Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Another Example of Why the Pro Bowl is a Joke, and The Anti-Redskins Name Movement is Working

I Guess You Just Need to Get Better, Fellas
Regardless of how the Pro Bowl voting is done, it just goes to show you (once again) that Pro Bowls/ All Star Games are nothing more than popularity contests. And since the media, league, and most fans outside of DC have decided that the team name 'Redskins' is not that popular and extremely racist, a player who plays for said racist team name is not going to get any favors. Regardless of how much he pummels his colleagues in essentially every statistical category.

                                   Comp %    Passing YDs  TDs     INTs   Rushing TDs  Passer Rating

Kirk Cousins                 69.8            4,166            29        11            5                   101.6

Tyrod Taylor                  63.7            3,035            20         6            4                     99.4

Teddy Bridgewater        65.3             3,231           14         9            3                      88.7

Oh yeah, Jordan Reed- who missed 2 games during the regular season due to injury- finished 2nd in both TD catches (11) and receptions (87) for all NFL tight ends. He too (apparently) wasn't good enough to participate in the Pro Bowl. 

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Conference Championship Weekend

New England (-3) at Denver
I Got Some Deflated Balls For You, Rodge
I've been preaching this since during the Pittsburgh/Denver game last weekend, and although this line is a bit fishy to me (I expected 3.5 or 4), I'm not going to sway in the 11th hour, against what my own two eyes are telling me: The Denver Broncos will lose today not just because their Quarterback looks like an 85 year old borderline cripple, who probably gets up 3-4 times in the middle of the night to take a piss, but more importantly, because their once #1 ranked defense....SUCKS!

I really don't want to crush on Peyton. He's had a great career, and will be in the "Greatest QBs of All Time" discussion forever. But just like this Jonas Blizzard of 2016, its finally over, Johnny.

Last weekend was painful to watch. And yeah, I know he had like 6 drops, but did you see some of those dying ducks? I've seen tighter spirals at my 8 year old nephew's "C" League game. You've got to put at least half of those drops on the guy whose throwing them. And his arm strength is very limited. I'd expect New England to go man to man beyond 15 yards, and force Manning to beat them underneath, which he can't do, in my opinion.

The big difference, however, will be the before mentioned Denver defense, and the fact that they've fallen statistically. And quite frankly, I think they're simply tired. Here's the deal: over Denver's last 4 games (versus Pittsburgh, San Diego, Cincy, and Pittsburgh again) they've given up 1,384 total yards. That averages out to 346 yards given up per contest. And to put that into its proper context, relative to the end of the year NFL statistics, that is NOT the league's #1 defense. In fact, 346 yards per game would put Denver's defense at 15th, relative to the rest of the league.

Denver's only chance to stick around today, is if they can get a good run game going with Anderson and Hillman. That would at least keep the New England defense off balance, and not force Manning to try and beat them on his own. But again, I think the X-Factor is when New England's offense is on the field. Last week, with a half broken Big Ben and with Antonio Brown not even on the field, I saw a Denver Broncos defense that was run ragged, and a Denver Broncos team that was extremely fortunate to win. Can you imagine what a healthy Tom Brady will be able to do with a healthy Gronk, Edelman, and Amendola? I can. 31-19 Patriots.

Arizona (Money Line +140) at Carolina
Expect A Couple Hook Ups Between These Two Today
It just seems like its Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers' year. They went 15-1, Cam is the league's unquestionable MVP, and Riverboat Ron Captained the ship pretty well over the last 3+ months. However, I think today is the day that Riverboat Ron's ship runs aground. Arizona enters Tobacco Nation with the league's #1 ranked offense,  #5 ranked defense, and they're coming off a game in which yours truly thinks they can't possibly play and coach any worse than they did.

Meanwhile, Carolina did all that they could to not piss away a 31-0 halftime lead to Seattle last week, and unless they can somehow luck box their way to another early 14-17 point lead, this game is going to be low scoring and close right up until the end. And this phenomenon of Carolina getting out to early leads, and then allowing teams to dice it up some towards the end, only for the Panthers to hold on, has been going on all season with them.

