factor on the card that weekend. For example, last weekend I didn't really care for any of the games, in what was essentially a pretty meaningless Week 17 card of poo-poo football. However, I was in love with the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau, so I gave out a big, fat, money-line winner, and the 4 people who read this blog and bet on my advice, were happy.

I must admit that during the season, regardless of how strong or not I feel about a particular week's card, it is empowering for me to be able to tell The Legend to get in his car and drive his old, cranky ass down to the Westgate for us. But other than that, a lot of weeks I really don't like anything I write in this space. There, I admitted it, suckers.

All Smiles Saturday in Cincy
So that brings us to the second weekend of January, 2016- NFL's Wildcard Weekend, and I only like two of the four games. The first being your Cincinnati Bengals (+3) hosting Big Hair, Big Ass, Big Truck Nation's favorite team, the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Here's the deal. I was going to whip it out for the second weekend in a row, and just tell you to bet the money-line on the 'Gals. And in fact, I already had The Legend do it earlier this week. But for the sake of erring on the safe side, and not getting too big for my $250 True Religion designer jean britches, go ahead and swallow your man's juice- ummm, and take that field goal which I'm hoping "we're" not even going to need.

This game has nothing to do with the fact that Andy Dalton is out again, and more to do with the fact that the Main Stream Media has sold you a bag of fools gold with the Pittsburgh Steelers. In the weeks leading up to the playoffs, every no talent that ESPN employs, whether it was an ex-athlete or just a 145 lb know nothing like Bomani Jones, was telling me in so many words, "YOU DO NOT WANT TO FACE THE PITTSBURGH STEELERS IN ROUND ONE....YADA-YADA-YADA.."

Oh, I don't, huh?  Well, lets see.

Has anyone looked at the Steelers' defense? This is a defense whose ranked 21st overall, 30th against the pass, and whose numbers have actually come down towards the good over the last 6 weeks, as Pittsburgh has had the remarkable fortune of facing 5 straight back up quarterbacks in a row (6 today). This is a Pittsburgh Steeler team whose ass was on the line two weeks ago in Baltimore, but they let a horrible, banged up Ravens team, who was Quarterbacked by Ryan Friggin' Mallett, beat them 20-17. This is a Pittsburgh Steeler team who got a reprieve last weekend, and with a Jets loss and by them simply beating the Browns, they'd back door it into the post season.

So while scoreboard watching and seeing that the Jets were essentially never in the game- as New York never even had a lead- the Steelers were in a dog fight for 3 quarters with the Austin Davis led, going nowhere fast, Cleveland Browns.

Are you kidding me? And I'm supposed to believe- even if A.J. McCarron is under center for Cincy, which is irrelevant here- that this Steeler team is a solid 3 point favorite on the road, against divisional foe Cincinnati, whose head coach is throwing an 0'fer when it comes to playoff games, and he's due like Ian Desmond during a "5 for his last 49" slump?

No thanks, Vegas. I'm pounding the Bengals with the points, and backing it up with a smallish money-line bet. 21-17 Cincinnati.

Aaron Don't Like That
Lastly, I'm going down with my heart and the Burgundy and Gold colored ship. The 4:40 pm EST game on Sunday comes down to basic NFL Handicapping. One team is going in one direction right now, and the other team is going in the other. Redskins (PK)

The Pack is just 4-6 over their last 10. They are an unsuccessful Hail Mary away from being 3-7 during that span, and 3-7 teams generally suck. As I mentioned last week, this 24th ranked Packer offense is the worst offense in Green Bay since 1991. And Aaron Rodgers looks and sounds lost, see and hear the post game presser from last weekend.

Washington, on the other-hand, has won 4 games in a row and 7 of their last 10. Kirk Cousins has been playing, essentially, as good as any Quarterback in the league over the last 6 weeks. Their defense has come up big in spots, and they've got a handful of weapons on offense that present problems week to week for opposing defenses.

Unlike a Washington locker-room that seems to be a perfect mix of chemistry and good will, the Packers just seem like a defeated team and that they're a bit off their axis this year. I actually think this game is going to be a good old fashioned beat down. Redskins 1 will be in the desert next weekend for a date with Carson Palmer. 36-17 Redskins.