It happened against the Saints (twice), the Colts, Green Bay, the Giants, and then last week against Seattle. You'd think by now the Carolina press might've dropped the "Riverboat" moniker and changed it to Cardiac Arrest Ron, with all these 4th quarter sweats he's had to endure.

So maybe this is the week they don't hold on. I just don't like the game much either way, and since I have a monetary interest in Arizona winning the Super Bowl, I'm going to pass on taking the measly 3 points, not pay any juice to the man, and get what I think is a very fair money line number in the (+135) to (+145) range. 23-21 Cardinals.

In honor of Snowstorm Jonas, I was going to embed Weezer's song of the same name. That was until I ran across this cover they did of a Greenday classic. The "Just Say No" folks could just play this video on loop, use it in their ad campaign, and I'm pretty sure the message would be conveyed. Cheers.

Friday, January 15, 2016

NFL Divisional Round, ATS #WINNERS

Kansas City (+5) at New England
Bill Belichek has a mysterious black eye, and his players are dabbling in hallucinogenic drugs- allegedly. This is all set up for Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs to have a feast- no pun intended, Andy- on a Patriots team that will officially (and actually, its already started) see the start of the decline of what was a great sports dynasty. Sorry, Tom. I know you're a 10, and your wife is a 10, and you've recently been quoted saying you'd play 10 more years, but its over Johnny.

Sure, there is an argument to jump all over New England at home in January on two weeks rest against Alex Smith and the before mentioned Andy Reid, but the value here is getting a team who is on an 11 game heater, catching points. Not to mention, New England literally limped into the post season, besides having lost 4 of their last 6 entering this contest. Also noteworthy- Kansas City has rushed for 100+ in 10 of those 11 heater games. If Kansas City scores 14-17 points in the first half, and has a lead midway thru the 3rd quarter, count your chickens (fried, the way Andy likes them), Chief fan. 24-21 Chiefs.

Green Bay (+7) at Arizona
Ride the heater, bettors. The Pack got their groove back in PG County last week, tho to an inferior opponent, but it will propel them Saturday night against a team who absolutely embarrassed them a few weeks ago. I think this game has shootout potential, and could come down to the final drive. I'm rooting for 'Zona, as "Tony" and I have a monetary interest in 'Zona winning the Super Bowl, but I would not expect another 30 point blow out in the desert, and not to sound selfish, but I do hope 'Zona prevails. 34-30 Cardinals.

Seattle at Carolina (-1.5)
Chatting with my boys Rich and Jabby this week, we've concluded that Carolina's 15-1 regular season record might be the most underrated regular season accomplishment, in the history of sports. I mean, shouldn't this be getting a little bit more run? And who cares how Cam Newton celebrates after touchdowns, you racists....Alls I know, is that that nerd Aaron Rodgers has been doing the Double Check whatever the fuck its called for 5 years now, and he gets a free pass, all while looking like a complete horse's ass while doing it. Also, Cam Newton is pretty good, like MVP good.

Seattle has playoff pedigree, but they missed the boat not handing the ball to Marshawn last February, and their 3rd consecutive game on the road- while luckily escaping frigid Minnesota last weekend- finally catches up to them. 30-20 Panthers. 

Pittsburgh at Denver(-7)
The least interesting game to me this weekend, and unlike the 4:40 game last weekend that I wished had been either Saturday night or 1 pm Sunday, I'm glad this game is the weekend 'Capper. Here's the deal, The Legend told me Thursday that The Wynn had this game off the board with all the uncertainty of injury. And my guess is that this game closes at 8 or 8.5. If that's the case, take a pass and watch the first 3 seasons of Bates Motel on Netflix instead. That show is the most entertaining show I've watched, from a story and character POV, since Breaking Bad. Peyton pisses off all the Al Jazeer apologists, and sends Big Hair, Big Ass, Big Truck Nation to bed in a drunken stooper. 26-12 Broncos. 

Saturday, January 9, 2016

Wildcard Weekend Winners and a Netflix Movie

One of the cool things about no longer being in a contest that you blew $1,500 on, is that you're not forced to pick 5 games, regardless of your tingle factor on the card that weekend. For example, last weekend I didn't really care for any of the games, in what was essentially a pretty meaningless Week 17 card of poo-poo football. However, I was in love with the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau, so I gave out a big, fat, money-line winner, and the 4 people who read this blog and bet on my advice, were happy.

I must admit that during the season, regardless of how strong or not I feel about a particular week's card, it is empowering for me to be able to tell The Legend to get in his car and drive his old, cranky ass down to the Westgate for us. But other than that, a lot of weeks I really don't like anything I write in this space. There, I admitted it, suckers.

All Smiles Saturday in Cincy
So that brings us to the second weekend of January, 2016- NFL's Wildcard Weekend, and I only like two of the four games. The first being your Cincinnati Bengals (+3) hosting Big Hair, Big Ass, Big Truck Nation's favorite team, the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Here's the deal. I was going to whip it out for the second weekend in a row, and just tell you to bet the money-line on the 'Gals. And in fact, I already had The Legend do it earlier this week. But for the sake of erring on the safe side, and not getting too big for my $250 True Religion designer jean britches, go ahead and swallow your man's juice- ummm, and take that field goal which I'm hoping "we're" not even going to need.

This game has nothing to do with the fact that Andy Dalton is out again, and more to do with the fact that the Main Stream Media has sold you a bag of fools gold with the Pittsburgh Steelers. In the weeks leading up to the playoffs, every no talent that ESPN employs, whether it was an ex-athlete or just a 145 lb know nothing like Bomani Jones, was telling me in so many words, "YOU DO NOT WANT TO FACE THE PITTSBURGH STEELERS IN ROUND ONE....YADA-YADA-YADA.."

Oh, I don't, huh?  Well, lets see.

Has anyone looked at the Steelers' defense? This is a defense whose ranked 21st overall, 30th against the pass, and whose numbers have actually come down towards the good over the last 6 weeks, as Pittsburgh has had the remarkable fortune of facing 5 straight back up quarterbacks in a row (6 today). This is a Pittsburgh Steeler team whose ass was on the line two weeks ago in Baltimore, but they let a horrible, banged up Ravens team, who was Quarterbacked by Ryan Friggin' Mallett, beat them 20-17. This is a Pittsburgh Steeler team who got a reprieve last weekend, and with a Jets loss and by them simply beating the Browns, they'd back door it into the post season.

So while scoreboard watching and seeing that the Jets were essentially never in the game- as New York never even had a lead- the Steelers were in a dog fight for 3 quarters with the Austin Davis led, going nowhere fast, Cleveland Browns.

Are you kidding me? And I'm supposed to believe- even if A.J. McCarron is under center for Cincy, which is irrelevant here- that this Steeler team is a solid 3 point favorite on the road, against divisional foe Cincinnati, whose head coach is throwing an 0'fer when it comes to playoff games, and he's due like Ian Desmond during a "5 for his last 49" slump?

No thanks, Vegas. I'm pounding the Bengals with the points, and backing it up with a smallish money-line bet. 21-17 Cincinnati.

Aaron Don't Like That
Lastly, I'm going down with my heart and the Burgundy and Gold colored ship. The 4:40 pm EST game on Sunday comes down to basic NFL Handicapping. One team is going in one direction right now, and the other team is going in the other. Redskins (PK)

The Pack is just 4-6 over their last 10. They are an unsuccessful Hail Mary away from being 3-7 during that span, and 3-7 teams generally suck. As I mentioned last week, this 24th ranked Packer offense is the worst offense in Green Bay since 1991. And Aaron Rodgers looks and sounds lost, see and hear the post game presser from last weekend.

Washington, on the other-hand, has won 4 games in a row and 7 of their last 10. Kirk Cousins has been playing, essentially, as good as any Quarterback in the league over the last 6 weeks. Their defense has come up big in spots, and they've got a handful of weapons on offense that present problems week to week for opposing defenses.

Unlike a Washington locker-room that seems to be a perfect mix of chemistry and good will, the Packers just seem like a defeated team and that they're a bit off their axis this year. I actually think this game is going to be a good old fashioned beat down. Redskins 1 will be in the desert next weekend for a date with Carson Palmer. 36-17 Redskins.