******Off Topic******

As everyone rants and raves and screams and complains about the injustice in "Making a Murderer", take a pass on that nonsense and watch a movie on Netflix called "Blue Ruin". Ho-Lee-Shit.....

Here's the deal...this dude, whose basically homeless and living under the boardwalk at Bethany Beach (story takes place there and in Central Virginia), finds out that the shit bag who murdered his parents is being released from prison. So the story revolves around this homeless guy's quest to avenge his parents' deaths, and the conflict he and the murderer's families have had ever since. That's all you need to know. There are no big name actors in the movie, although the girl who played Jan Brady, who is now an old woman, appears in the very end. In any case,  I highly recommend you watch this very intense, under the radar film. And its only 90 minutes long, which is like watching only 1.5 episodes of that bore fest  "Murderer" documentary.  #BDYack

Sunday, January 3, 2016

Update on The Westgate Contest, and My Thoughts on Minnesota/Green Bay

The Legend and I's Westgate Buy-in
For a third straight NFL season, myself and The Legend have come up limp in the Westgate Super Contest. And for a third straight year, my NFL handicapping percentage is below .500. And for someone who went an impressive 69% against the number during the 2011 campaign, the last three years have been as humbling as erectile dysfunction while in a whore house.

Hence the reason I haven't posted the picks this week, or the week before. Because essentially, we're done and have been done.

And although the Westgate does have a $15,000 bonus for whomever does the best over the last 3 weeks of the year, I torpedoed our chances of winning that with my typical 2-3 ATS effort in Week 14. You basically need to go 13-2 or better over the last 3 weeks to have a chance to win the bonus. So dropping three "L"s in the first week of the Bonus contest, essentially sealed our fate. In fact, The Legend told me-in so many words, which included some 'fucks' 'worthless piece of shit' 'no good, know nothing cocksucker'- to not even bother putting in Weeks 16 and 17, and saving him the 25 minute drive to the Strip from his "affluent, gated community" in the burbs of Sin City.

So anyway...

I do have a take on one game today, a game that actually means something in this Week 17 card of mostly worthless, meaningless games. That would be on the Vikings/Packers night cap.

My first take on this game is the point spread, and how fishy and stinky it is. How are the Packers at home- in a win and you're division champs and you have a home playoff game next week- only 3 point faves? How are Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, on National TV under the lights with Al "Point Spread" Michaels and Cris Collinsworth on the call, only laying a field goal to Teddy B. and the Vikes?

You got me. But it stinks.

This line reeks of "Please, general public, jump all over the Packers at home laying just a field goal. We're going to need your money to offset the smart money we're getting on Minnesota."

Secondly, the Packers have not been impressive all year, and the Vikings at times, have. Check that, the Packers were impressive to start the year on a 6-0 heater. But they're just 4-5 since, Aaron Rodgers hasn't looked like Aaron Rodgers, and the Packers offensive line is simply that, offensive. Rodgers has been sacked 41 times on the season, and Arizona put a 9 piece on Green Bay last weekend. As in 9 sacks. In one game.

Green Bay also has what I would call 3 bad losses, although their record only indicates that 2 of those 3 losses occurred. Home losses to the Bears and Lions, and what should've been a season sweeping second loss to Detroit, if not for that miracle Hail Mary at the end.

Minnesota has been really impressive all year, with maybe the exception of two games- home losses to Seattle and these Green Bay Packers. But they competed on the road in 3 point losses to very good Arizona and Denver teams, and now they have a chance to reach 11 wins for the year, avenging the before mentioned loss to their divisional foe.

Teddy Bridgewater has been on a major heater lately, playing almost as good as anyone in the league over the last 3 weeks. He's completed 70% of his passes, thrown 6 TDs to Zero INTs, and his 123.2 QB Rating is only second to Kirk Cousins over that span.

This is not your Aaron Rodgers team of old, Packer fan. They're 24th in the league in total offense, which is the worst a Packer offense has been since before the Brett Favre era, 1991. Do yourself a favor, and tell your man to stick the juice where the sun don't shine. Never mind the point spread, and taking what will be a meaningless 3 points. Swallow up the value, and pound the Vikings on the money line. 27-23 Vikings. 

Rich Turpin's Very Super Forecast: The 2017 Washington Redskins

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