******Off Topic******

As everyone rants and raves and screams and complains about the injustice in "Making a Murderer", take a pass on that nonsense and watch a movie on Netflix called "Blue Ruin". Ho-Lee-Shit.....

Here's the deal...this dude, whose basically homeless and living under the boardwalk at Bethany Beach (story takes place there and in Central Virginia), finds out that the shit bag who murdered his parents is being released from prison. So the story revolves around this homeless guy's quest to avenge his parents' deaths, and the conflict he and the murderer's families have had ever since. That's all you need to know. There are no big name actors in the movie, although the girl who played Jan Brady, who is now an old woman, appears in the very end. In any case,  I highly recommend you watch this very intense, under the radar film. And its only 90 minutes long, which is like watching only 1.5 episodes of that bore fest  "Murderer" documentary.  #BDYack

Sunday, January 3, 2016

Update on The Westgate Contest, and My Thoughts on Minnesota/Green Bay

The Legend and I's Westgate Buy-in
For a third straight NFL season, myself and The Legend have come up limp in the Westgate Super Contest. And for a third straight year, my NFL handicapping percentage is below .500. And for someone who went an impressive 69% against the number during the 2011 campaign, the last three years have been as humbling as erectile dysfunction while in a whore house.

Hence the reason I haven't posted the picks this week, or the week before. Because essentially, we're done and have been done.

And although the Westgate does have a $15,000 bonus for whomever does the best over the last 3 weeks of the year, I torpedoed our chances of winning that with my typical 2-3 ATS effort in Week 14. You basically need to go 13-2 or better over the last 3 weeks to have a chance to win the bonus. So dropping three "L"s in the first week of the Bonus contest, essentially sealed our fate. In fact, The Legend told me-in so many words, which included some 'fucks' 'worthless piece of shit' 'no good, know nothing cocksucker'- to not even bother putting in Weeks 16 and 17, and saving him the 25 minute drive to the Strip from his "affluent, gated community" in the burbs of Sin City.

So anyway...

I do have a take on one game today, a game that actually means something in this Week 17 card of mostly worthless, meaningless games. That would be on the Vikings/Packers night cap.

My first take on this game is the point spread, and how fishy and stinky it is. How are the Packers at home- in a win and you're division champs and you have a home playoff game next week- only 3 point faves? How are Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, on National TV under the lights with Al "Point Spread" Michaels and Cris Collinsworth on the call, only laying a field goal to Teddy B. and the Vikes?

You got me. But it stinks.

This line reeks of "Please, general public, jump all over the Packers at home laying just a field goal. We're going to need your money to offset the smart money we're getting on Minnesota."

Secondly, the Packers have not been impressive all year, and the Vikings at times, have. Check that, the Packers were impressive to start the year on a 6-0 heater. But they're just 4-5 since, Aaron Rodgers hasn't looked like Aaron Rodgers, and the Packers offensive line is simply that, offensive. Rodgers has been sacked 41 times on the season, and Arizona put a 9 piece on Green Bay last weekend. As in 9 sacks. In one game.

Green Bay also has what I would call 3 bad losses, although their record only indicates that 2 of those 3 losses occurred. Home losses to the Bears and Lions, and what should've been a season sweeping second loss to Detroit, if not for that miracle Hail Mary at the end.

Minnesota has been really impressive all year, with maybe the exception of two games- home losses to Seattle and these Green Bay Packers. But they competed on the road in 3 point losses to very good Arizona and Denver teams, and now they have a chance to reach 11 wins for the year, avenging the before mentioned loss to their divisional foe.

Teddy Bridgewater has been on a major heater lately, playing almost as good as anyone in the league over the last 3 weeks. He's completed 70% of his passes, thrown 6 TDs to Zero INTs, and his 123.2 QB Rating is only second to Kirk Cousins over that span.

This is not your Aaron Rodgers team of old, Packer fan. They're 24th in the league in total offense, which is the worst a Packer offense has been since before the Brett Favre era, 1991. Do yourself a favor, and tell your man to stick the juice where the sun don't shine. Never mind the point spread, and taking what will be a meaningless 3 points. Swallow up the value, and pound the Vikings on the money line. 27-23 Vikings. 

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